NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SJ

DAL

26-10-9

23-18-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 10FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-1VegasDAL -162

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks held off Dallas Stars, 5–4 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Mikko Rantanen

RW · #96

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

DAL26-10-9

SJ23-18-3

DAL26-10-9SJ23-18-3

DAL

26-10-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

23-18-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

DAL wins series 2-1

Dec 6

SJ1@

DAL4

Dec 19

DAL5@

SJ3

Jan 10

DAL4@

SJ5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-16262%

SJ+13642%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat DAL 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
DAL	2	1	1	0	4
SJ	0	2	2	1	5

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · SJ won 3

DAL

Play-by-play · 283 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:58
Game End
DAL 4·SJ 5
OT·1:58
End of OT
DAL 4·SJ 5
OT·1:58
Tyler Toffoli Goal (13) Slap Shot, assists: William Eklund (18), Macklin Celebrini (46)
· ·
DAL 4·SJ 5
OT·1:52
Tyler Toffoli Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:47
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:24
Sam Steel faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:24
Puck in Netting
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:17
Macklin Celebrini Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:03
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Sam Steel
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:03
Puck in Netting
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·1:01
Macklin Celebrini shot blocked by Sam Steel
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·0:57
Sam Steel faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·0:57
Mikko Rantanen Holding against Alexander Wennberg
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·0:46
Dmitry Orlov hit Mikko Rantanen
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·0:00
Roope Hintz faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:41
Esa Lindell shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:26
Wyatt Johnston Backhand saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
· ·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:20
Pavol Regenda Wrist Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·19:08
Giveaway by Tyler Toffoli
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·18:10
Macklin Celebrini hit Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·17:36
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Adam Gaudette
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:24
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Sam Steel
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:24
Icing
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·16:17
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Macklin Celebrini
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:44
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:44
Puck in Netting
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:01
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
DAL 4·SJ 4
3rd·15:01
Adam Gaudette Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Sam Dickinson (4), Collin Graf (12)
· ·
DAL 4·SJ 4

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -162/SJ +136

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 skaters with EDGE

Roope HintzDAL · C
BURSTS25998
Timothy LiljegrenWSH · D
SKATE MPH22.685

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · SJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

SJ vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 141 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands