Live · 1
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

23-13-3

43
ANA

ANA

21-16-3

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLWed, Dec 31FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-0VegasTB -155

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Anaheim Ducks and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

ANA +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Brandon Hagel

Brandon Hagel

LW · #38

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

ANA
Jansen Harkins

Jansen Harkins

C · #24

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
TB23-13-3ANA21-16-3
TB

TB

23-13-3

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
ANA

ANA

21-16-3

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

TB wins series 2-0

Oct 25ANAANA3@TBTB4
Dec 31TBTB4@ANAANA3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-15561%
ANAANA+13043%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat ANA 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
TB11114
ANA01203

Period scoring

TB won 2 · ANA won 1

1
0

1

1
1

2

1
2

3

1
0

OT

TB
ANA

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·2:47

    Game End

    TB 4·ANA 3

  2. OT·2:47

    End of OT

    TB 4·ANA 3

  3. OT·2:47

    Darren Raddysh Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (16), Andrei Vasilevskiy (1)

    · ·

    TB 4·ANA 3

  4. OT·2:28

    Anthony Cirelli Wrist Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  5. OT·2:26

    Anthony Cirelli Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  6. OT·2:25

    Giveaway by Lukas Dostal

    TB 3·ANA 3

  7. OT·1:55

    Takeaway by Jacob Trouba

    TB 3·ANA 3

  8. OT·1:25

    Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  9. OT·1:08

    Cutter Gauthier Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  10. OT·0:58

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  11. OT·0:58

    Puck in Netting

    TB 3·ANA 3

  12. OT·0:56

    Troy Terry shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  13. OT·0:00

    Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  14. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    TB 3·ANA 3

  15. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 3·ANA 3

  16. 3rd·19:51

    Takeaway by Troy Terry

    TB 3·ANA 3

  17. 3rd·18:33

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Beckett Sennecke

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  18. 3rd·17:49

    Giveaway by Drew Helleson

    TB 3·ANA 3

  19. 3rd·17:36

    Takeaway by Pontus Holmberg

    TB 3·ANA 3

  20. 3rd·17:20

    Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  21. 3rd·17:20

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 3·ANA 3

  22. 3rd·17:17

    Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  23. 3rd·17:13

    Pontus Holmberg faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  24. 3rd·17:13

    Hand Pass

    TB 3·ANA 3

  25. 3rd·16:53

    Brandon Hagel Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  26. 3rd·16:32

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  27. 3rd·16:13

    Nick Paul faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  28. 3rd·16:13

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 3·ANA 3

  29. 3rd·16:11

    Nikita Kucherov Slap Shot saved by Lukas Dostal

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

  30. 3rd·15:54

    Jacob Trouba hit Jake Guentzel

    ·

    TB 3·ANA 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

29

Shots

28

33.3

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

6

21

Faceoffs W

34

12

Blocks

12

15

Giveaways

22

6

Takeaways

6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -155/ANA +130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Jackson LaCombeANA · D
    DIST MI47.993
  • Cutter GauthierANA · LW
    SHOT MPH89.691
  • Alex KillornANA · LW
    SHOT MPH88.385
  • Ian MooreANA · D
    SKATE MPH22.284

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · ANA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(ANA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+130

Close price

+130

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

41.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR