Jan 24, 26sim 95
202
4(H)1
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1STL
TB
29-13-4
23
STL
19-21-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
t. Louis Blues held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 3–2.
STL +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TB · top performer
Nikita Kucherov
RW · #86
2Points
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
STL · top performer
Nick Bjugstad
C · #77
1Points
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final/SO
TB29-13-4
23
STL19-21-8
TB29-13-4STL19-21-8
TB
29-13-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
STL
19-21-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
4
PIM
6
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Dec 23STL1@TB4
STL1@TB4Jan 17TB2@STL3today
TB2@STL3todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
TB-20567%STL+17037%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
STL beat TB 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | SO | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Period scoring
TB won 1 · STL won 2
0
2
1
2
0
2
0
0
3
0
0
OT
0
1
SO
TB
STL
Play-by-play · 332 plays
period
event
player
- SO·0:00
Game End
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
End of OT
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
End of Shootout
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Nikita Kucherov Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Jordan Kyrou Goal Backhand
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Jake Neighbours Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Gage Goncalves Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
TB 0·STL 1
- SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
TB 0·STL 1
- OT·5:00
End of OT
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·4:58
Brayden Schenn faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·4:58
Puck in Netting
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·4:56
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·4:00
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·3:21
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by J.J. Moser
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·3:18
Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·3:11
Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·2:53
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·2:53
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·2:50
Jordan Kyrou Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·1:35
Takeaway by Justin Faulk
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·1:32
Justin Faulk Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·1:01
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:58
Nick Paul faceoff won against Nick Bjugstad
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:58
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:56
Darren Raddysh Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:28
Pavel Buchnevich Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:15
Philip Broberg shot blocked by Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:00
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
TB 2·STL 2
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
TB 2·STL 2
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
STL
Home
36
Shots
21
66.7
PCT
0.0
4
PIM
6
35
Faceoffs W
30
10
Blocks
10
18
Giveaways
12
3
Takeaways
8
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 5.5·TB -205/STL +170
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Philip BrobergSTL · DBURSTS15898
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RWSHOT MPH95.697
Colton ParaykoSTL · DBURSTS9494
Cam FowlerSTL · DDIST MI260.294
Pavel BuchnevichSTL · LWDIST MI234.892
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+170
Close price
+170
Open no-vig
35.5%
Close no-vig
35.5%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Player projections
STL vs TB.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 123 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Nikita KucherovTB3.5± 2.3high
- Brandon HagelTB3.2± 1.4high
- Dylan HollowaySTL3.1± 1.3high
Goals
- Robert ThomasSTL0.7± 1.2high
- Brandon HagelTB0.6± 0.8high
- Dylan HollowaySTL0.4± 0.8high
Points
- Robert ThomasSTL1.4± 1.1high
- Dylan HollowaySTL1.2± 1.1high
- Nikita KucherovTB1.1± 0.9high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands