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FINAL+1TB
TB

TB

32-13-4

21
CHI

CHI

21-22-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 23FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -310

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning went into Chicago Blackhawks and beat them, 2–1.

CHI +1.5 cashed (TB won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Anthony Cirelli

Anthony Cirelli

C · #71

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

CHI · top performer

CHI
Ryan Greene

Ryan Greene

C · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
1
TB32-13-4CHI21-22-8
TB

TB

32-13-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CHI

CHI

21-22-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

11

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 23CHICHI3@TBTB2
Jan 24TBTB2@CHICHI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-31076%
CHICHI+25029%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat CHI 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
TB010012
CHI100001

Period scoring

TB won 2 · CHI won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

0
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

TB
CHI

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    TB 3·CHI 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    TB 3·CHI 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    TB 3·CHI 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Dominic James Goal Wrist Shot

    TB 3·CHI 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Oliver Moore Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 3·CHI 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Gage Goncalves Goal Wrist Shot

    TB 3·CHI 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Louis Crevier Goal Backhand

    TB 3·CHI 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Jake Guentzel Backhand saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    TB 3·CHI 2

  9. SO·0:00

    Frank Nazar Goal Wrist Shot

    TB 3·CHI 2

  10. SO·0:00

    Nikita Kucherov Goal Wrist Shot

    TB 3·CHI 2

  11. SO·0:00

    Connor Bedard Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 3·CHI 2

  12. SO·0:00

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Wrist Shot saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    TB 3·CHI 2

  13. SO·0:00

    Nick Lardis Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 3·CHI 2

  14. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    TB 3·CHI 2

  15. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    TB 1·CHI 1

  16. OT·4:58

    Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Darren Raddysh

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  17. OT·4:41

    Yanni Gourde hit Artyom Levshunov

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  18. OT·4:15

    Andre Burakovsky Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  19. OT·3:45

    Takeaway by Frank Nazar

    TB 1·CHI 1

  20. OT·3:39

    Gage Goncalves Backhand saved by Arvid Soderblom

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  21. OT·2:52

    Wyatt Kaiser Deflected saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  22. OT·2:37

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  23. OT·2:37

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 1·CHI 1

  24. OT·2:35

    Nick Lardis Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  25. OT·2:22

    Nick Lardis Slap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  26. OT·2:15

    Nick Lardis shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  27. OT·1:50

    Ilya Mikheyev hit Brandon Hagel

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  28. OT·1:46

    Andre Burakovsky Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  29. OT·1:45

    Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

  30. OT·0:00

    Frank Nazar faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    TB 1·CHI 1

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

31

Shots

19

0.0

PCT

0.0

11

PIM

11

20

Faceoffs W

18

10

Blocks

13

16

Giveaways

20

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -310/CHI +250

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Louis CrevierCHI · D
    SHOT MPH102.899
  • Connor BedardCHI · C
    BURSTS19595
  • Alex VlasicCHI · D
    BURSTS7190
  • Ryan DonatoCHI · C
    SHOT MPH91.388
  • Wyatt KaiserCHI · D
    BURSTS6587

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+250

Close price

+250

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

27.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR