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FINAL+1NSH
COL

COL

21-2-7

34
NSH

NSH

11-14-4

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLTue, Dec 9FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCOL -205

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators held off Colorado Avalanche, 4–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (COL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
4
COL21-2-7NSH11-14-4
COL

COL

21-2-7

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

11-14-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 23COLCOL3@NSHNSH0
Dec 10COLCOL3@NSHNSH4today
Dec 14NSHNSH2@COLCOL4
Jan 17NSHNSH7@COLCOL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-20567%
NSHNSH+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat COL 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
COL201003
NSH201014

Period scoring

COL won 0 · NSH won 1

2
2

1

0
0

2

1
1

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

COL
NSH

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    COL 0·NSH 1

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    COL 0·NSH 1

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    COL 0·NSH 1

  4. SO·0:00

    Gabriel Landeskog Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·NSH 1

  5. SO·0:00

    Steven Stamkos Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·NSH 1

  6. SO·0:00

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    COL 0·NSH 1

  7. SO·0:00

    Filip Forsberg Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    COL 0·NSH 1

  8. SO·0:00

    Martin Necas Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    COL 0·NSH 1

  9. SO·0:00

    Ryan O'Reilly Goal Snap Shot

    COL 0·NSH 1

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    COL 0·NSH 1

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    COL 3·NSH 3

  12. OT·4:55

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  13. OT·4:46

    Fedor Svechkov shot blocked by Victor Olofsson

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  14. OT·4:28

    Victor Olofsson Tip-In saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  15. OT·4:15

    Takeaway by Martin Necas

    COL 3·NSH 3

  16. OT·3:58

    Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  17. OT·3:22

    Nathan MacKinnon Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  18. OT·2:58

    Roman Josi Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  19. OT·2:33

    Adam Wilsby Wrist Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  20. OT·2:25

    Steven Stamkos Snap Shot saved by Scott Wedgewood

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  21. OT·1:32

    Nathan MacKinnon Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  22. OT·0:12

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  23. OT·0:00

    Brock Nelson faceoff won against Steven Stamkos

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  24. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    COL 3·NSH 3

  25. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·NSH 3

  26. 3rd·19:52

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  27. 3rd·19:52

    Cale Makar Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Martin Necas (27), Nathan MacKinnon (27)

    · ·

    COL 3·NSH 3

  28. 3rd·19:30

    Cale Makar Slap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    COL 2·NSH 3

  29. 3rd·19:17

    Gabriel Landeskog faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly

    ·

    COL 2·NSH 3

  30. 3rd·19:17

    Goalie Stopped

    COL 2·NSH 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

42

Shots

31

25.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

8

32

Faceoffs W

32

7

Blocks

18

16

Giveaways

14

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -205/NSH +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR