Dec 20, 25sim 98
62
30(H)5
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+1MTL
MTL
23-13-6
43
DAL
25-9-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens went into Dallas Stars and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.
MTL +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MTL · top performer
Phillip Danault
C · #24
2Points
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
DAL · top performer
Wyatt Johnston
C · #53
2Points
2
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE
Final / OT
MTL23-13-6
43
DAL25-9-8
MTL23-13-6DAL25-9-8
MTL
23-13-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DAL
25-9-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
10
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Nov 14DAL7@MTL0
DAL7@MTL0Jan 4MTL4@DAL3today
MTL4@DAL3todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DAL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MTL+15439%DAL-18565%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 13 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat DAL 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| DAL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
MTL won 2 · DAL won 1
1
1
1
2
1
2
0
1
3
1
0
OT
MTL
DAL
Play-by-play · 286 plays
period
event
player
- OT·3:40
Game End
MTL 4·DAL 3
- OT·3:40
End of OT
MTL 4·DAL 3
- OT·3:40
Lane Hutson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (7)
·
MTL 4·DAL 3
- OT·3:33
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·3:33
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·3:31
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Thomas Harley
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·3:23
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·3:12
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·2:18
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·2:07
Wyatt Johnston Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:55
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:55
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:53
Nick Suzuki Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:39
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:39
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:37
Matt Duchene Snap Shot saved by Samuel Montembeault
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·1:24
Juraj Slafkovský Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·0:58
Mike Matheson Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·0:42
Giveaway by Thomas Harley
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·0:00
Mikko Rantanen faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·19:34
Joseph Veleno hit Esa Lindell
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Mikko Rantanen
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·18:30
Takeaway by Ilya Lyubushkin
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·16:00
Alexandre Texier faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·16:00
Wyatt Johnston Hooking against Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·15:55
Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·15:54
Mikko Rantanen shot blocked by Oliver Kapanen
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
- 3rd·14:49
Oliver Kapanen faceoff won against Roope Hintz
·
MTL 3·DAL 3
Team stats
MTL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
28
Shots
27
20.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
10
19
Faceoffs W
26
13
Blocks
16
14
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
7
Betting line
DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +154/DAL -185
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Arber XhekajMTL · DSHOT MPH98.598
Roope HintzDAL · CBURSTS25998
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs MTL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
144
projections · 132 high confidence
Shots on goal
- Jason RobertsonDAL3.9± 2.0high
- Cole CaufieldMTL2.8± 1.4high
- Wyatt JohnstonDAL2.7± 1.8high
Goals
- Jason RobertsonDAL0.8± 0.6high
- Wyatt JohnstonDAL0.6± 0.7high
- Cole CaufieldMTL0.5± 0.5high
Points
- Jason RobertsonDAL1.3± 0.9high
- Matt DucheneDAL1.2± 1.2high
- Mikko RantanenDAL1.1± 0.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands