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FINAL+1CAR
CAR

CAR

20-9-2

43
PHI

PHI

16-9-5

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLSat, Dec 13FinalSeriesCAR leads series 2-0VegasCAR -180

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–3.

PHI +1.5 cashed (CAR won by 1). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nikolaj Ehlers

LW · #27

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trevor Zegras

Trevor Zegras

C · #46

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
3
CAR20-9-2PHI16-9-5
CAR

CAR

20-9-2

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

16-9-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

0

PIM

4

Playoff series

May 3PHIPHI0@CARCAR3
May 4PHIPHI2@CARCAR3
May 8CARCAR4@PHIPHI1
May 9CARCAR3@PHIPHI2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-18064%
PHIPHI+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
CAR021014
PHI201003

Period scoring

CAR won 2 · PHI won 1

0
2

1

2
0

2

1
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

CAR
PHI

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Jackson Blake Goal Wrist Shot

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Bobby Brink Wrist Shot saved by Pyotr Kochetkov

    ·

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Sebastian Aho Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Pyotr Kochetkov

    ·

    CAR 1·PHI 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Andrei Svechnikov Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 0·PHI 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Matvei Michkov Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 0·PHI 0

  10. SO·0:00

    Seth Jarvis Backhand saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    CAR 0·PHI 0

  11. SO·0:00

    Trevor Zegras Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 0·PHI 0

  12. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    CAR 0·PHI 0

  13. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  14. OT·4:50

    Jordan Staal Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  15. OT·4:31

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  16. OT·4:31

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  17. OT·4:28

    Trevor Zegras Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  18. OT·3:37

    Seth Jarvis Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  19. OT·3:34

    Giveaway by Travis Sanheim

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  20. OT·3:29

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Seth Jarvis

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  21. OT·3:29

    Goalie Stopped

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  22. OT·3:28

    Shayne Gostisbehere Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  23. OT·2:37

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Emil Andrae

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  24. OT·1:52

    Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  25. OT·1:52

    Off-side

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  26. OT·0:58

    Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  27. OT·0:58

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  28. OT·0:56

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Seth Jarvis

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  29. OT·0:00

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·PHI 3

  30. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    CAR 3·PHI 3

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

21

Shots

18

0.0

PCT

0.0

0

PIM

4

27

Faceoffs W

35

3

Blocks

21

13

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·CAR -180/PHI +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+150

Close price

+150

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

38.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR