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PIT#15 · American Football Conference
Pittsburgh Steelers
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#16 of 32
Elo rating 1518.7 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-15 → 2026-01-12 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 13 vs MIA, 28-15, 2025-12-15. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 5 at DET, 29-24, 2025-12-21. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 7 at CLE, 6-13, 2025-12-28. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
Won by 2 vs BAL, 26-24, 2026-01-04. Covered the spread (latest line).
Lost by 24 vs HOU, 6-30, 2026-01-12. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 14th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 878 graded plays; the defense ranked 18th across 943.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
878 off plays · 943 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.039
Team EPA per play
14th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
+0.015
Team EPA per play allowed
18th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split878/943 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays+0.03958
14th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG -0.023 (20th)
Success44.4%48
17th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 41.0% (24th)
Explosive6.8%32
22nd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 8.0% (17th)
Dropbacks+0.03339
20th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.039 (18th)
Rushes+0.04990
4th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.105 (21st)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays+0.01545
18th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.041 (6th)
Success42.8%71
10th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 43.7% (15th)
Explosive8.4%35
21st of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.6% (11th)
Dropbacks+0.04252
16th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG -0.017 (6th)
Rushes-0.02732
22nd of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.079 (12th)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.039 · 2024 REG -0.023 · +0.062
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG +0.015 · 2024 REG -0.041 · +0.056
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 878 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1Aaron Rodgers24 TD3,322
- 2Mason Rudolph2 TD310
Rushing yards
- 1Jaylen Warren6 TD958
- 2Kenneth Gainwell5 TD537
- 3Jonnu Smith1 TD70
- 4Kaleb Johnson0 TD69
- 5Aaron Rodgers1 TD61
Receiving yards
- 1DK Metcalf6 TD850
- 2Pat Freiermuth4 TD486
- 3Kenneth Gainwell3 TD486
- 4Calvin Austin III3 TD372
- 5Darnell Washington1 TD364
Receptions
- 1Kenneth Gainwell17 G73
- 2DK Metcalf15 G59
- 3Pat Freiermuth15 G41
- 4Jaylen Warren16 G40
- 5Jonnu Smith17 G38
Total TDs
- 1Aaron Rodgers16 G25
- 2Kenneth Gainwell17 G8
- 3Jaylen Warren16 G8
- 4DK Metcalf15 G7
- 5Pat Freiermuth15 G4
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
Aaron Rodgers
531 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate38.1
- EPA / play-0.005
- Accuracy +-1.8%
- Pressure0.2%
Built on -0.005 EPA/play and -1.8% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Middle
avg rank 19.2
YDS
25th
Total yards
PASS
22nd
Pass yards
RUSH
26th
Rush yards
PTS
16th
Points
TO
7th
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
67% pass · 33% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
317vs 342 yds/GSlight gap
Passing yards
214vs 225 yds/GSlight gap
Rushing yards
103vs 117 yds/GSlight gap
Points scored
24.0vs 23.5 pts/GLeague avg
Turnovers
0.70vs 0.90 TO/GAbove avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 9 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 21
Maxwell Iheanachor
OT · Arizona St.
RND 2 · PICK 47
Germie Bernard
WR · Alabama
RND 3 · PICK 76
Drew Allar
QB · Penn St.
RND 3 · PICK 85
Daylen Everette
CB · Georgia
RND 3 · PICK 96
Gennings Dunker
G · Iowa
RND 4 · PICK 121
Kaden Wetjen
WR · Iowa
RND 5 · PICK 169
Riley Nowakowski
TE · Indiana
RND 7 · PICK 224
Robert Spears-Jennings
SAF · Oklahoma
RND 7 · PICK 230
Eli Heidenreich
RB · Navy
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 11
Signed WR Joaquin Davis and Daryl Porter Jr. to contracts. Released LS Cal Adomitis. Waived OL Aiden Williams.
- Jun 9
Claimed P Aidan Laros off waivers from Tampa Bay. Waived WR Brandon Johnson.
- Jun 2
Signed S Darnell Savage to a one-year contract. Released DB Makari Paige.
- May 26
Signed DL Dean Lowry to a one-year contract. Waived DE Jahvaree Ritzie.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 44
The attack
A.T. Perry
WR · #27
A. Rodgers
QB · #8
B. Skowronek
WR · #15
B. Smith
WR · #87
B. Hoffman
C · #67
B. Jones
OT · #77
C. Burgess
WR · #85
D. Washington
TE · #80
D. Metcalf
WR · #4
D. Nester
G · #72
D. Allar
QB · #16
D. Cook
OT · #60
E. Heidenreich
RB · #29
G. Dunker
G · #73
G. Bernard
WR · #17
G. Crippen
C · #61
J. Driscoll
OT · #68
J. Bell
TE · #82
J. Warren
RB · #30
J. Galbreath
TE · #45
J. Davis
WR · #89
K. Wetjen
WR · #10
K. Johnson
RB · #20
L. McRee
TE · #81
L. Wentz
WR · #28
L. Nichols
RB · #35
L. Thompson
OT · #69
M. McCormick
G · #66
M. Rudolph
QB · #2
M. Hurleman
RB · #84
M. Iheanachor
OT · #71
M. Pittman Jr.
WR · #11
P. Freiermuth
TE · #88
R. Dowdle
RB · #13
R. Nowakowski
FB · #37
R. Tonyan
TE · #83
R. Wilson
WR · #14
R. McCollum
C · #62
S. Anderson
G · #74
S. Jones
G · #79
T. Homer
RB · #21
T. Fautanu
OT · #76
W. Howard
QB · #18
Z. Frazier
C · #54
Defense · 44
The stop unit
A. Harvey
CB · #30
A. Highsmith
LB · #56
A. Goodlow
DE · #72
A. Samuel Jr.
CB · #22
B. Echols
CB · #26
C. Heyward
DT · #97
C. Bruener
LB · #44
C. Holcomb
LB · #55
D. Jamison
CB · #38
D. Hardy
CB · #31
D. Savage
S · #31
D. Porter
CB · #27
D. Everette
CB · #23
D. Lowry
DT · #94
D. Harmon
DT · #99
D. Elliott
S · #25
D. Boykin
CB · #40
D. Slaughter
CB · #19
D. Kent
CB · #34
E. Otomewo
DT · #93
G. Rubio
DE · #96
J. Henderson
S · #48
J. Sawyer
LB · #33
J. Windmon
LB · #53
J. Ramsey
CB · #5
J. Dean
CB · #35
J. Davis
LB · #50
J. Brisker
S · #3
J. Porter Jr.
CB · #24
J. Welschof
LB · #45
K. Benton
DT · #95
K. Jobity Jr.
DT · #92
K. Baugh
DT · #65
L. Lee
DT · #91
M. Harrison
LB · #39
N. Herbig
LB · #51
P. Queen
LB · #6
P. Wilson
LB · #41
R. Spears-Jennings
S · #28
S. Castro
S · #49
S. Joseph-Day
DT · #69
T.J. Watt
LB · #90
T. Lynum
CB · #42
Y. Black
DE · #94
Special teams · 4
