May 6, 26sim 78
20102
18(H)108
EloWin probTime of year
FINAL+13OKC
SA
62-20
114127
OKC
64-18
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 48 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder held off San Antonio Spurs, 127–114.
OKC -3.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 24.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SA · top performer
Stephon Castle
G · #5
22.8Game score
24
Pts
5
Reb
6
Ast
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
23.5Game score
32
Pts
2
Reb
9
Ast
NBA · San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
Final
SA62-20
114127
OKC64-18
SA62-20OKC64-18
SA
62-20
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 30 | 22 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -20 | |
| 38 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -8 | |
| 33 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -10 | |
DRIVES14.885 DEFL379 TOUCHES65.164 | ||||||||
| 36 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | |
| 33 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -9 | |
TOUCHES71.573 DRIVES12.371 CONT4.848 | ||||||||
| 20 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | |
| 25 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | |
| Team | 114 | 41 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 15 | ||
| DNP: L. Waters III | ||||||||
OKC
64-18
| Core | Rebounds | Playmaking | Defense | Discipline | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | +/- |
| 31 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +24 | |
| 30 | 16 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | |
| 37 | 32 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +8 | |
| 18 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | |
| 33 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | |
| 17 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -9 | |
| 28 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +18 | |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +7 | |
| 31 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +29 | |
| Team | 127 | 48 | 26 | 9 | 5 | 16 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
48
25
Ast
26
Playoff series
OKC leads series 3-2
May 19SA122@OKC115
SA122@OKC115May 21SA113@OKC122
SA113@OKC122May 23OKC123@SA108
OKC123@SA108May 25OKC82@SA103
OKC82@SA103May 27SA114@OKC127today
SA114@OKC127todayMay 29OKC91@SA118
OKC91@SA118May 31SA@OKC
SA@OKCVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -3.5
Between — and 5
Total
216.5
Defensive · -9.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.2h
Moneyline
SA+13642%OKC-16262%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
3.5
0.0 since open
Total
216.5
+1.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Game flowSA ↔ OKC
Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:18
SAS. Castle
GGame leader · 33 min
24 PTS · 5 REB · 6 AST
OKCS. Gilgeous-Alexander
GGame leader · 37 min30+ point game
32 PTS · 2 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
OKC beat SA 127-114. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 32 PTS, 2 REB, 9 AST. OKC outscored the other side 40-31 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs SA
Starters vs bench
production by unitSAstarters 71% of ptsStarters(5)
81 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST
GS 69
Bench(9)
33 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST
GS 20
OKCstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
87 PTS · 35 REB · 14 AST
GS 65
Bench(7)
40 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST
GS 45
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSA2nd Quarter · 6:18 · 41-45
+7pp→ 32% WP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)
OKC3rd Quarter · 1:17 · 88-96
+6pp→ 91% WP
Luke Kornet · shooting foul
SA3rd Quarter · 21.5 · 88-98
+6pp→ 12% WP
technical foul
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 27 | 31 | 33 | 23 | 114 |
| OKC | 29 | 40 | 32 | 26 | 127 |
Period scoring
SA won 1 · OKC won 3
27
29
Q1
Champagnie 13
Holmgren 8
31
40
Q2
Wembanyama 9
Gilgeous-Alexander 12
33
32
Q3
Castle 7
Gilgeous-Alexander 11
23
26
Q4
Castle 5
McCain 9
SA
OKC
Shooting comparison
SA
OKC
40%
37-92
FG
48%
40-83
29%
12-41
3PT
44%
14-32
88%
28-32
FT
87%
33-38
Play-by-play · 552 plays
period
event
player
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 114·OKC 127
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 114·OKC 127
- Q4·13.0
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 114·OKC 127
- Q4·13.0
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 113·OKC 127
- Q4·13.0
Isaiah Joe shooting foul
SA 112·OKC 127
- Q4·19.7
Kenrich Williams makes tip shot
·
SA 112·OKC 127
- Q4·20.0
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
SA 112·OKC 125
- Q4·21.7
Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper
SA 112·OKC 125
- Q4·37.3
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 112·OKC 125
- Q4·37.3
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 111·OKC 125
- Q4·37.3
Aaron Wiggins shooting foul
SA 110·OKC 125
- Q4·45.8
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 110·OKC 125
- Q4·45.8
Nikola Topic enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
SA 110·OKC 124
- Q4·45.8
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
SA 110·OKC 124
- Q4·45.8
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 110·OKC 124
- Q4·45.8
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
SA 110·OKC 123
- Q4·1:02
Carter Bryant makes 3-foot two point shot
SA 110·OKC 123
- Q4·1:08
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:09
Jared McCain misses two point shot
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:24
Bismack Biyombo lost ball turnover (Isaiah Joe steals)
·
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:24
Bismack Biyombo offensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:30
Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:37
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Jared McCain misses free throw 2 of 2
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 108·OKC 123
- Q4·1:39
Mason Plumlee personal foul
SA 108·OKC 122
- Q4·1:48
Jordan McLaughlin makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
SA 108·OKC 122
Team stats
SA
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
37-92
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-83
40
FG %
48
12-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-32
28-32
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
33-38
25
Assists
26
15
Turnovers
16
Betting line
OKC -3.5·O/U 216.5·SA +136/OKC -162
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
2 of 16 players in cohort
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.885- Stephon CastleSA · GTOUCHES71.573
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
78.5%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
77.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
77.4%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
80.5%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
1.44 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
90% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-0.78
CLV pp
Open price
-205
Close price
-198
Open no-vig
64.5%
Close no-vig
63.7%
Market faded the model · Graded: hit
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+10.6pp
best edge · SA · DraftKings
SA
★ best+700DraftKings
edge +10.6pp · implied 11.9%
OKC
no live price
| Book | SA | OKC | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +700★ | -1300 | +10.6 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
OKC vs SA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC26.6± 6.4high
- Victor WembanyamaSA25.1± 10.8high
- Stephon CastleSA18.4± 6.1high
Rebounds
- Victor WembanyamaSA11.1± 6.8high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.8± 3.7high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.5± 2.9high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.4± 3.2high
- Stephon CastleSA7.4± 2.5high
- De'Aaron FoxSA5.8± 2.1high
Blocks
- Victor WembanyamaSA3.0± 1.3high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 1.0high
- Luke KornetSA1.0± 1.3high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.1± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Ajay MitchellOKC1.4± 1.7high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands