Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?

The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13OKC

62-20

114127

OKC

64-18

NBATue, May 26FinalSeriesSA wins series 4-1VegasOKC -3.5

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:18

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	30	22	8-15	4-8	2-3	-20	8	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	38	20	4-15	0-5	12-12	-8	6	1
D. FoxG · #4	33	9	4-15	0-4	1-2	-10	4	8
D. VassellG · #24	36	6	2-11	2-9	0-1	-2	4	4
S. CastleG · #5	33	24	7-11	3-5	7-8	-9	5	6
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	4	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
K. OlynykF · #8	2	2	—	—	2-2	+1	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	20	15	7-13	1-4	—	+3	4	2
C. BryantF · #11	5	7	3-5	1-3	—	-4	1	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
M. PlumleeC · #45	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	8	0	0-1	—	—	-6	1	0
J. McLaughlinG · #0	2	4	1-1	—	2-2	+1	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	25	5	1-5	1-3	2-2	-7	6	3
Team		114	37-92	12-41	28-32		41	25
DNP: L. Waters III

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	31	12	6-8	—	—	+24	15	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	30	16	6-9	0-1	4-4	-1	11	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	37	32	7-19	2-3	16-17	+8	2	9
L. DortG · #5	18	7	3-7	1-4	—	-4	4	0
J. McCainG · #3	33	20	7-19	3-9	3-5	+1	3	0
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	17	3	1-3	1-2	0-2	-9	4	1
A. CarusoG · #9	28	22	5-10	4-8	8-8	+18	2	6
K. WilliamsG · #34	12	8	3-3	2-2	—	+7	3	0
I. JoeG · #11	2	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
A. WigginsG · #21	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
C. WallaceG · #22	31	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	+29	4	5
N. TopicG · #44	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		127	40-83	14-32	33-38		48	26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

37-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-83

FG %

12-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-32

28-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

33-38

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 3-2

May 19

SA122@

OKC115

May 21

SA113@

OKC122

May 23

OKC123@

SA108

May 25

OKC82@

SA103

May 27

SA114@

OKC127today

May 29

OKC91@

SA118

May 31

SA111@

OKC103

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

SA+13642%

OKC-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗SpreadBet OKC -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat SA 127-114. S. Gilgeous-Alexander paced them with 32 PTS, 2 REB, 9 AST. OKC outscored the other side 40-31 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST

GS 69

Bench(9)

33 PTS · 14 REB · 5 AST

GS 20

OKCstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 35 REB · 14 AST

GS 65

Bench(7)

40 PTS · 13 REB · 12 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA2nd Quarter · 6:18 · 41-45

+7pp→ 32% WP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · lost ball turnover (Stephon Castle steals)

OKC3rd Quarter · 1:17 · 88-96

+6pp→ 91% WP

Luke Kornet · shooting foul

SA3rd Quarter · 21.5 · 88-98

+6pp→ 12% WP

technical foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	27	31	33	23	114
OKC	29	40	32	26	127

Period scoring

SA won 1 · OKC won 3

Champagnie 13

Holmgren 8

Wembanyama 9

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Castle 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 11

Castle 5

McCain 9

OKC

Shooting comparison

OKC

40%

37-92

48%

40-83

29%

12-41

3PT

44%

14-32

88%

28-32

87%

33-38

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 114·OKC 127
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 114·OKC 127
Q4·13.0
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 114·OKC 127
Q4·13.0
Jordan McLaughlin makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 113·OKC 127
Q4·13.0
Isaiah Joe shooting foul
SA 112·OKC 127
Q4·19.7
Kenrich Williams makes tip shot
·
SA 112·OKC 127
Q4·20.0
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
·
SA 112·OKC 125
Q4·21.7
Jared McCain misses 27-foot three point jumper
SA 112·OKC 125
Q4·37.3
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 112·OKC 125
Q4·37.3
Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 111·OKC 125
Q4·37.3
Aaron Wiggins shooting foul
SA 110·OKC 125
Q4·45.8
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 110·OKC 125
Q4·45.8
Nikola Topic enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
SA 110·OKC 124
Q4·45.8
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
SA 110·OKC 124
Q4·45.8
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 110·OKC 124
Q4·45.8
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
SA 110·OKC 123
Q4·1:02
Carter Bryant makes 3-foot two point shot
SA 110·OKC 123
Q4·1:08
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:09
Jared McCain misses two point shot
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:24
Bismack Biyombo lost ball turnover (Isaiah Joe steals)
·
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:24
Bismack Biyombo offensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:30
Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:37
Mason Plumlee defensive rebound
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Jared McCain misses free throw 2 of 2
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
SA 108·OKC 123
Q4·1:39
Mason Plumlee personal foul
SA 108·OKC 122
Q4·1:48
Jordan McLaughlin makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot
SA 108·OKC 122

Betting line

OKC -3.5·O/U 216.5·SA +136/OKC -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off San Antonio Spurs, 127–114.

OKC -3.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 216.5 OVER by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

76.9%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
74.5%
P(OKC win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
79.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
77.2%
P(OKC win)
32%
weight

Disagreement

1.87 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.78

CLV pp

Open price

-205

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

64.5%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SA at OKC?: The model favors OKC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+15.2pp

best edge · OKC · DraftKings

no live price

OKC

★ best

-162DraftKings

edge +15.2pp · implied 59.3%

Book	SA	OKC	Best edge
DraftKings	+136	-162★	+15.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

OKC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 115 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Tobias HarrisSA
16.3± 7.8high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high
Isaiah HartensteinOKC
0.6± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
1.5± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

OKC

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

118.2

PPG

114.9

118.5

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR