NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7DET

ORL

45-37

109116

DET

60-22

NBAWed, Apr 29FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -11.5

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Orlando Magic, 116–109.

ORL +11.5 cashed (DET won by 7). Total cleared the 210.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

33.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. CainF · #8	25	5	1-4	0-1	3-7	-9	4	1
P. BancheroF · #5	41	45	17-31	6-11	5-12	0	9	7
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	34	9	2-4	1-3	4-4	+6	4	4
D. BaneG · #3	34	18	6-15	4-10	2-2	-2	5	1
J. SuggsG · #4	37	10	4-9	2-5	0-1	-4	2	5
Bench
T. da SilvaF · #23	16	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-9	3	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	14	0	0-1	—	—	-13	1	0
A. BlackG · #0	39	19	7-12	4-6	1-2	-4	5	3
Team		109	38-80	17-38	16-30		33	21
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	31	23	9-18	1-3	4-7	+6	8	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	25	12	4-8	3-6	1-2	+2	3	1
J. DurenC · #0	28	12	4-6	—	4-4	-3	9	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	44	45	13-23	5-8	14-14	+3	4	5
A. ThompsonG · #9	36	6	3-5	—	0-2	-2	15	6
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	20	5	1-3	0-1	3-4	+10	5	0
J. GreenG · #31	15	5	2-5	1-4	—	+4	2	1
C. LeVertG · #8	25	2	1-4	0-1	—	+5	3	2
D. JenkinsG · #24	16	6	2-8	0-5	2-2	+10	0	2
Team		116	39-80	10-28	28-35		49	20
DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, R. Holland II, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

DNP: P. Reed, T. Smith, R. Holland II, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

ORL leads series 3-2

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116today

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

210.5

Defensive · -15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+35022%

DET-45582%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -11.5↗SpreadBet DET -11.5↗

Line movement · 92 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

210.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowORL ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 7pp · 4th Quarter · 1:09

ORL

P. Banchero

Game leader · 41 min40-point game

45 PTS · 9 REB · 7 AST

DET

C. Cunningham

Game leader · 44 min40-point game

45 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

How it ended

DET beat ORL 116-109. C. Cunningham led the way with 45 points and 5 assists. DET outscored the other side 38-26 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 66

Bench(3)

22 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 14

DETstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

98 PTS · 39 REB · 15 AST

GS 84

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 10 REB · 5 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL3rd Quarter · 11:38 · 62-66

+7pp→ 17% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 10-foot turnaround jump shot

ORL4th Quarter · 1:09 · 109-112

+7pp→ 13% WP

Paolo Banchero · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	26	34	19	30	109
DET	38	28	23	27	116

Period scoring

ORL won 2 · DET won 2

Banchero 10

Cunningham 13

Banchero 12

Cunningham 20

Black 5

Banchero 40

Banchero 18

Cunningham 10

ORL

DET

Shooting comparison

ORL

DET

48%

38-80

49%

39-80

45%

17-38

3PT

36%

10-28

53%

16-30

80%

28-35

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 109·DET 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 109·DET 116
Q4·3.0
Tobias Harris steps out of bounds turnover
ORL 109·DET 116
Q4·8.9
Tobias Harris defensive rebound
ORL 109·DET 116
Q4·13.1
Paolo Banchero misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 109·DET 116
+1pp
Q4·22.9
Tobias Harris makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 109·DET 116
−0.7pp
Q4·22.9
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
ORL 109·DET 115
Q4·22.9
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
ORL 109·DET 115
Q4·22.9
Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 109·DET 115
Q4·22.9
Jalen Suggs personal foul
ORL 109·DET 114
+3pp
Q4·30.3
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Javonte Green
·
ORL 109·DET 114
Q4·30.3
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
ORL 109·DET 114
Q4·30.3
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive foul turnover
·
ORL 109·DET 114
Q4·30.3
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive foul
·
ORL 109·DET 114
+4pp
Q4·31.3
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
ORL 109·DET 114
Q4·31.3
Magic Full timeout
ORL 109·DET 114
Q4·32.0
Cade Cunningham makes 15-foot fade away jump shot
ORL 109·DET 114
+4pp
Q4·43.5
Ausar Thompson offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ORL 109·DET 112
+6pp
Q4·45.2
Tobias Harris misses 12-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 109·DET 112
−4pp
Q4·1:09
Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)BIG MOMENT
·
ORL 109·DET 112
−7pp
Q4·1:12
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
ORL 106·DET 112
Q4·1:12
Magic offensive team rebound
ORL 106·DET 112
−2pp
Q4·1:13
Jalen Duren blocks Paolo Banchero 's 7-foot driving layup
·
ORL 106·DET 112
+2pp
Q4·1:20
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
ORL 106·DET 112
−0.6pp
Q4·1:21
Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point jumper
ORL 106·DET 112
−2pp
Q4·1:42
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 4-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)
· ·
ORL 106·DET 112
−1pp
Q4·1:47
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound
·
ORL 104·DET 112
−0.8pp
Q4·1:48
Desmond Bane misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 104·DET 112
+1pp
Q4·2:04
Cade Cunningham makes 10-foot fade away jump shot
ORL 104·DET 112
+2pp
Q4·2:20
Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
ORL 104·DET 110
+0.7pp

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

38-80

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-80

FG %

17-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-28

16-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-35

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

DET -11.5·O/U 210.5·ORL +350/DET -455

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
DRIVES1999+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
66.5%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
68.6%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
65.6%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+350

Close price

+350

Open no-vig

21.3%

Close no-vig

21.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

DET vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

DET

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR