NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

TOR

46-36

120125

CLE

52-30

NBAWed, Apr 29FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -9.5

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Toronto Raptors, 125–120. Decided by 5.

TOR +9.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	11	1	0-2	—	1-2	-2	1	2
R. BarrettF · #9	38	25	9-19	2-5	5-9	+2	12	5
S. BarnesF · #4	39	17	6-16	0-3	5-6	+2	8	11
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	14	5-6	—	4-6	+6	9	3
J. WalterG · #14	35	20	7-16	6-14	—	-7	3	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	15	10	3-9	2-5	2-2	-1	3	0
J. BattleF · #77	19	7	3-5	1-1	—	-13	6	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	8	4-5	—	—	-7	5	2
A.J. LawsonG · #0	2	0	0-2	—	—	-3	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	34	18	7-15	4-10	—	-2	1	7
Team		120	44-95	15-38	17-25		48	32
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	25	9	4-5	—	1-2	-4	3	1
E. MobleyC · #4	33	23	8-13	3-3	4-8	-2	9	1
J. HardenG · #1	40	23	7-13	4-8	5-6	+10	9	5
D. MitchellG · #45	31	19	7-17	3-5	2-2	-9	5	3
M. StrusG · #2	27	8	2-4	0-2	4-4	0	4	2
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	21	7	3-10	1-6	—	+4	3	1
T. BryantC · #3	5	0	—	—	—	-1	0	1
D. SchroderG · #8	21	19	7-11	3-6	2-2	+8	0	2
S. MerrillG · #5	23	9	2-3	2-2	3-4	+19	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	13	8	3-5	2-4	—	0	1	2
Team		125	43-81	18-36	21-28		35	20
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

CLE leads series 3-2

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125today

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+31024%

CLE-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗

Line movement · 81 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTOR ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 28pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:32

TOR

R. Barrett

Game leader · 38 minDouble-double

25 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

CLE

E. Mobley

Game leader · 33 min30+ minutes, 0 turnovers

23 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

How it ended

CLE beat TOR 125-120. E. Mobley led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 40-29 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

CLEstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 4:51 · 57-54

+13pp→ 49% WP

RJ Barrett · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)

CLE2nd Quarter · 7:32 · 49-51

+28pp→ 68% WP

Evan Mobley · makes free throw 1 of 2

CLE2nd Quarter · 7:32 · 49-52

+19pp→ 66% WP

James Harden · enters the game for Donovan Mitchell

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	34	40	29	17	120
CLE	38	29	33	25	125

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CLE won 3

Barnes 8

Harden 32

Walter 11

Harden 11

Barrett 9

Mobley 10

Battle 4

Schroder 11

TOR

CLE

Shooting comparison

TOR

CLE

46%

44-95

53%

43-81

39%

15-38

3PT

50%

18-36

68%

17-25

75%

21-28

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
Max Strus enters the game for Dean Wade
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
Cavaliers Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
RJ Barrett steps out of bounds turnover
TOR 120·CLE 125
+0.5pp
Q4·1.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.4
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.5
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
−0.5pp
Q4·2.7
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Jamison Battle personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·3.7
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·5.7
Jamison Battle misses tip shot
TOR 120·CLE 125
+0.8pp
Q4·5.7
Jamison Battle offensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
−0.6pp
Q4·6.5
Scottie Barnes misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 120·CLE 125
+4pp
Q4·18.0
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Jamison Battle enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus
·
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·18.0
Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·18.0
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
TOR 120·CLE 124
−2pp
Q4·18.0
James Harden misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 124
−1pp
Q4·18.0
Jamal Shead personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·22.5
Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 124
+5pp
Q4·23.5
Collin Murray-Boyles makes tip in dunk
TOR 120·CLE 124
−4pp
Q4·23.5
Collin Murray-Boyles offensive rebound
TOR 118·CLE 124
−1pp
Q4·24.4
Ja'Kobe Walter misses two point shot
TOR 118·CLE 124
+2pp
Q4·28.9
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 118·CLE 124

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

44-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-81

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-36

17-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-28

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

CLE -9.5·O/U 219.5·TOR +310/CLE -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.898
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.798
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
62.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

CLE vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CLE

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR