Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CLE?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5CLE

TOR

46-36

120125

CLE

52-30

NBAWed, Apr 29FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -9.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Evan Mobley

C · #4

21.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 28pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:32

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	11	1	0-2	—	1-2	-2	1	2
R. BarrettF · #9	38	25	9-19	2-5	5-9	+2	12	5
S. BarnesF · #4	39	17	6-16	0-3	5-6	+2	8	11
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	14	5-6	—	4-6	+6	9	3
J. WalterG · #14	35	20	7-16	6-14	—	-7	3	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	15	10	3-9	2-5	2-2	-1	3	0
J. BattleF · #77	19	7	3-5	1-1	—	-13	6	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	26	8	4-5	—	—	-7	5	2
A.J. LawsonG · #0	2	0	0-2	—	—	-3	0	0
J. SheadG · #23	34	18	7-15	4-10	—	-2	1	7
Team		120	44-95	15-38	17-25		48	32
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. AllenC · #31	25	9	4-5	—	1-2	-4	3	1
E. MobleyC · #4	33	23	8-13	3-3	4-8	-2	9	1
J. HardenG · #1	40	23	7-13	4-8	5-6	+10	9	5
D. MitchellG · #45	31	19	7-17	3-5	2-2	-9	5	3
M. StrusG · #2	27	8	2-4	0-2	4-4	0	4	2
Bench
D. WadeF · #32	21	7	3-10	1-6	—	+4	3	1
T. BryantC · #3	5	0	—	—	—	-1	0	1
D. SchroderG · #8	21	19	7-11	3-6	2-2	+8	0	2
S. MerrillG · #5	23	9	2-3	2-2	3-4	+19	1	2
J. TysonG · #20	13	8	3-5	2-4	—	0	1	2
Team		125	43-81	18-36	21-28		35	20
DNP: L. Nance Jr., N. Tomlin, C. Porter Jr., K. Ellis, T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

44-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-81

FG %

15-38

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-36

17-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-28

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE leads series 3-2

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125today

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+31024%

CLE-39580%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗SpreadBet CLE -9.5↗

Line movement · 82 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat TOR 125-120. E. Mobley led with 23 PTS, 9 REB, 1 AST. TOR outscored the other side 40-29 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 33 REB · 23 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 35

CLEstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

43 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR2nd Quarter · 4:51 · 57-54

+13pp→ 49% WP

RJ Barrett · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)

CLE2nd Quarter · 7:32 · 49-51

+28pp→ 68% WP

Evan Mobley · makes free throw 1 of 2

CLE2nd Quarter · 7:32 · 49-52

+19pp→ 66% WP

James Harden · enters the game for Donovan Mitchell

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	34	40	29	17	120
CLE	38	29	33	25	125

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CLE won 3

Barnes 8

Harden 32

Walter 11

Harden 11

Barrett 9

Mobley 10

Battle 4

Schroder 11

TOR

CLE

Shooting comparison

TOR

CLE

46%

44-95

53%

43-81

39%

15-38

3PT

50%

18-36

68%

17-25

75%

21-28

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
Max Strus enters the game for Dean Wade
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
Cavaliers Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·1.8
RJ Barrett steps out of bounds turnover
TOR 120·CLE 125
+0.5pp
Q4·1.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.4
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.5
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Evan Mobley misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
−0.5pp
Q4·2.7
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Evan Mobley misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·2.7
Jamison Battle personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·3.7
Evan Mobley defensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·5.7
Jamison Battle misses tip shot
TOR 120·CLE 125
+0.8pp
Q4·5.7
Jamison Battle offensive rebound
TOR 120·CLE 125
−0.6pp
Q4·6.5
Scottie Barnes misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
TOR 120·CLE 125
+4pp
Q4·18.0
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Jakob Poeltl
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Jamison Battle enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 125
Q4·18.0
Dean Wade enters the game for Max Strus
·
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·18.0
Jakob Poeltl enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·18.0
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
TOR 120·CLE 124
−2pp
Q4·18.0
James Harden misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 120·CLE 124
−1pp
Q4·18.0
Jamal Shead personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 124
Q4·22.5
Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul
TOR 120·CLE 124
+5pp
Q4·23.5
Collin Murray-Boyles makes tip in dunk
TOR 120·CLE 124
−4pp
Q4·23.5
Collin Murray-Boyles offensive rebound
TOR 118·CLE 124
−1pp
Q4·24.4
Ja'Kobe Walter misses two point shot
TOR 118·CLE 124
+2pp
Q4·28.9
RJ Barrett defensive rebound
TOR 118·CLE 124

Betting line

CLE -9.5·O/U 219.5·TOR +310/CLE -395

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Toronto Raptors, 125–120. Decided by 5.

TOR +9.5 cashed (CLE won by 5). Total cleared the 219.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
62.8%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.3%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
64.5%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+310

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

23.4%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at CLE?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CLE vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CLE

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR