NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9PHI

PHI

45-37

109100

BOS

56-26

NBASat, May 2FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBOS -3.5

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Boston Celtics and beat them, 109–100.

PHI +3.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 204.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. GeorgeF · #8	42	13	5-10	3-5	—	+9	3	1
J. EmbiidC · #21	39	34	12-26	1-4	9-11	+11	12	6
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	31	6	2-6	0-3	2-2	+6	5	2
T. MaxeyG · #0	45	30	11-18	2-4	6-6	+8	11	7
V. EdgecombeG · #77	44	23	8-17	5-11	2-2	+19	6	4
Bench
J. EdwardsF · #11	2	0	0-1	—	—	-8	0	0
D. BarlowF · #25	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
A. DrummondC · #1	8	0	—	—	—	-2	1	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	26	3	1-4	0-1	1-2	+1	6	4
Team		109	39-82	11-28	20-23		44	25
DNP: T. Watford, J. Walker, D. Terry, J. Broome, A. Bona, K. Lowry

DNP: T. Watford, J. Walker, D. Terry, J. Broome, A. Bona, K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. GarzaC · #52	9	0	0-2	0-2	—	-15	0	0
D. WhiteG · #9	45	26	9-26	5-16	3-4	-6	6	4
J. BrownG · #7	40	33	12-27	3-9	6-6	-16	9	4
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	0	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	22	0	0-4	0-3	—	-9	6	2
Bench
S. HauserF · #30	30	11	4-7	3-6	—	-3	3	1
N. QuetaC · #88	33	17	7-8	—	3-3	+9	12	1
P. PritchardG · #11	39	13	5-13	2-7	1-1	-2	5	7
J. WalshG · #27	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	+1	0	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	13	0	0-3	0-3	0-2	+3	3	0
Team		100	37-93	13-49	13-16		44	19
DNP: J. Tatum, D. Banton, A. Williams, N. Vucevic, M. Shulga

DNP: J. Tatum, D. Banton, A. Williams, N. Vucevic, M. Shulga

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Playoff series

PHI wins series 4-3

Apr 19

PHI91@

BOS123

Apr 21

PHI111@

BOS97

Apr 24

BOS108@

PHI100

Apr 26

BOS128@

PHI96

Apr 28

PHI113@

BOS97

May 1

BOS93@

PHI106

May 2

PHI109@

BOS100today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

204.5

Defensive · -21.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+13642%

BOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗SpreadBet BOS -3.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

-4.0 since open

Total

204.5

-2.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 5:20

PHI

T. Maxey

Game leader · 45 min30-point game

30 PTS · 11 REB · 7 AST

BOS

J. Brown

Game leader · 40 min30-point game

33 PTS · 9 REB · 4 AST

How it ended

PHI beat BOS 109-100. T. Maxey paced them with 30 PTS, 11 REB, 7 AST. PHI outscored the other side 32-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 97% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 37 REB · 20 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

3 PTS · 7 REB · 5 AST

GS 4

BOSstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI4th Quarter · 7:40 · 95-91

+12pp→ 58% WP

Joel Embiid · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)

BOS4th Quarter · 5:52 · 95-94

+13pp→ 50% WP

Derrick White · makes 25-foot three pointer (Sam Hauser assists)

PHI4th Quarter · 5:20 · 96-94

+20pp→ 64% WP

Tyrese Maxey · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	32	23	33	21	109
BOS	19	31	25	25	100

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · BOS won 2

Embiid 10

Brown 8

Embiid 9

White 12

Maxey 12

Brown 13

Maxey 10

Queta 7

PHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

PHI

BOS

48%

39-82

40%

37-93

39%

11-28

3PT

27%

13-49

87%

20-23

81%

13-16

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 109·BOS 100
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 109·BOS 100
Q4·4.9
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
PHI 109·BOS 100
Q4·4.9
Payton Pritchard misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
PHI 109·BOS 100
Q4·8.8
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 109·BOS 100
Q4·8.8
VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 108·BOS 100
Q4·8.8
Sam Hauser personal take foul
PHI 107·BOS 100
Q4·10.2
Payton Pritchard makes driving layup
PHI 107·BOS 100
Q4·15.4
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 107·BOS 98
Q4·15.4
Neemias Queta enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
PHI 106·BOS 98
Q4·15.4
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 106·BOS 98
Q4·15.4
Baylor Scheierman personal take foul
PHI 105·BOS 98
Q4·16.4
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
PHI 105·BOS 98
Q4·18.8
Sam Hauser misses 26-foot turnaround jump shot
PHI 105·BOS 98
−1pp
Q4·20.2
Dominick Barlow enters the game for Quentin Grimes
·
PHI 105·BOS 98
Q4·20.2
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
PHI 105·BOS 98
Q4·20.2
Celtics Full timeout
PHI 105·BOS 98
Q4·20.2
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 105·BOS 98
+1pp
Q4·20.2
Quentin Grimes enters the game for Joel Embiid
·
PHI 104·BOS 98
Q4·20.2
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 104·BOS 98
Q4·20.2
Payton Pritchard personal take foul
PHI 103·BOS 98
−3pp
Q4·20.3
Tyrese Maxey defensive rebound
PHI 103·BOS 98
−2pp
Q4·23.3
Derrick White misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHI 103·BOS 98
−4pp
Q4·25.0
Jaylen Brown offensive rebound
PHI 103·BOS 98
+3pp
Q4·27.8
Jaylen Brown misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 103·BOS 98
−5pp
Q4·33.5
Celtics defensive team rebound
PHI 103·BOS 98
+1pp
Q4·33.5
Tyrese Maxey misses 16-foot fade away jump shot
PHI 103·BOS 98
+2pp
Q4·55.0
Kelly Oubre Jr. defensive rebound
PHI 103·BOS 98
−2pp
Q4·58.4
Sam Hauser misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
PHI 103·BOS 98
−5pp
Q4·1:15
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHI 103·BOS 98
−7pp

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

39-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-93

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-49

20-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-16

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

BOS -3.5·O/U 204.5·PHI +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Joel EmbiidPHI · C
USG%34.399+
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.5%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
54.2%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
58.7%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
53.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+13.24

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+250

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Jaylen BrownBOS
26.6± 6.3high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Jayson TatumBOS
10.4± 3.8high
Neemias QuetaBOS
8.4± 3.6high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high

Assists

Jayson TatumBOS
6.4± 2.6high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
Payton PritchardBOS
5.4± 2.2high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Derrick WhiteBOS
1.1± 1.3high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Jayson TatumBOS
1.4± 1.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

BOS

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

114.3

PPG

114.9

114.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

24.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR