Model vs marketLock
DraftKings · snapped 10m ago
+9.7ppon PHIPHI
PHIPHIWin prob axisBOSBOS
Market 64%
Model 55%
0%50%100%
ModelPHI 45%Pre-game prob
MarketPHI 36%No-vig · 4.3% hold
Edge+9.7ppModel finds value
PHIPHI +170/BOSBOS -205
+170Bet PHI ML↗+170Bet PHI ML↗
← Back to NBA
NBAGame · Sat, May 25/2 - 7:30 PM EDT
PHI

PHI45-37

PHI

@

56-26BOS

BOS

BOS
SeriesSeries tied 2-2VegasBOS -6.5

Preview · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers visit Boston Celtics Saturday at 5/2 - 7:30 PM EDT. PHI is 5-3 in their last 8. BOS is 4-3 in their last 7.

Vegas opened BOS as a 6.5-point favorite with the total at 204.5. BOS's moneyline implies a 67% break-even, PHI the inverse.

For bettors: the BOS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 204.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 60 over 6.2hjust now
5/2 - 7:30 PM EDTSat, May 2nd at 7:30 PM EDT
Updated 0s ago
PHI
PHI45-370
5/2 - 7:30 PM EDT
BOS
BOS56-260

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 19PHIPHI91@BOSBOS123
Apr 21PHIPHI111@BOSBOS97
Apr 24BOSBOS108@PHIPHI100
Apr 26BOSBOS128@PHIPHI96
Apr 28PHIPHI113@BOSBOS97
May 1BOSBOS93@PHIPHI106
May 2PHIPHI@BOSBOStoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

1.0pt· 6.2h

Total

204.5

Defensive · -21.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

PHIPHI+17037%
BOSBOS-20567%

60· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗SpreadBet BOS -6.5↗

Line movement · 67 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

-1.0 since open

Total

204.5

-2.0 since open

Scouting report

PHI @ BOS

5/2 - 7:30 PM EDT

Rest going in

PHIStandard

1 day

last game Apr 30

BOSStandard

1 day

last game Apr 30

Model edge vs market

Strong edge
Spread

Market

BOS -6.5

Model

BOS -2.8

Edge

-3.7 pts

Total

Market

204.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

BOS -205

Model

BOS

Edge

aligned

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Pace + efficiency · 2025-26 season

ESPN core · per 100 poss

102.3

+0.3 vs avg

Pace

97.7

-4.3 vs avg

113.6

-0.2 vs avg

ORtg

117.7

+3.9 vs avg

Tale of the tape

PHImetricBOS

45-37

Record

56-26

#4

Conf rank

#3

-0.2

Pt diff

+7.7

W2

Streak

W2

6-4

Last 10

8-2

58.0

Power score

60.8

#9

Power rank

#7

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

46

FG %

47

Betting line

BOS -6.5·O/U 204.5·PHI +170/BOS -205

DraftKings · via ESPN