NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7LAL

HOU

52-30

94101

LAL

53-29

NBATue, Apr 21FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-1VegasHOU -5.5

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

Marcus Smart

G · #36

26.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	41	23	7-12	1-4	8-9	-2	6	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	39	18	7-16	3-7	1-2	-11	6	1
A. SengunC · #28	35	20	9-20	0-1	2-3	+1	11	5
J. OkogieG · #20	24	7	3-6	1-3	—	-4	2	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	16	6-10	0-1	4-5	+1	5	9
Bench
J. TateF · #8	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	1	0
T. EasonF · #17	27	10	4-14	2-6	—	-4	8	1
C. CapelaC · #30	5	0	0-3	—	—	-9	2	0
A. HolidayG · #0	7	0	0-3	0-3	—	-4	1	0
R. SheppardG · #15	11	0	0-4	0-3	—	+1	0	3
Team		94	36-89	7-29	15-19		42	23
DNP: J. Green, D. Finney-Smith, J. Davison

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	39	28	8-20	2-5	10-14	+6	8	7
R. HachimuraF · #28	43	13	5-10	3-6	—	0	5	2
D. AytonC · #5	27	6	3-8	—	—	-5	5	1
M. SmartG · #36	35	25	8-13	5-7	4-5	+3	2	7
L. KennardG · #10	42	23	8-13	3-6	4-4	+2	6	2
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	14	0	0-3	0-2	—	+8	5	1
J. LaRaviaF · #12	16	0	0-2	0-1	—	+8	2	0
J. HayesC · #11	21	6	1-2	0-1	4-5	+12	4	1
B. JamesG · #9	3	0	0-1	—	—	+1	0	0
Team		101	33-72	13-28	22-28		37	21
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, N. Smith Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

36-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-72

FG %

7-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-28

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LAL lead series 2-0

Apr 19

HOU98@

LAL107

Apr 22

HOU94@

LAL101today

Apr 25

LAL112@

HOU108

Apr 27

LAL96@

HOU115

Apr 30

HOU99@

LAL93

May 2

LAL98@

HOU78

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

209.5

Defensive · -16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-23070%

LAL+19034%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -5.5↗SpreadBet HOU -5.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

209.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat HOU 101-94. M. Smart paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 7 AST. Bronny James's play in the 2nd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST

GS 65

Bench(5)

10 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

GS 4

LALstarters 94% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 81

Bench(4)

6 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 12:00 · 26-33

+21pp→ 69% WP

Bronny James · enters the game for Marcus Smart

HOU4th Quarter · 6:38 · 82-85

+9pp→ 26% WP

Josh Okogie · makes 23-foot running jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 4:37 · 84-89

+10pp→ 24% WP

Rui Hachimura · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	26	25	17	26	94
LAL	33	21	21	26	101

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · LAL won 2

Durant 11

Smart 14

Durant 9

James 9

Jr. 6

Kennard 5

Sengun 9

James 9

HOU

LAL

Shooting comparison

HOU

LAL

40%

36-89

46%

33-72

24%

7-29

3PT

46%

13-28

79%

15-19

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 94·LAL 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 94·LAL 101
Q4·8.5
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
HOU 94·LAL 101
Q4·12.3
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 94·LAL 101
+0.7pp
Q4·14.3
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 94·LAL 101
Q4·14.3
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 94·LAL 101
Q4·14.3
Luke Kennard makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 94·LAL 101
−0.6pp
Q4·14.3
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
HOU 94·LAL 100
Q4·14.3
Luke Kennard makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 94·LAL 100
Q4·14.3
Amen Thompson personal take foul
HOU 94·LAL 99
+2pp
Q4·21.6
Lakers offensive team rebound
HOU 94·LAL 99
+3pp
Q4·22.0
Rui Hachimura misses 24-foot three point jumper
HOU 94·LAL 99
−0.5pp
Q4·46.3
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
HOU 94·LAL 99
Q4·46.3
Lakers Full timeout
HOU 94·LAL 99
Q4·46.3
Alperen Sengun makes 3-foot reverse layup (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 94·LAL 99
−2pp
Q4·55.3
LeBron James makes dunk (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
HOU 92·LAL 99
+3pp
Q4·1:08
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Marcus Smart steals)
·
HOU 92·LAL 97
+5pp
Q4·1:17
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
HOU 92·LAL 97
−1pp
Q4·1:19
LeBron James misses two point shot
·
HOU 92·LAL 97
−3pp
Q4·1:41
Alperen Sengun makes dunk
HOU 92·LAL 97
−2pp
Q4·1:56
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 90·LAL 97
−2pp
Q4·1:56
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 90·LAL 96
+0.5pp
Q4·1:56
Alperen Sengun personal foul
HOU 90·LAL 95
+4pp
Q4·2:01
Tari Eason makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
HOU 90·LAL 95
−4pp
Q4·2:23
Marcus Smart makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 87·LAL 95
+6pp
Q4·2:51
Kevin Durant makes 5-foot two point shot (Amen Thompson assists)
·
HOU 87·LAL 92
−3pp
Q4·3:00
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 85·LAL 92
Q4·3:00
Lakers offensive team rebound
HOU 85·LAL 91
−2pp
Q4·3:00
Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
HOU 85·LAL 91
+6pp
Q4·3:00
(03:00) [Rockets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Rockets] charged with a timeout
HOU 85·LAL 91
−4pp

Betting line

HOU -5.5·O/U 209.5·HOU -230/LAL +190

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Houston Rockets, 101–94.

LAL +5.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 209.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
LeBron JamesLAL
22.2± 5.8high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
LeBron JamesLAL
7.2± 2.6high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high

Steals

Marcus SmartLAL
2.1± 1.8high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

LAL

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

47.4%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR