Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx
WSH
5-7
MIN
11-3
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ashington Mystics visit Minnesota Lynx Sunday at 6/21 - 6:00 PM EDT. WSH is 3-4 in their last 7. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 6/21
WSH@MINtodayMIN@WSHupcomingMIN@WSHupcomingScouting report
WSH @ MIN
Model edge vs market
Lean onlyMarket
—
Model
MIN -52.1
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Market
—
Model
MIN
Edge
—
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
5-7
Record
11-3
#5
Conf rank
#1
-5.3
Pt diff
+13.2
L1
Streak
W1
4-6
Last 10
9-1
40.4
Power score
92.5
#10
Power rank
#2
93.7
Sched ahead
48.2
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
44
FG %
50
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs WSH.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN18.2± 6.8medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.8± 6.7medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN16.5± 6.9medium
Rebounds
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.7± 6.2low
- Shakira AustinWSH8.1± 4.2low
- Natasha HowardMIN7.2± 3.6medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.7± 2.7medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.0± 2.1medium
- Alicia FlorezWSH3.4± 3.4low
Blocks
- Shakira AustinWSH1.4± 1.4low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.3± 1.4medium
- Liatu KingMIN0.8± 1.6low
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN1.9± 1.8medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.6± 1.1medium
- Olivia MilesMIN1.4± 1.1medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
WSH
league avg
MIN
44.5%
FG%
44.4
▶50.8%
29.3%
3PT %
33.1
▶39.4%
81.4
PPG
85.3
▶92.6
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
16.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶13.7