Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at PHI?

The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 20, 2026

FINAL+12PHI

NYM

34-42

315

PHI

41-35

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

43,402 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

PHI no-vig %

61.5%

open 61.6% · -0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
57.4%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.1%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.5%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.47

CLV pp

Open price

+149

Close price

+152

Open no-vig

38.4%

Close no-vig

37.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYM at PHI?: The model favors NYM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.6pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYM

★ best

+162DraftKings

edge +5.6pp · implied 36.5%

PHI

no live price

Book	NYM	PHI	Best edge
DraftKings	+162★	-198	+5.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHI vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.4± 2.8medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low

Hits

Bo BichetteNYM
1.4± 1.1high
Juan SotoNYM
1.3± 1.0high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Juan SotoNYM
2.6± 2.7high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.6± 3.9high
Bo BichetteNYM
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Bo BichetteNYM
0.8± 1.9high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.3high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.0± 2.8low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.3± 2.2medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
3.1± 3.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

PHI

.671

OPS

.719

▶

.695

.298

OBP

.319

.300

4.07

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.25

4.07

Team ERA

4.19

4.09

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

NYM 3 · PHI 15 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3
PHI	1	2	8	0	2	0	2	0	15

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.257	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
B. Bichette3B	.251	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. SotoLF	.301	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Semien2B	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. AlvarezC	.257	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Vientos1B	.223	4	2	2	1	1	0	2
L. TorrensC	.219	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.125	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
B. Baty3B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. MelendezDH	.191	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. EwingCF	.258	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	8	3	2	1	8

Player

.257

.251

.301

.222

.250

.257

.223

.219

.125

.221

.191

.258

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. PeraltaSP	2.2	10	10	10	1	2	80
Z. ShortSS	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
C. PerezRP	2.0	4	3	3	0	3	32
T. MyersRP	2.1	3	2	2	0	1	41
Team	8.0	17	15	15	1	6	163

Player

2.2

1.0

2.0

2.1

Team

8.0

163

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.226	5	3	2	1	0	0	0
K. SchwarberDH	.254	5	4	4	6	3	0	0
B. Harper1B	.259	5	2	4	3	1	0	0
B. MarshLF	.315	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
A. Bohm3B	.231	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.236	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.209	4	2	2	2	0	0	2
G. Rincones Jr.RF	.105	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CrawfordCF	.244	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
G. StubbsC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	15	17	14	4	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SanchezSP	6.0	5	1	1	1	5	91
M. LazarRP	2.0	2	2	2	0	1	26
J. DuranRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
Team	9.0	8	3	3	1	8	134

Team

NYM

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

PHI vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs NYM.

3 sub-models, blended.