MIL
29-42
LAC
36-36
MIL · top performer
Gary Trent Jr.
G · #5
20
Pts
1
Reb
1
Ast
LAC · top performer
Kawhi Leonard
F · #2
28
Pts
5
Reb
3
Ast
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at LA Clippers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 5 | 2-7 | 1-5 | — | -22 | 6 | 0 | |
| 27 | 7 | 3-8 | 1-4 | — | -37 | 5 | 7 | |
| 20 | 7 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 2-3 | -22 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 4 | 2-2 | — | — | -22 | 3 | 1 | |
| 27 | 13 | 6-16 | 1-5 | — | -37 | 4 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 20 | 11 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -24 | 6 | 1 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | +10 | 2 | 2 | |
| 31 | 11 | 5-12 | 1-4 | — | -14 | 6 | 2 | |
| 31 | 20 | 7-13 | 6-10 | — | -12 | 1 | 1 | |
| 21 | 15 | 4-5 | 4-5 | 3-4 | +4 | 1 | 2 | |
| 16 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | +11 | 4 | 6 | |
| Team | 96 | 37-84 | 16-41 | 6-9 | 38 | 29 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 21 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-4 | — | +28 | 4 | 0 | |
| 25 | 28 | 8-18 | 3-10 | 9-9 | +32 | 5 | 3 | |
| 23 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | +28 | 5 | 1 | |
| 22 | 19 | 7-9 | 5-6 | — | +28 | 3 | 3 | |
| 18 | 15 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 2-2 | +25 | 2 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 3-3 | — | — | +17 | 4 | 1 | |
| 21 | 7 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | +27 | 1 | 3 | |
| 8 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 21 | 10 | 4-7 | — | 2-2 | +18 | 4 | 4 | |
| 13 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -12 | 1 | 3 | |
| 26 | 19 | 8-10 | 3-5 | — | +5 | 3 | 4 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-2 | — | -12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 8 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -9 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 129 | 47-81 | 17-38 | 18-18 | 34 | 30 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
44
FG %
58
29
Ast
30
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
LAC
Home
37-84
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
47-81
44
FG %
58
16-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-38
6-9
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
18-18
29
Assists
30
22
Turnovers
12
Season series
LAC lead series 1-0
MIL96@LAC129todayLAC127@MIL113Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAC -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
221.5
Standard · -4.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+60014%LAC-90090%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
0.0 since open
Total
221.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
LAC beat MIL 129-96. K. Leonard paced them with 28 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. LAC outscored the other side 43-23 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
LAC vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 38% of ptsStarters(5)
36 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST
GS 16
Bench(6)
60 PTS · 20 REB · 14 AST
GS 50
LACstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 19 REB · 13 AST
GS 67
Bench(8)
57 PTS · 15 REB · 17 AST
GS 55
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 24 | 23 | 20 | 29 | 96 |
| LAC | 28 | 43 | 37 | 21 | 129 |
Period scoring
MIL won 1 · LAC won 3
Q1
Turner 7
Garland 7
Q2
Rollins 5
Leonard 16
Q3
Green 7
Lopez 14
Q4
Jr. 14
Pedulla 5
Shooting comparison
44%
37-84
FG
58%
47-81
39%
16-41
3PT
45%
17-38
67%
6-9
FT
100%
18-18
Play-by-play · 409 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·0.1
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·1.2
Gary Trent Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·17.9
Gary Trent Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·19.9
Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 22-foot jumper
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·26.6
Bucks delay of game violation
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·26.6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo kicked ball violation
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·46.5
Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 96·LAC 129
- Q4·1:01
Cam Christie makes 4-foot reverse layup (TyTy Washington Jr. assists)
·
MIL 93·LAC 129
- Q4·1:08
TyTy Washington Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:10
AJ Green misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:19
Pete Nance defensive rebound
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:22
Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:34
Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:37
Andre Jackson Jr. makes 28-foot three pointer (Pete Nance assists)
· ·
MIL 93·LAC 127
- Q4·1:47
Pete Nance defensive rebound
MIL 90·LAC 127
- Q4·1:50
Kobe Sanders misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIL 90·LAC 127
- Q4·2:04
AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 90·LAC 127
- Q4·2:11
Kobe Sanders lost ball turnover (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)
· ·
MIL 87·LAC 127
- Q4·2:11
Andre Jackson Jr. vs. Kobe Sanders (Thanasis Antetokounmpo gains possession)
· ·
MIL 87·LAC 127
- Q4·2:11
Andre Jackson Jr. lost ball turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)
· ·
MIL 87·LAC 127
- Q4·2:22
Sean Pedulla makes 4-foot two point shot
MIL 87·LAC 127
- Q4·2:31
Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·2:42
Kobe Sanders defensive rebound
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·2:45
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses two point shot
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·3:00
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
·
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·3:02
TyTy Washington Jr. misses driving layup
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·3:22
Gary Trent Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 87·LAC 125
- Q4·3:36
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
·
MIL 84·LAC 125
Betting line
LAC -13.5·O/U 221.5·MIL +600/LAC -900
Recap · NBA
A Clippers held off Milwaukee Bucks, 129–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
LAC -13.5 cashed (won by 33). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 3.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Jericho SimsMIL · CTS%77.299+- Kawhi LeonardLAC · FUSG%33.399
Ryan RollinsMIL · GDEFL4.098
Kris DunnLAC · GDEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · GDRIVES13.896
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
LAC vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
150
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Kawhi LeonardLAC25.5± 4.3high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Kawhi LeonardLAC6.5± 1.4high
- John CollinsLAC5.8± 2.5high
- Brook LopezLAC5.5± 2.4high
Assists
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Darius GarlandLAC6.3± 2.3high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Brook LopezLAC1.3± 1.4high
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC1.3± 1.5high
- Isaiah JacksonLAC1.2± 0.8high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Kris DunnLAC1.6± 1.1high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
LAC
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.9%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
▶48.5%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶113.9
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
23.8
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.6