NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6GS

34-38

137131

DAL

23-49

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesGS wins series 2-1VegasGS -3.5

GS · top performer

Brandin Podziemski

G · #2

20.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 1:16

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	38	11	5-11	0-5	1-2	-4	7	6
K. PorzingisC · #7	29	22	7-17	2-6	6-7	+3	7	5
D. MeltonG · #8	23	0	0-6	0-3	—	-1	6	5
M. MoodyG · #4	34	23	8-20	4-11	3-4	+7	3	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	40	20	8-15	2-6	2-2	+3	10	6
Bench
G. SantosF · #15	35	16	5-10	0-5	6-8	+7	6	5
G. Payton IIG · #0	21	17	8-8	1-1	0-1	+7	4	3
L. CryerG · #18	19	14	5-7	4-6	—	+7	4	1
P. SpencerG · #61	12	2	1-2	—	—	+5	2	4
W. RichardG · #3	12	12	4-5	4-4	—	-4	0	1
Team		137	51-101	17-47	18-24		49	39
DNP: M. Leons, O. Yurtseven, Q. Post

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	32	20	8-8	—	4-8	-5	7	5
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	34	9	4-8	0-2	1-3	+2	3	2
N. MarshallF · #13	35	16	7-15	2-6	—	+3	6	7
C. FlaggF · #32	42	32	12-19	2-4	6-6	+3	4	9
M. ChristieG · #00	33	15	6-8	3-5	—	+7	2	1
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	12	2	1-3	0-2	—	-13	2	3
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	15	9	3-4	1-2	2-3	-1	0	3
T. SmithF · #23	6	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	28	15	5-10	5-9	—	-13	1	1
R. NembhardG · #9	17	4	2-7	0-1	—	-11	1	5
J. PoulakidasG · #1	12	9	3-5	3-5	—	+4	0	1
Team		131	51-87	16-36	13-20		26	37
DNP: D. Powell, A. Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

51-101

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-87

FG %

17-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-36

18-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 2-1

Dec 25

DAL116@

GS126

Jan 23

GS115@

DAL123

Mar 24

GS137@

DAL131today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-13557%

DAL+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -3.5↗SpreadBet GS -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat DAL 137-131. B. Podziemski led with 20 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST. DAL outscored the other side 42-29 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 33 REB · 25 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

61 PTS · 16 REB · 14 AST

GS 60

DALstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 22 REB · 24 AST

GS 79

Bench(6)

39 PTS · 4 REB · 13 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS4th Quarter · 5:11 · 120-112

+15pp→ 89% WP

Daniel Gafford · misses free throw 1 of 2

DAL4th Quarter · 1:16 · 126-126

+19pp→ 46% WP

Max Christie · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)

GSOT · 4:41 · 126-126

+16pp→ 66% WP

Naji Marshall · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
GS	34	29	35	28	11	137
DAL	31	42	25	28	5	131

Period scoring

GS won 3 · DAL won 1

Cryer 6

Marshall 6

Green 6

Gafford 9

Porzingis 9

Flagg 9

Santos 8

Flagg 9

Moody 3

Christie 5

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

50%

51-101

59%

51-87

36%

17-47

3PT

44%

16-36

75%

18-24

65%

13-20

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
GS 137·DAL 131
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
GS 137·DAL 131
OT·4.2
Naji Marshall bad pass turnover (Gary Payton II steals)
·
GS 137·DAL 131
−1pp
OT·7.1
Mavericks Full timeout
GS 137·DAL 131
OT·7.1
Draymond Green makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 137·DAL 131
+0.9pp
OT·7.1
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·7.1
Draymond Green misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·7.1
Klay Thompson personal take foul
GS 136·DAL 131
−3pp
OT·23.3
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
GS 136·DAL 131
−1pp
OT·26.4
Max Christie misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 136·DAL 131
−4pp
OT·32.4
Gary Payton II enters the game for LJ Cryer
·
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·32.4
Mavericks Full timeout
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·32.4
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
GS 136·DAL 131
+1pp
OT·33.4
Kristaps Porzingis misses 14-foot jumper
GS 136·DAL 131
+2pp
OT·58.5
LJ Cryer enters the game for Moses Moody
·
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·58.5
Warriors Full timeout
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·58.5
Warriors defensive team rebound
GS 136·DAL 131
−1pp
OT·1:01
Max Christie misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 136·DAL 131
−3pp
OT·1:07
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
GS 136·DAL 131
+0.9pp
OT·1:09
Moses Moody misses running layup
GS 136·DAL 131
+3pp
OT·1:13
Cooper Flagg lost ball turnover (Moses Moody steals)
·
GS 136·DAL 131
−5pp
OT·1:26
Gui Santos makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 136·DAL 131
OT·1:26
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 135·DAL 131
+3pp
OT·1:26
Gui Santos misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 135·DAL 131
+2pp
OT·1:26
Klay Thompson shooting foulBIG MOMENT
GS 135·DAL 131
−7pp
OT·1:49
Max Christie makes 25-foot three pointer (Cooper Flagg assists)BIG MOMENT
·
GS 135·DAL 131
+6pp
OT·2:00
Kristaps Porzingis enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
GS 135·DAL 128
OT·2:00
Mavericks defensive team rebound
GS 135·DAL 128
+0.6pp
OT·2:01
Klay Thompson blocks Moses Moody 's 23-foot three point jumper
·
GS 135·DAL 128
+1pp
OT·2:19
Draymond Green defensive rebound
GS 135·DAL 128
−0.8pp

Betting line

GS -3.5·O/U 230.5·GS -135/DAL +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 137–131 in overtime.

GS -3.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 37.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

DAL

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.1

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR