OKC
57-15
PHI
39-33
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
17
Pts
9
Reb
4
Ast
PHI · top performer
VJ Edgecombe
G · #77
35
Pts
6
Reb
4
Ast
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 22 | 10 | 5-7 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 12 | 5 | |
| 30 | 17 | 6-11 | 3-4 | 2-2 | +10 | 9 | 4 | |
| 29 | 22 | 9-13 | 1-4 | 3-3 | +13 | 5 | 5 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-3 | — | +10 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 18 | 8-14 | 1-3 | 1-2 | +9 | 4 | 6 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 19 | 18 | 6-8 | 5-7 | 1-1 | +15 | 8 | 4 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 16 | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | +12 | 2 | 2 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 9 | 3-7 | 3-6 | — | +7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 11 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-1 | — | +6 | 1 | 0 | |
| 22 | 5 | 2-5 | 1-2 | — | +4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 25 | 13 | 5-11 | 3-7 | — | +19 | 1 | 2 | |
| Team | 123 | 48-90 | 18-41 | 9-10 | 48 | 33 | ||
| DNP: A. Mitchell | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 13 | 5-18 | 3-11 | — | -19 | 6 | 2 | |
| 25 | 8 | 3-7 | 2-4 | — | -18 | 1 | 2 | |
| 19 | 0 | 0-2 | — | — | -14 | 7 | 4 | |
| 26 | 3 | 1-2 | — | 1-4 | -12 | 5 | 3 | |
| 39 | 35 | 14-28 | 7-15 | — | -17 | 6 | 4 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 22 | 15 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 3-4 | -8 | 6 | 4 | |
| 10 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | +1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 18 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-3 | — | +4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | — | -7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 26 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-7 | — | -9 | 2 | 6 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 103 | 41-94 | 17-46 | 4-9 | 44 | 29 | ||
| DNP: K. Lowry | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
53
FG %
44
33
Ast
29
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
PHI
Home
48-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-94
53
FG %
44
18-41
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
17-46
9-10
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
4-9
33
Assists
29
15
Turnovers
16
Season series
OKC wins series 2-0
PHI104@OKC129OKC123@PHI103todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -16.5
Between 10 and —
Total
226.5
Standard · +0.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-120092%PHI+75012%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
16.5
0.0 since open
Total
226.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OKC beat PHI 123-103. C. Holmgren led with 17 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. OKC outscored the other side 30-18 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
PHI vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
69 PTS · 32 REB · 21 AST
GS 66
Bench(9)
54 PTS · 16 REB · 12 AST
GS 47
PHIstarters 57% of ptsStarters(5)
59 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST
GS 44
Bench(6)
44 PTS · 19 REB · 14 AST
GS 37
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 35 | 30 | 32 | 26 | 123 |
| PHI | 25 | 18 | 36 | 24 | 103 |
Period scoring
OKC won 3 · PHI won 1
Q1
Gilgeous-Alexander 8
Edgecombe 8
Q2
Williams 9
Watford 6
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 11
Edgecombe 12
Q4
Holmgren 7
Edgecombe 10
Shooting comparison
53%
48-90
FG
44%
41-94
44%
18-41
3PT
37%
17-46
90%
9-10
FT
44%
4-9
Play-by-play · 440 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 123·PHI 103
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 123·PHI 103
- Q4·19.8
Tyrese Martin makes driving layup
OKC 123·PHI 103
- Q4·27.5
Isaiah Joe makes 29-foot three point jumper
OKC 123·PHI 101
- Q4·28.9
Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·30.9
Kenrich Williams misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
· ·
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·34.9
Trendon Watford bad pass turnover (Aaron Wiggins steals)
·
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·37.0
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·40.3
Kenrich Williams misses 21-foot pullup jump shot
· ·
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·52.9
Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 120·PHI 101
- Q4·52.9
76ers offensive team rebound
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·52.9
Jabari Walker misses free throw 1 of 2
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·52.9
Branden Carlson shooting foul
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·55.3
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·58.3
Aaron Wiggins misses running layup
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:05
MarJon Beauchamp lost ball turnover (Isaiah Joe steals)
·
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:10
Jabari Walker offensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:13
Trendon Watford misses 26-foot running jump shot
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:18
Tyrese Martin defensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:21
Branden Carlson misses 28-foot three point jumper
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:29
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:33
MarJon Beauchamp misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:50
Brooks Barnhizer enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:50
Branden Carlson enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:50
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Jared McCain
· ·
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:50
Cason Wallace personal take foul
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·1:55
Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot running jump shot (Jaylin Williams assists)
· ·
OKC 120·PHI 100
- Q4·2:01
MarJon Beauchamp lost ball turnover (Jaylin Williams steals)
· ·
OKC 117·PHI 100
- Q4·2:18
Jared McCain makes 4-foot two point shot
OKC 117·PHI 100
- Q4·2:28
MarJon Beauchamp makes running layup
OKC 115·PHI 100
Betting line
OKC -16.5·O/U 226.5·OKC -1200/PHI +750
Recap · NBA
klahoma City Thunder went into Philadelphia 76ers and beat them, 123–103. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
OKC -16.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort- Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Jalen WilliamsOKC · GDRIVES12.594- VJ EdgecombePHI · GTOUCHES66.190
Adem BonaPHI · CTS%63.889
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
145
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Joel EmbiidPHI25.3± 7.2high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI25.0± 6.5high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Joel EmbiidPHI8.0± 3.5high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Tyrese MaxeyPHI5.9± 1.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI4.6± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Joel EmbiidPHI1.3± 1.4high
- Adem BonaPHI1.1± 1.3high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
PHI
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.9%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
46.0%
118.5
PPG
114.9
114.3
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
24.1
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
12.8