NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2IND

IND

16-56

128126

ORL

38-33

NBAMon, Mar 23FinalSeriesORL wins series 2-1VegasORL -10.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	34	37	13-26	2-5	9-9	-1	6	1
J. WalkerF · #5	33	20	7-13	2-5	4-5	-2	5	2
J. HuffC · #32	28	7	2-4	1-3	2-2	+11	6	0
A. NembhardG · #2	35	13	5-9	1-3	2-2	+4	7	14
A. NesmithG · #23	35	19	6-11	5-8	2-2	+6	2	2
Bench
O. ToppinF · #1	17	8	3-5	2-4	—	+2	2	4
M. PotterC · #11	20	6	1-4	1-3	3-4	-9	4	3
T.J. McConnellG · #9	20	13	6-6	1-1	—	-1	0	6
B. SheppardG · #26	18	5	2-4	1-3	—	0	3	0
Team		128	45-82	16-35	22-24		35	32
DNP: K. Brown, Q. Jackson, K. Jones

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	37	39	13-27	4-9	9-12	-4	4	6
T. da SilvaF · #23	34	21	9-16	3-8	—	+2	3	5
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	28	17	7-11	0-2	3-3	-6	5	2
J. CarterG · #2	24	2	1-5	0-2	—	-17	2	0
D. BaneG · #3	32	17	7-15	1-5	2-3	-4	6	7
Bench
J. CainF · #8	23	5	2-5	1-3	—	+8	5	1
N. PendaF · #93	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	+2	1	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	20	6	1-3	—	4-6	+4	7	4
J. HowardG · #13	16	10	4-5	2-2	—	0	2	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	19	9	4-5	1-2	—	+5	1	3
Team		126	48-94	12-34	18-24		36	29
DNP: M. Wagner, C. Castleton, A. Morales

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

45-82

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-94

FG %

16-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-34

22-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 2-1

Dec 31

ORL112@

IND110

Jan 4

IND127@

ORL135

Mar 23

IND128@

ORL126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+40020%

ORL-53584%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -10.5↗SpreadBet ORL -10.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat ORL 128-126. P. Siakam led the way with 37 points and 6 rebounds. ORL outscored the other side 40-25 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 80

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 9 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

ORLstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 20 REB · 20 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 1:52 · 125-121

+14pp→ 33% WP

Jay Huff · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 28.9 · 128-124

+14pp→ 31% WP

Andrew Nembhard · personal foul

IND4th Quarter · 0.0 · 128-126

+15pp→ 100% WP

Pascal Siakam · blocks Paolo Banchero's driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	34	25	44	25	128
ORL	24	40	31	31	126

Period scoring

IND won 2 · ORL won 2

Walker 10

Jr. 6

Siakam 11

Banchero 17

Nesmith 16

Bane 11

Siakam 10

Banchero 11

IND

ORL

Shooting comparison

IND

ORL

55%

45-82

51%

48-94

46%

16-35

3PT

35%

12-34

92%

22-24

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 470 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·0.0
Desmond Bane offensive rebound
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·0.0
Pascal Siakam blocks Paolo Banchero's driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
IND 128·ORL 126
−15pp
Q4·5.0
Jevon Carter enters the game for Jamal Cain
·
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·5.0
Magic Full timeout
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·5.0
Magic defensive team rebound
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·5.0
Aaron Nesmith vs. Paolo Banchero (Tristan da Silva gains possession)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 128·ORL 126
−8pp
Q4·8.4
Pascal Siakam misses 13-foot turnaround jump shot
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·28.9
Pacers Full timeout
IND 128·ORL 126
Q4·28.9
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 126
−10pp
Q4·28.9
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 128·ORL 125
+3pp
Q4·28.9
Andrew Nembhard personal foulBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 124
+14pp
Q4·32.4
Jarace Walker bad pass turnover (Tristan da Silva steals)BIG MOMENT
·
IND 128·ORL 124
+7pp
Q4·34.7
Jay Huff offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 124
−6pp
Q4·37.4
Pascal Siakam misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 124
+10pp
Q4·55.5
Wendell Carter Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
IND 128·ORL 124
−8pp
Q4·55.5
Pascal Siakam defensive rebound
IND 128·ORL 124
−2pp
Q4·57.8
Desmond Bane misses running layupBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 124
−7pp
Q4·1:05
Jamal Cain defensive rebound
IND 128·ORL 124
+2pp
Q4·1:09
Aaron Nesmith misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 124
+5pp
Q4·1:19
Paolo Banchero makes layup (Tristan da Silva assists)
·
IND 128·ORL 124
+4pp
Q4·1:33
Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
IND 128·ORL 122
−14pp
Q4·1:52
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
·
IND 125·ORL 122
−7pp
Q4·1:52
Jay Huff shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 125·ORL 121
+14pp
Q4·1:52
Wendell Carter Jr. makes dunk (Desmond Bane assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
IND 125·ORL 121
+5pp
Q4·1:56
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
IND 125·ORL 119
+0.9pp
Q4·2:01
Aaron Nesmith misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
IND 125·ORL 119
+3pp
Q4·2:18
Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 1
IND 125·ORL 119
−4pp
Q4·2:18
Pascal Siakam shooting foulBIG MOMENT
IND 125·ORL 118
+7pp

Betting line

ORL -10.5·O/U 233.5·IND +400/ORL -535

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 128–126. Decided by 2.

IND +10.5 cashed (ORL lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

ORL

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR