NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22PHX

TOR

39-31

98120

PHX

40-32

NBASun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTOR -4.5

TOR · top performer

Scottie Barnes

F · #4

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 3rd Quarter · 12:00

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	27	6	3-10	0-2	—	-29	4	1
R. BarrettF · #9	23	13	5-8	1-3	2-4	-21	3	3
S. BarnesF · #4	26	17	8-9	—	1-2	-15	5	6
J. PoeltlC · #19	17	0	0-1	—	—	-13	0	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	26	11	4-9	1-5	2-2	-22	3	1
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	18	5	2-8	0-4	1-2	-6	3	2
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	6	1	0-1	—	1-2	+2	1	1
J. BattleF · #77	11	7	3-5	1-2	—	+9	2	0
J. MogboF · #2	17	8	3-5	—	2-3	-1	1	2
G. TempleG · #17	8	5	1-1	1-1	2-3	+9	1	2
J. SheadG · #23	21	2	1-6	0-4	—	-22	1	6
J. WalterG · #14	26	13	5-7	3-3	—	-9	3	1
G. DickG · #1	15	10	2-5	2-4	4-4	+8	3	1
Team		98	37-75	9-28	15-22		30	28

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. IghodaroF · #11	26	6	3-5	—	—	+7	7	1
D. BookerG · #1	31	25	9-15	3-6	4-4	+32	3	6
J. GoodwinG · #23	25	14	5-11	3-6	1-1	+3	7	0
C. GillespieG · #12	22	16	6-9	4-6	—	+6	4	3
J. GreenG · #4	30	20	8-15	2-5	2-2	+15	3	7
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	5	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
C. HuntleyF · #22	5	2	1-2	—	—	-4	0	0
R. DunnF · #0	27	12	5-8	2-4	—	+17	3	2
R. FlemingF · #20	29	11	4-8	2-5	1-1	+18	7	1
K. MaluachC · #10	17	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	+19	7	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	19	7	3-9	1-4	—	+5	2	4
K. BreaG · #14	5	0	0-3	0-2	—	-4	0	0
Team		120	46-89	18-40	10-10		43	24
DNP: R. O'Neale

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-89

FG %

9-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-40

15-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-10

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 13

PHX115@

TOR122

Mar 23

TOR98@

PHX120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-18064%

PHX+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗SpreadBet TOR -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat TOR 120-98. D. Booker paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. PHX outscored the other side 34-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 15 REB · 13 AST

GS 35

Bench(8)

51 PTS · 15 REB · 15 AST

GS 43

PHXstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 24 REB · 17 AST

GS 67

Bench(7)

39 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 5:21 · 10-19

+7pp→ 69% WP

Khaman Maluach · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)

PHX3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 48-66

+22pp→ 94% WP

Collin Gillespie · enters the game for Ryan Dunn

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	20	28	21	29	98
PHX	34	32	31	23	120

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · PHX won 3

Barnes 7

Gillespie 9

Barrett 7

Dunn 7

Barrett 6

Gillespie 23

Mogbo 8

Fleming 5

TOR

PHX

Shooting comparison

TOR

PHX

49%

37-75

52%

46-89

32%

9-28

3PT

45%

18-40

68%

15-22

100%

10-10

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 98·PHX 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 98·PHX 120
Q4·12.4
shot clock turnover
TOR 98·PHX 120
Q4·36.4
Jonathan Mogbo makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 98·PHX 120
Q4·36.4
Raptors offensive team rebound
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·36.4
Jonathan Mogbo misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·36.4
Koby Brea shooting foul
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·41.8
Jamaree Bouyea bad pass turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
·
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·51.1
Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·54.6
Koby Brea misses 25-foot three point jumper
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·1:10
Garrett Temple makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
·
TOR 97·PHX 120
Q4·1:22
CJ Huntley makes dunk (Jamaree Bouyea assists)
·
TOR 94·PHX 120
Q4·1:27
Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound
TOR 94·PHX 118
Q4·1:32
Jamison Battle misses 22-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 94·PHX 118
Q4·1:48
Rasheer Fleming offensive foul turnover
TOR 94·PHX 118
Q4·1:48
Rasheer Fleming offensive foul
TOR 94·PHX 118
Q4·2:10
Jamison Battle makes alley oop layup (Jonathan Mogbo assists)
·
TOR 94·PHX 118
Q4·2:24
Jamaree Bouyea makes running layup (Rasheer Fleming assists)
·
TOR 92·PHX 118
Q4·2:28
Jamison Battle bad pass turnover (Rasheer Fleming steals)
·
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:34
Jamison Battle defensive rebound
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:35
Jamaree Bouyea misses running dunk
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:38
Garrett Temple bad pass turnover (Jamaree Bouyea steals)
·
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:41
Garrett Temple defensive rebound
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:43
CJ Huntley misses layup
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:55
Gradey Dick makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 92·PHX 116
Q4·2:55
Gradey Dick makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 91·PHX 116
Q4·2:55
Suns Full timeout
TOR 90·PHX 116
Q4·2:55
Jamaree Bouyea shooting foul
TOR 90·PHX 116
Q4·3:17
Rasheer Fleming makes two point shot
TOR 90·PHX 116
Q4·3:18
Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound
TOR 90·PHX 114

Betting line

TOR -4.5·O/U 219.5·TOR -180/PHX +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off Toronto Raptors, 120–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHX +4.5 cashed (TOR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

PHX

54.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR