NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SAC

BKN

17-54

122126

SAC

19-53

NBASun, Mar 22FinalSeriesSAC leads series 1-0VegasSAC -6.5

BKN · top performer

Malachi Smith

G · #18

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Malik Monk

G · #0

24.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 25pp · 4th Quarter · 13.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Z. WilliamsF · #1	22	18	6-11	2-3	4-5	+1	2	3
D. WolfF · #2	12	9	4-7	1-2	0-2	-3	4	0
T. MannG · #14	26	5	2-5	1-3	—	-4	3	2
D. PowellG · #4	28	8	4-9	0-3	—	-3	3	3
N. TraoreG · #88	26	17	6-12	2-5	3-3	-1	2	4
Bench
E.J. LiddellF · #9	29	1	0-5	0-3	1-2	-1	2	4
C. JohnsonF · #31	16	7	1-3	1-1	4-4	+1	3	3
O. AgbajiG · #30	9	3	1-1	—	1-1	-6	1	1
M. SmithG · #18	29	18	7-9	3-4	1-1	-3	2	4
T. EtienneG · #10	13	14	5-6	4-4	—	+1	0	1
B. SarafG · #77	29	22	10-20	0-5	2-2	-2	3	5
Team		122	46-88	14-33	16-20		25	30
DNP: J. Wilson, J. Minott

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	28	14	6-13	—	2-4	-4	15	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	36	22	10-13	—	2-4	+1	10	2
D. DeRozanG · #10	32	10	3-7	0-2	4-4	0	0	8
K. HayesG · #3	12	2	1-4	—	—	+3	4	1
N. CliffordG · #5	27	7	2-4	2-2	1-2	+5	4	4
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	16	9	3-4	3-4	—	+7	2	2
D. CardwellC · #32	15	5	2-3	—	1-2	+7	3	2
M. MonkG · #0	30	32	8-17	7-13	9-9	+1	2	6
D. CarterG · #22	27	16	5-12	0-4	6-8	-1	5	3
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	17	9	3-5	2-2	1-1	+1	6	2
Team		126	43-82	14-27	26-34		51	30
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

46-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-82

FG %

14-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-27

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SAC leads series 1-0

Mar 22

BKN122@

SAC126today

Mar 29

SAC99@

BKN116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SAC -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+20533%

SAC-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SAC -6.5↗SpreadBet SAC -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat BKN 126-122. M. Monk paced them with 32 PTS, 2 REB, 6 AST. SAC outscored the other side 28-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 47% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

Bench(6)

65 PTS · 11 REB · 18 AST

GS 58

SACstarters 44% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 33 REB · 15 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

71 PTS · 18 REB · 15 AST

GS 58

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN3rd Quarter · 5:15 · 72-73

+19pp→ 40% WP

Malik Monk · out of bounds lost ball turnover

SAC4th Quarter · 13.5 · 120-121

+25pp→ 87% WP

Ben Saraf · personal take foul

SAC4th Quarter · 6.6 · 122-123

+19pp→ 92% WP

Drake Powell · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	34	28	20	40	122
SAC	30	27	28	41	126

Period scoring

BKN won 2 · SAC won 2

Wolf 7

Monk 12

Williams 7

Raynaud 9

Williams 9

Monk 6

Saraf 12

Johnson 19

BKN

SAC

Shooting comparison

BKN

SAC

52%

46-88

52%

43-82

42%

14-33

3PT

52%

14-27

80%

16-20

76%

26-34

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 122·SAC 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 122·SAC 126
Q4·0.1
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 122·SAC 126
Q4·0.1
Ben Saraf misses 20-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 126
+5pp
Q4·5.8
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 122·SAC 126
−0.9pp
Q4·5.8
Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Doug McDermott
·
BKN 122·SAC 125
Q4·5.8
Kings offensive team rebound
BKN 122·SAC 125
−2pp
Q4·5.8
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2
BKN 122·SAC 125
−1pp
Q4·5.8
Nolan Traore personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 125
+9pp
Q4·6.2
(00:06.2) [Nets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Nets] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 125
−5pp
Q4·6.2
Nets Full timeout
BKN 122·SAC 125
Q4·6.2
Doug McDermott enters the game for Precious Achiuwa
·
BKN 122·SAC 125
Q4·6.2
Nolan Traore steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 125
+6pp
Q4·6.6
Precious Achiuwa enters the game for Doug McDermott
·
BKN 122·SAC 125
Q4·6.6
Nets Full timeout
BKN 122·SAC 125
Q4·6.6
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 122·SAC 125
−4pp
Q4·6.6
Devin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 122·SAC 124
+2pp
Q4·6.6
Drake Powell personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 123
+19pp
Q4·9.5
Doug McDermott enters the game for Precious Achiuwa
·
BKN 122·SAC 123
Q4·9.5
Kings Full timeout
BKN 122·SAC 123
Q4·9.5
Nolan Traore makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 122·SAC 123
+13pp
Q4·9.5
Nolan Traore makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 121·SAC 123
−4pp
Q4·9.5
Malik Monk personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 120·SAC 123
−18pp
Q4·13.5
Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
BKN 120·SAC 123
−7pp
Q4·13.5
Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2
BKN 120·SAC 122
+2pp
Q4·13.5
Ben Saraf personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BKN 120·SAC 121
+25pp
Q4·18.2
(00:18.2) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)BIG MOMENT
BKN 120·SAC 121
−8pp
Q4·18.2
Precious Achiuwa defensive goaltending violation
BKN 120·SAC 121
Q4·18.2
Nolan Traore makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
BKN 120·SAC 121
−10pp
Q4·21.6
E.J. Liddell defensive rebound
BKN 118·SAC 121
−2pp

Betting line

SAC -6.5·O/U 218.5·BKN +205/SAC -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Brooklyn Nets, 126–122. Decided by 4.

BKN +6.5 cashed (SAC won by 4). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 29.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891
Chaney JohnsonBKN · F
TS%63.588
Nolan TraoreBKN · G
DRIVES9.886

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs BKN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high
Malik MonkSAC
3.8± 4.3high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high

Steals

Josh MinottBKN
1.3± 1.0high
Trevon ScottBKN
1.3± 1.8low
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

SAC

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

111.0

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR