NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3MIL

MIL

29-41

108105

PHX

39-32

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -11.5

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

23.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Collin Gillespie

G · #12

15.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 24pp · 4th Quarter · 1:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. PrinceF · #12	22	8	3-8	2-6	—	+6	2	1
K. KuzmaF · #18	24	20	7-12	3-8	3-4	+7	2	1
O. DiengF · #21	33	11	5-11	1-3	—	-2	2	2
M. TurnerC · #3	21	7	2-3	1-2	2-3	-7	3	0
R. RollinsG · #13	33	26	10-19	3-7	3-6	+6	10	7
Bench
P. NanceF · #35	27	5	2-3	1-1	—	+1	5	3
J. SimsC · #00	25	5	1-1	—	3-4	+5	11	3
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	23	11	4-10	3-6	—	+13	1	0
A. GreenG · #20	17	8	3-6	2-5	—	-8	5	2
C. ThomasG · #24	16	7	2-5	0-1	3-4	-6	1	1
Team		108	39-78	16-39	14-21		42	20
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, C. Ryan, A. Jackson Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. IghodaroF · #11	32	12	6-8	—	0-2	-11	5	3
D. BookerG · #1	35	14	4-17	2-5	4-5	+3	4	7
J. GoodwinG · #23	27	11	4-9	2-6	1-2	-3	7	4
C. GillespieG · #12	33	18	6-13	4-11	2-2	-1	4	6
J. GreenG · #4	36	24	9-17	3-6	3-7	-14	3	2
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	10	0	0-3	0-1	—	-9	1	0
R. DunnF · #0	23	12	5-9	2-5	—	+1	8	3
R. FlemingF · #20	19	8	3-6	2-5	—	+6	2	0
K. MaluachC · #10	16	2	1-3	—	—	+7	2	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	9	4	2-4	—	—	+6	2	2
Team		105	40-89	15-39	10-18		38	27
DNP: C. Huntley, K. Brea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

39-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-89

FG %

16-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-39

14-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 11

PHX129@

MIL114

Mar 22

MIL108@

PHX105today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+44019%

PHX-60086%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -11.5↗SpreadBet PHX -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat PHX 108-105. R. Rollins paced them with 26 PTS, 10 REB, 7 AST. MIL outscored the other side 42-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 51

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 23 REB · 9 AST

GS 32

PHXstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 23 REB · 22 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

26 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL4th Quarter · 3:59 · 95-95

+16pp→ 46% WP

Jordan Goodwin · misses 22-foot three point jumper

PHX4th Quarter · 2:13 · 102-100

+16pp→ 48% WP

Myles Turner · shooting foul

MIL4th Quarter · 1:16 · 105-101

+17pp→ 79% WP

Myles Turner · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Pete Nance assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	15	42	24	27	108
PHX	26	26	30	23	105

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · PHX won 2

Thomas 4

Gillespie 8

Kuzma 15

Green 8

Rollins 8

Gillespie 8

Rollins 9

Green 9

MIL

PHX

Shooting comparison

MIL

PHX

50%

39-78

45%

40-89

41%

16-39

3PT

38%

15-39

67%

14-21

56%

10-18

Play-by-play · 463 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 108·PHX 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 108·PHX 105
−0.9pp
Q4·1.2
Pete Nance defensive rebound
MIL 108·PHX 105
−3pp
Q4·4.5
Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 108·PHX 105
−9pp
Q4·4.5
Myles Turner enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.
·
MIL 108·PHX 105
Q4·4.5
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Isaiah Livers
·
MIL 108·PHX 105
Q4·4.5
Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jalen Green
· ·
MIL 108·PHX 105
Q4·4.5
Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIL 108·PHX 105
+5pp
Q4·4.5
Ryan Rollins shooting foul
·
MIL 108·PHX 104
+3pp
Q4·4.5
Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound
MIL 108·PHX 104
+0.5pp
Q4·7.1
Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
MIL 108·PHX 104
−6pp
Q4·9.7
Isaiah Livers enters the game for Khaman Maluach
·
MIL 108·PHX 104
Q4·9.7
Jalen Green enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
· ·
MIL 108·PHX 104
Q4·9.7
Suns Full timeout
MIL 108·PHX 104
Q4·9.7
Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2
·
MIL 108·PHX 104
+2pp
Q4·9.7
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Jalen Green
· ·
MIL 107·PHX 104
Q4·9.7
Jericho Sims enters the game for Myles Turner
·
MIL 107·PHX 104
Q4·9.7
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 107·PHX 104
+3pp
Q4·9.7
Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 2
·
MIL 107·PHX 104
+2pp
Q4·9.7
Oso Ighodaro personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 107·PHX 104
−7pp
Q4·13.4
Myles Turner defensive rebound
MIL 107·PHX 104
−4pp
Q4·16.8
Devin Booker misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
MIL 107·PHX 104
−9pp
Q4·22.7
Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound
MIL 107·PHX 104
Q4·23.8
Ryan Rollins misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
·
MIL 107·PHX 104
+14pp
Q4·23.8
Jordan Goodwin shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MIL 107·PHX 104
−14pp
Q4·23.8
Ryan Rollins makes 11-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 107·PHX 104
−13pp
Q4·37.7
Devin Booker out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIL 105·PHX 104
−14pp
Q4·53.3
Oso Ighodaro defensive rebound
MIL 105·PHX 104
+3pp
Q4·56.8
Ryan Rollins misses 13-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
MIL 105·PHX 104
+8pp
Q4·1:08
Jordan Goodwin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIL 105·PHX 104
+16pp

Betting line

PHX -11.5·O/U 218.5·MIL +440/PHX -600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 108–105. Decided by 3.

MIL +11.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

PHX

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

112.2

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR