NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10PHI

PHI

39-32

126116

UTAH

21-50

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -5.5

PHI · top performer

Trendon Watford

F · #12

17.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Ace Bailey

G · #19

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 4:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. EdwardsF · #11	25	8	3-10	1-5	1-1	+5	0	1
D. BarlowF · #25	4	1	—	—	1-2	0	2	0
A. BonaC · #30	27	16	7-12	—	2-4	+6	5	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	36	25	9-15	1-4	6-6	+9	5	4
V. EdgecombeG · #77	39	22	9-19	1-4	3-4	+6	13	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	24	20	7-11	0-1	6-6	+15	9	4
M. BeauchampF · #16	13	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+7	3	1
J. WalkerF · #33	18	8	3-5	0-1	2-2	+5	5	3
D. TerryF · #14	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	3	1
A. DrummondC · #1	21	4	2-5	0-2	—	+6	8	2
C. PaynePG · #20	27	16	4-10	3-7	5-5	-2	3	7
Team		126	46-92	6-27	28-32		56	27
DNP: K. Lowry

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	18	12	3-14	1-8	5-5	+5	6	4
C. WilliamsF · #5	35	15	5-15	0-4	5-6	-18	0	3
E. HarklessG · #16	36	15	6-13	1-5	2-2	-2	4	5
A. BaileyG · #19	33	25	7-20	4-14	7-8	+3	7	4
B. MbengG · #3	45	13	5-7	1-3	2-2	-14	6	7
Bench
O. TshiebweC · #34	11	8	4-6	—	—	-6	6	0
J. KoncharG · #55	25	9	4-8	0-2	1-1	-14	5	2
K. ChandlerG · #0	37	19	5-13	2-4	7-7	-4	5	4
Team		116	39-96	9-40	29-31		39	29
DNP: K. Love, B. Hinson, S. Mykhailiuk, I. Collier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

46-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-96

FG %

6-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-40

28-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

29-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Mar 5

UTAH102@

PHI106

Mar 22

PHI126@

UTAH116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-22569%

UTAH+18535%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -5.5↗SpreadBet PHI -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat UTAH 126-116. T. Watford led with 20 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 36-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 25 REB · 9 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 31 REB · 18 AST

GS 53

UTAHstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 23 REB · 23 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

36 PTS · 16 REB · 6 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI1st Quarter · 4:19 · 21-25

+15pp→ 58% WP

Andre Drummond · blocks Oscar Tshiebwe 's 4-foot driving layup

UTAH4th Quarter · 6:43 · 106-107

+14pp→ 59% WP

Jabari Walker · shooting foul

PHI4th Quarter · 4:23 · 110-108

+16pp→ 70% WP

Adem Bona · blocks Cody Williams 's 6-foot layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	38	26	31	31	126
UTAH	34	36	24	22	116

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · UTAH won 1

Payne 9

Bailey 7

Watford 8

Chandler 11

Bona 8

Filipowski 45

Grimes 8

Bona 9

PHI

UTAH

Shooting comparison

PHI

UTAH

50%

46-92

41%

39-96

22%

6-27

3PT

23%

9-40

88%

28-32

94%

29-31

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·18.2
VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·20.9
Bez Mbeng misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·27.4
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·30.2
Cody Williams misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHI 126·UTAH 116
Q4·40.7
VJ Edgecombe makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Quentin Grimes assists)
·
PHI 126·UTAH 116
−0.6pp
Q4·1:02
Kennedy Chandler makes 7-foot two point shot
PHI 124·UTAH 116
Q4·1:08
Trendon Watford makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 124·UTAH 114
Q4·1:08
Trendon Watford makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 123·UTAH 114
Q4·1:08
Ace Bailey shooting foul
PHI 122·UTAH 114
−1pp
Q4·1:27
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 122·UTAH 114
Q4·1:29
Cody Williams misses 17-foot pullup jump shot
PHI 122·UTAH 114
−1pp
Q4·1:36
Quentin Grimes makes 7-foot two point shot
PHI 122·UTAH 114
−2pp
Q4·1:48
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 120·UTAH 114
−2pp
Q4·1:48
Kennedy Chandler makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 120·UTAH 113
+0.7pp
Q4·1:48
Quentin Grimes shooting foul
PHI 120·UTAH 112
+3pp
Q4·1:56
Adem Bona makes 2-foot driving dunk (VJ Edgecombe assists)
·
PHI 120·UTAH 112
−2pp
Q4·1:58
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 118·UTAH 112
−2pp
Q4·1:58
John Konchar blocks Adem Bona 's 2-foot two point shot
·
PHI 118·UTAH 112
+2pp
Q4·1:59
Adem Bona offensive rebound
PHI 118·UTAH 112
−3pp
Q4·2:01
Quentin Grimes misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHI 118·UTAH 112
+2pp
Q4·2:17
Kennedy Chandler makes two point shot
PHI 118·UTAH 112
+2pp
Q4·2:35
VJ Edgecombe makes 2-foot running dunk (Trendon Watford assists)
·
PHI 118·UTAH 110
−2pp
Q4·2:40
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 116·UTAH 110
−0.9pp
Q4·2:43
Ace Bailey misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHI 116·UTAH 110
−3pp
Q4·3:02
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 116·UTAH 110
+3pp
Q4·3:02
Quentin Grimes makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 115·UTAH 110
−0.8pp
Q4·3:02
John Konchar shooting foulBIG MOMENT
PHI 114·UTAH 110
−7pp
Q4·3:09
Bez Mbeng makes tip shot
PHI 114·UTAH 110
+4pp

Betting line

PHI -5.5·O/U 228.5·PHI -225/UTAH +185

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 126–116.

PHI -5.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Bez MbengUTAH · G
DEFL3.998
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH · G
TOUCHES72.194
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190
Adem BonaPHI · C
TS%63.889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

UTAH

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR