NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7LAC

LAC

35-36

138131

DAL

23-48

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-1VegasLAC -7.5

LAC · top performer

Darius Garland

G · #10

36.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Cooper Flagg

F · #32

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 23pp · 4th Quarter · 1:10

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	36	34	12-22	5-9	5-5	+23	3	5
J. CollinsF · #20	29	8	3-7	1-5	1-2	+5	3	0
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	37	15	6-9	3-5	—	+5	6	5
B. LopezC · #11	35	10	4-8	2-6	0-2	+1	9	2
D. GarlandG · #10	39	41	15-24	8-12	3-3	+9	3	11
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	20	6	2-3	2-3	—	-5	6	1
I. JacksonF · #23	15	10	4-4	—	2-2	+3	6	2
K. DunnG · #8	32	4	2-6	0-1	—	-6	2	5
J. MillerG · #22	22	10	3-7	0-1	4-4	0	2	2
Team		138	51-90	21-42	15-18		40	33
DNP: B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr., K. Sanders, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	25	7	3-8	—	1-2	0	13	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	41	21	7-14	3-8	4-5	-7	6	0
N. MarshallF · #13	37	28	11-23	1-6	5-7	-19	2	4
C. FlaggF · #32	41	18	6-16	0-2	6-7	-15	10	8
M. ChristieG · #00	23	7	2-11	1-7	2-2	-15	4	0
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	14	8	2-6	2-4	2-2	-1	0	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	25	17	7-8	2-2	1-3	-9	7	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	27	12	4-6	4-4	—	+14	0	2
R. NembhardG · #9	31	13	6-10	0-1	1-1	+17	5	9
Team		131	48-102	13-34	22-29		47	25
DNP: D. Powell, C. Martin, A. Johnson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

51-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-102

FG %

21-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 2-1

Nov 15

LAC133@

DAL127

Nov 30

DAL114@

LAC110

Mar 22

LAC138@

DAL131today

Apr 8

DAL103@

LAC116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-27073%

DAL+22031%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -7.5↗SpreadBet LAC -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat DAL 138-131. D. Garland led the way with 41 points and 11 assists. DAL outscored the other side 42-32 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

108 PTS · 24 REB · 23 AST

GS 95

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

DALstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 35 REB · 13 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

50 PTS · 12 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL4th Quarter · 1:10 · 120-116

+23pp→ 32% WP

John Collins · personal foul

DAL4th Quarter · 23.6 · 120-122

+18pp→ 72% WP

P.J. Washington · makes 1-foot running dunk (Naji Marshall assists)

LAC4th Quarter · 19.1 · 122-122

+18pp→ 47% WP

Kawhi Leonard · makes driving layup (Kris Dunn assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
LAC	32	31	37	22	16	138
DAL	42	30	27	23	9	131

Period scoring

LAC won 3 · DAL won 2

Garland 10

Thompson 12

Leonard 8

Flagg 10

Leonard 13

Marshall 8

Garland 9

Marshall 6

Leonard 7

Marshall 5

LAC

DAL

Shooting comparison

LAC

DAL

57%

51-90

47%

48-102

50%

21-42

3PT

38%

13-34

83%

15-18

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
LAC 138·DAL 131
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
LAC 138·DAL 131
−0.8pp
OT·19.1
(00:19.1) [Clippers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)
LAC 138·DAL 131
OT·19.1
Naji Marshall makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
·
LAC 138·DAL 131
OT·22.7
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
LAC 138·DAL 128
OT·24.6
Kawhi Leonard misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
LAC 138·DAL 128
OT·47.5
Clippers defensive team rebound
LAC 138·DAL 128
OT·49.0
Naji Marshall misses 24-foot three point jumper
LAC 138·DAL 128
OT·1:03
Kawhi Leonard makes 8-foot two point shot
LAC 138·DAL 128
−0.7pp
OT·1:22
Naji Marshall makes driving layup
LAC 136·DAL 128
OT·1:29
Kawhi Leonard makes 30-foot three pointer
LAC 136·DAL 126
−0.5pp
OT·1:44
Cooper Flagg loose ball foul
LAC 133·DAL 126
−2pp
OT·1:44
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 133·DAL 126
−2pp
OT·1:45
Kawhi Leonard misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 133·DAL 126
+1pp
OT·1:58
Brook Lopez offensive rebound
LAC 133·DAL 126
−2pp
OT·2:00
Derrick Jones Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
LAC 133·DAL 126
+1pp
OT·2:25
Ryan Nembhard makes 3-foot two point shot
LAC 133·DAL 126
+1pp
OT·2:47
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Darius Garland
·
LAC 133·DAL 124
OT·2:47
Klay Thompson enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
LAC 133·DAL 124
OT·2:47
Mavericks Full timeout
LAC 133·DAL 124
OT·2:48
Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)
·
LAC 133·DAL 124
−5pp
OT·2:57
Brook Lopez defensive rebound
LAC 130·DAL 124
−0.9pp
OT·2:58
Ryan Nembhard misses 13-foot two point shot
LAC 130·DAL 124
−4pp
OT·3:19
Kawhi Leonard makes 1-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 130·DAL 124
−5pp
OT·3:34
Naji Marshall lost ball turnover (Kris Dunn steals)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 128·DAL 124
−6pp
OT·3:46
Darius Garland makes 25-foot three pointer (Kawhi Leonard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 128·DAL 124
−14pp
OT·3:59
Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound
LAC 125·DAL 124
−2pp
OT·4:01
Cooper Flagg misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
LAC 125·DAL 124
−6pp
OT·4:20
Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 125·DAL 124
−15pp
OT·4:40
Ryan Nembhard makes driving layup (Cooper Flagg assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 122·DAL 124
+11pp

Betting line

LAC -7.5·O/U 233.5·LAC -270/DAL +220

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 138–131 in overtime.

DAL +7.5 cashed (LAC won by 7). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Darius GarlandLAC · G
DRIVES13.896
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

DAL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.6%

113.9

PPG

114.9

114.1

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.3

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR