NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1HOU

MIA

38-33

122123

HOU

43-27

NBASat, Mar 21FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -2.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

31.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Reed Sheppard

G · #15

31.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 98pp · 4th Quarter · 0.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. FontecchioF · #0	38	21	8-12	5-9	—	+17	3	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	45	32	12-21	2-4	6-8	+5	21	4
D. MitchellG · #45	37	15	6-15	3-10	—	+8	1	9
T. HerroG · #14	39	25	10-22	2-9	3-3	+12	6	4
P. LarssonG · #9	31	19	7-12	2-3	3-5	+2	5	3
Bench
M. GardnerF · #15	20	8	3-4	2-3	—	-15	2	3
N. JovicF · #5	4	0	0-3	0-1	—	-1	1	0
K. WareC · #7	5	0	—	—	—	-15	1	0
D. SmithG · #12	7	2	1-2	0-1	—	-13	0	2
K. JakucionisG · #25	15	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	1	3
Team		122	47-92	16-41	12-16		41	31
DNP: A. Wiggins, K. Johnson, J. Jaquez Jr., N. Powell

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	27	9-17	5-9	4-4	-11	3	3
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	40	13	4-13	2-8	3-4	-4	4	4
A. SengunC · #28	33	19	9-13	—	1-2	-4	12	3
A. ThompsonG · #1	38	24	10-17	1-1	3-3	+2	18	4
R. SheppardG · #15	37	23	8-12	5-8	2-2	+17	2	14
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	14	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	+9	1	3
J. TateF · #8	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	1	0
T. EasonF · #17	20	7	2-7	1-3	2-2	-9	3	0
A. HolidayG · #0	13	8	3-4	2-3	—	+12	0	2
J. OkogieG · #20	3	1	—	—	1-2	-3	0	0
Team		123	45-86	16-35	17-21		44	33
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, C. Capela

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

47-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-86

FG %

16-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-35

12-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 28

HOU105@

MIA115

Mar 22

MIA122@

HOU123today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+12045%

HOU-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat MIA 123-122. R. Sheppard led with 23 PTS, 2 REB, 14 AST. MIA outscored the other side 33-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 92% of pts

Starters(5)

112 PTS · 36 REB · 23 AST

GS 97

Bench(5)

10 PTS · 5 REB · 8 AST

GS 6

HOUstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 39 REB · 28 AST

GS 98

Bench(5)

17 PTS · 5 REB · 5 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA4th Quarter · 5.4 · 122-121

+45pp→ 84% WP

Simone Fontecchio · makes layup (Tyler Herro assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 5.4 · 122-121

+70pp→ 83% WP

Alperen Sengun · enters the game for Tari Eason

HOU4th Quarter · 0.2 · 122-123

+98pp→ 99% WP

Amen Thompson · makes tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	29	34	33	26	122
HOU	32	32	23	36	123

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · HOU won 2

Fontecchio 10

Sheppard 11

Adebayo 16

Thompson 8

Herro 14

Durant 10

Adebayo 9

Holiday 8

MIA

HOU

Shooting comparison

MIA

HOU

51%

47-92

52%

45-86

39%

16-41

3PT

46%

16-35

75%

12-16

81%

17-21

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 122·HOU 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 122·HOU 123
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
MIA 122·HOU 123
+1pp
Q4·0.2
Amen Thompson makes tip shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 122·HOU 123
+98pp
Q4·0.2
Amen Thompson offensive rebound
MIA 122·HOU 121
−5pp
Q4·2.5
Kevin Durant misses 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
MIA 122·HOU 121
−78pp
Q4·5.4
Rockets Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
MIA 122·HOU 121
−17pp
Q4·5.4
Kel'el Ware enters the game for Davion Mitchell
·
MIA 122·HOU 121
Q4·5.4
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari EasonBIG MOMENT
·
MIA 122·HOU 121
+70pp
Q4·5.4
(00:05.4) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)BIG MOMENT
MIA 122·HOU 121
−70pp
Q4·5.4
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive goaltending violationBIG MOMENT
·
MIA 122·HOU 121
+67pp
Q4·5.4
Simone Fontecchio makes layup (Tyler Herro assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 122·HOU 121
−45pp
Q4·7.6
Tari Eason bad pass turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 120·HOU 121
−12pp
Q4·8.2
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MIA 120·HOU 121
Q4·8.6
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MIA 120·HOU 121
+12pp
Q4·8.6
Tari Eason enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
MIA 119·HOU 121
Q4·8.6
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Aaron Holiday
·
MIA 119·HOU 121
Q4·8.6
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 119·HOU 121
−4pp
Q4·8.6
Jabari Smith Jr. personal foulBIG MOMENT
·
MIA 118·HOU 121
−16pp
Q4·12.7
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
MIA 118·HOU 121
Q4·12.7
Aaron Holiday enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
MIA 118·HOU 121
Q4·12.7
Heat Full timeout
MIA 118·HOU 121
Q4·12.7
Reed Sheppard makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 118·HOU 121
+30pp
Q4·26.8
Bam Adebayo kicked ball violationBIG MOMENT
MIA 118·HOU 119
−13pp
Q4·46.3
Pelle Larsson makes 1-foot two point shot (Davion Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 118·HOU 119
−9pp
Q4·52.5
Amen Thompson steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
MIA 116·HOU 119
−9pp
Q4·1:14
Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 116·HOU 119
−10pp
Q4·1:22
Pelle Larsson defensive rebound
MIA 113·HOU 119
−0.9pp
Q4·1:23
Reed Sheppard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIA 113·HOU 119
−2pp
Q4·1:38
Jabari Smith Jr. defensive rebound
·
MIA 113·HOU 119
+0.9pp

Betting line

HOU -2.5·O/U 228.5·MIA +120/HOU -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Miami Heat, 123–122. It came down to the final possession.

MIA +2.5 cashed (HOU won by 1). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

HOU

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR