NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DEN

TOR

39-30

115121

DEN

43-28

NBAFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesDEN wins series 2-0VegasDEN -6.5

TOR · top performer

Jakob Poeltl

C · #19

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

26.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 36pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	19	7-12	1-3	4-6	+2	5	2
R. BarrettF · #9	34	18	6-14	1-5	5-5	-4	5	2
S. BarnesF · #4	38	15	7-18	1-6	—	0	8	8
J. PoeltlC · #19	35	23	10-14	—	3-6	-2	11	2
I. QuickleyG · #5	34	15	6-11	3-7	—	-2	4	8
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	14	4	1-1	—	2-2	0	2	2
J. BattleF · #77	6	3	1-3	0-2	1-1	-5	1	1
J. SheadG · #23	21	4	2-7	0-3	0-1	-7	2	5
J. WalterG · #14	23	14	4-6	4-5	2-2	-12	2	2
Team		115	44-86	10-31	17-23		40	32
DNP: T. Jackson-Davis, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, G. Dick

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	29	16	6-10	1-2	3-5	-4	5	3
C. JohnsonF · #23	31	6	2-7	0-4	2-3	+7	5	2
N. JokicC · #15	37	22	9-14	1-2	3-5	-2	8	9
J. MurrayG · #27	40	31	10-18	2-6	9-10	+4	5	6
C. BraunG · #0	33	11	5-9	1-3	—	-8	4	2
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	18	0	0-1	—	—	+7	3	4
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	28	23	8-16	7-10	—	+12	4	0
T. JonesG · #5	3	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
B. BrownG · #11	21	12	4-6	2-3	2-2	+13	3	0
Team		121	44-81	14-30	19-25		38	26
DNP: Z. Nnaji, J. Valanciunas, J. Pickett, J. Strawther

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

44-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-81

FG %

10-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-30

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 2-0

Jan 1

DEN106@

TOR103

Mar 21

TOR115@

DEN121today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+22031%

DEN-27073%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat TOR 121-115. J. Murray paced them with 31 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. DEN outscored the other side 36-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

25 PTS · 7 REB · 10 AST

GS 24

DENstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 27 REB · 22 AST

GS 76

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 11 REB · 4 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN3rd Quarter · 10:47 · 56-59

+23pp→ 73% WP

Aaron Gordon de · fensive rebound

TOR4th Quarter · 59.6 · 114-115

+21pp→ 50% WP

Nikola Jokic · shooting foul

TOR2nd Quarter · 2:41 · 49-50

+36pp→ 36% WP

Jamal Murray · enters the game for Tyus Jones

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	30	23	41	21	115
DEN	27	30	28	36	121

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · DEN won 2

Poeltl 6

Jokic 8

Walter 8

Gordon 8

Poeltl 12

de 21

Barnes 6

Murray 12

TOR

DEN

Shooting comparison

TOR

DEN

51%

44-86

54%

44-81

32%

10-31

3PT

47%

14-30

74%

17-23

76%

19-25

Play-by-play · 450 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·1.1
Nuggets defensive team rebound
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·4.3
Brandon Ingram misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 115·DEN 121
+0.6pp
Q4·6.2
Christian Braun enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·6.2
Bruce Brown enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·6.2
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·6.2
Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 115·DEN 121
Q4·6.2
Nuggets offensive team rebound
TOR 115·DEN 120
−0.5pp
Q4·6.2
Aaron Gordon misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 115·DEN 120
Q4·6.2
RJ Barrett personal take foul
TOR 115·DEN 120
+3pp
Q4·9.1
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 115·DEN 120
−3pp
Q4·9.1
Jakob Poeltl away from play foul
TOR 115·DEN 119
+2pp
Q4·9.1
Cameron Johnson enters the game for Bruce Brown
·
TOR 115·DEN 119
Q4·9.1
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun
·
TOR 115·DEN 119
Q4·9.1
Nuggets Full timeout
TOR 115·DEN 119
Q4·9.1
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
TOR 115·DEN 119
Q4·10.5
Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 119
+6pp
Q4·10.5
Raptors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 119
+5pp
Q4·10.5
Jakob Poeltl misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 119
+9pp
Q4·10.5
Nikola Jokic personal take foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 119
−13pp
Q4·12.3
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 115·DEN 119
−5pp
Q4·12.3
Bruce Brown enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
TOR 115·DEN 118
Q4·12.3
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 115·DEN 118
+1pp
Q4·12.3
Scottie Barnes personal foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 117
+14pp
Q4·31.7
Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
TOR 115·DEN 117
+3pp
Q4·33.8
Aaron Gordon blocks Scottie Barnes 's 8-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
TOR 115·DEN 117
+10pp
Q4·44.9
Nikola Jokic makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 115·DEN 117
+10pp
Q4·59.6
Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
TOR 115·DEN 115
+6pp
Q4·59.6
Nikola Jokic shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 114·DEN 115
−21pp

Betting line

DEN -6.5·O/U 239.5·TOR +220/DEN -270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Toronto Raptors, 121–115.

TOR +6.5 cashed (DEN won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

DEN

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

28.7

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR