NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4POR

POR

35-36

108104

MIN

43-28

NBAFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesMIN wins series 3-1VegasMIN -1.5

POR · top performer

Donovan Clingan

C · #23

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Rudy Gobert

C · #27

20.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 22pp · 1st Quarter · 2:59

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	32	26	10-16	4-9	2-2	+9	5	1
T. CamaraF · #33	34	6	2-7	0-3	2-2	+3	3	0
D. AvdijaF · #8	36	25	7-18	2-5	9-11	-1	8	5
D. ClinganC · #23	31	21	9-13	1-5	2-2	+2	12	4
J. HolidayG · #5	32	12	5-17	1-6	1-1	+14	2	12
Bench
K. MurrayF · #24	16	0	0-2	0-1	—	-3	2	0
R. Williams IIIC · #35	17	2	1-4	—	—	+2	12	0
M. ThybulleG · #4	16	5	1-5	1-5	2-2	-5	3	0
S. HendersonG · #00	24	11	4-10	0-3	3-4	-2	3	2
S. CissokoG · #91	2	0	—	—	—	+1	1	1
Team		108	39-92	9-37	21-24		51	25
DNP: D. Lillard, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, S. Sharpe

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	37	19	6-16	0-1	7-9	0	5	4
J. McDanielsF · #3	40	16	6-11	0-1	4-6	-11	6	3
R. GobertC · #27	38	18	7-14	—	4-6	+5	15	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	35	13	5-16	3-12	—	-14	4	2
A. DosunmuG · #13	38	17	6-15	3-6	2-2	+11	10	8
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	18	4	1-6	0-1	2-2	+7	2	2
T. Shannon Jr.G · #1	11	0	0-2	—	—	-13	1	1
B. HylandG · #8	22	17	5-11	3-7	4-4	-5	0	0
Team		104	36-91	9-28	23-29		43	21
DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, M. Conley, J. Clark, Z. Pullin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

39-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-91

FG %

9-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

21-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIN wins series 3-1

Oct 23

MIN118@

POR114

Feb 12

POR109@

MIN133

Feb 25

MIN124@

POR121

Mar 21

POR108@

MIN104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR-10551%

MIN-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

POR beat MIN 108-104. D. Clingan led with 21 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. MIN outscored the other side 27-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

90 PTS · 30 REB · 22 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

18 PTS · 21 REB · 3 AST

GS 13

MINstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 40 REB · 18 AST

GS 67

Bench(3)

21 PTS · 3 REB · 3 AST

GS 12

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR1st Quarter · 2:59 · 24-17

+22pp→ 54% WP

Rudy Gobert · misses 4-foot two point shot

POR4th Quarter · 1:40 · 103-100

+19pp→ 70% WP

Jerami Grant · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)

POR4th Quarter · 22.2 · 106-104

+22pp→ 66% WP

Jerami Grant · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	33	35	19	21	108
MIN	28	31	27	18	104

Period scoring

POR won 3 · MIN won 1

Henderson 8

Hyland 17

Clingan 11

McDaniels 9

Avdija 5

Dosunmu 9

Grant 10

Randle 10

POR

MIN

Shooting comparison

POR

MIN

42%

39-92

40%

36-91

24%

9-37

3PT

32%

9-28

88%

21-24

79%

23-29

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 108·MIN 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 108·MIN 104
−3pp
Q4·8.6
Julius Randle bad pass turnover (Donovan Clingan steals)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 108·MIN 104
−6pp
Q4·9.6
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 108·MIN 104
+5pp
Q4·9.6
Matisse Thybulle enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 107·MIN 104
Q4·9.6
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 107·MIN 104
−1pp
Q4·9.6
Julius Randle personal take foulBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
−10pp
Q4·9.6
Jerami Grant defensive rebound
POR 106·MIN 104
−4pp
Q4·10.0
Rudy Gobert misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
−11pp
Q4·10.6
Rudy Gobert offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
+10pp
Q4·11.0
Rudy Gobert misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
−11pp
Q4·11.2
Rudy Gobert offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
+10pp
Q4·11.3
Donte DiVincenzo misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
POR 106·MIN 104
−13pp
Q4·21.3
Timberwolves Full timeout
POR 106·MIN 104
Q4·22.2
Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 106·MIN 104
−22pp
Q4·23.7
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 103·MIN 104
Q4·29.9
Deni Avdija offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 104
−10pp
Q4·31.4
Jerami Grant misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 104
+10pp
Q4·32.8
Jerami Grant offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 104
−10pp
Q4·35.2
Deni Avdija misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 104
+9pp
Q4·53.2
Julius Randle makes 10-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 104
+8pp
Q4·1:12
Timberwolves defensive team rebound
POR 103·MIN 102
+3pp
Q4·1:14
Toumani Camara misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 102
+8pp
Q4·1:28
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 102
−9pp
Q4·1:28
Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 103·MIN 101
+2pp
Q4·1:28
Deni Avdija personal foulBIG MOMENT
POR 103·MIN 100
+14pp
Q4·1:40
Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 103·MIN 100
−19pp
Q4·1:56
Ayo Dosunmu steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
POR 100·MIN 100
−9pp
Q4·2:09
Rudy Gobert defensive rebound
POR 100·MIN 100
+2pp
Q4·2:11
Jrue Holiday misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
POR 100·MIN 100
+7pp

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 231.5·POR -105/MIN -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ortland Trail Blazers went into Minnesota Timberwolves and beat them, 108–104. Decided by 4.

POR +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs POR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

MIN

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR