NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21PHI

PHI

38-32

139118

SAC

18-53

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -2.5

PHI · top performer

VJ Edgecombe

G · #77

36.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 28pp · 2nd Quarter · 4:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. EdwardsF · #11	33	32	11-18	7-11	3-3	+47	0	4
D. BarlowF · #25	34	12	5-9	0-1	2-2	+31	8	2
A. BonaC · #30	20	8	2-3	—	4-4	+18	10	0
Q. GrimesG · #5	32	27	10-20	3-6	4-6	+11	5	7
V. EdgecombeG · #77	39	38	16-28	3-7	3-3	+44	7	11
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	10	2	0-2	0-1	2-2	-17	2	2
M. BeauchampF · #16	16	4	1-2	1-2	1-2	+17	2	2
J. WalkerF · #33	6	0	0-3	0-1	—	-9	1	0
D. TerryF · #14	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-10	0	0
A. DrummondC · #1	24	13	5-11	3-3	—	+13	11	4
C. PaynePG · #20	13	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	-19	3	0
K. LowryG · #7	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-21	0	0
Team		139	51-102	17-36	20-24		49	32

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	34	12	3-5	0-1	6-10	-7	7	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	36	30	11-17	3-4	5-5	-29	4	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	27	11	4-10	2-6	1-4	-25	3	8
D. DeRozanG · #10	23	13	6-10	0-1	1-2	-26	3	5
D. PlowdenG · #29	31	20	7-13	4-8	2-2	-22	2	1
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	31	11	4-9	3-7	—	0	3	0
D. CardwellC · #32	21	9	4-8	—	1-2	-4	13	3
M. MonkG · #0	16	4	1-5	0-1	2-2	+4	1	5
K. HayesG · #3	21	8	3-12	0-4	2-2	+4	5	2
Team		118	43-89	12-32	20-29		41	26
DNP: K. Murray, D. Carter, N. Clifford

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

51-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-89

FG %

17-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-32

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Jan 30

SAC111@

PHI113

Mar 20

PHI139@

SAC118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI-14860%

SAC+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗SpreadBet PHI -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat SAC 139-118. V. Edgecombe led the way with 38 points and 11 assists. PHI outscored the other side 45-33 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

117 PTS · 30 REB · 24 AST

GS 109

Bench(7)

22 PTS · 19 REB · 8 AST

GS 17

SACstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 22 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 4:27 · 53-54

+28pp→ 43% WP

Adem Bona · lost ball turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)

PHI3rd Quarter · 5:02 · 93-82

+6pp→ 91% WP

MarJon Beauchamp · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	45	26	36	32	139
SAC	33	29	27	29	118

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · SAC won 1

Edwards 13

Raynaud 9

Grimes 12

Raynaud 7

Edgecombe 13

DeRozan 13

Edwards 12

Raynaud 9

PHI

SAC

Shooting comparison

PHI

SAC

50%

51-102

48%

43-89

47%

17-36

3PT

38%

12-32

83%

20-24

69%

20-29

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 139·SAC 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 139·SAC 118
Q4·0.7
Daeqwon Plowden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)
·
PHI 139·SAC 118
Q4·6.4
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·7.3
Doug McDermott misses 28-foot three point jumper
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·9.5
Doug McDermott offensive rebound
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·10.5
Dylan Cardwell misses 6-foot tip shot
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·11.1
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·12.5
Cameron Payne blocks Killian Hayes 's 15-foot driving floating jump shot
·
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·19.0
Dylan Cardwell offensive rebound
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·20.4
Kyle Lowry blocks Daeqwon Plowden 's 8-foot driving floating jump shot
·
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·32.3
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·35.5
Jabari Walker misses 24-foot three point jumper
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·42.5
Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 139·SAC 115
Q4·42.5
Kings offensive team rebound
PHI 139·SAC 114
Q4·42.5
Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 139·SAC 114
Q4·42.5
Trendon Watford personal foul
PHI 139·SAC 114
Q4·52.3
Cameron Payne makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 139·SAC 114
Q4·52.3
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·52.3
Cameron Payne misses free throw 1 of 2
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·52.3
Dylan Cardwell shooting foul
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·58.0
Cameron Payne defensive rebound
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·1:00
Precious Achiuwa misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·1:00
Precious Achiuwa makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 138·SAC 114
Q4·1:00
Trendon Watford shooting foul
PHI 138·SAC 113
Q4·1:03
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
PHI 138·SAC 113
Q4·1:06
Kyle Lowry misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHI 138·SAC 113
Q4·1:21
Doug McDermott makes tip shot
PHI 138·SAC 113
Q4·1:22
Doug McDermott offensive rebound
PHI 138·SAC 111
Q4·1:23
Doug McDermott misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 138·SAC 111

Betting line

PHI -2.5·O/U 228.5·PHI -148/SAC +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hiladelphia 76ers went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 139–118. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

PHI -2.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190
Adem BonaPHI · C
TS%63.889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Joel EmbiidPHI
4.6± 2.6high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
1.2± 0.9high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

SAC

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.3

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR