NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+32UTAH

MIL

28-41

96128

UTAH

21-49

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIL -5.5

MIL · top performer

Ousmane Dieng

F · #21

11.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Ace Bailey

G · #19

24.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 8:44

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	19	11	3-7	0-2	5-6	-19	5	1
O. DiengF · #21	25	13	5-7	3-4	—	-27	1	1
M. TurnerC · #3	18	3	1-3	1-3	—	-12	3	1
A. GreenG · #20	12	0	0-4	0-4	—	-13	3	0
R. RollinsG · #13	23	15	5-10	3-7	2-2	-14	3	5
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	17	6	2-5	2-5	—	-4	2	1
B. PortisF · #9	24	11	4-12	1-4	2-3	-17	6	1
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	8	4	1-2	—	2-2	-2	3	1
P. NanceF · #35	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	-14	2	1
J. SimsC · #00	18	2	1-1	—	—	-9	3	1
G. HarrisG · #11	8	6	2-3	2-3	—	-2	0	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	17	4	1-5	1-5	1-2	0	1	1
C. RyanG · #30	8	5	1-4	1-3	2-3	-2	0	1
C. ThomasG · #24	23	14	5-11	1-3	3-5	-20	2	4
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	9	2	1-2	—	—	-5	1	0
Team		96	32-78	15-44	17-23		35	20

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	25	16	6-10	1-4	3-4	0	8	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	27	23	10-16	1-2	2-4	+4	3	5
E. HarklessG · #16	34	23	7-14	4-10	5-6	+33	2	10
A. GarciaG · #0	48	7	3-6	0-2	1-3	+32	11	6
A. BaileyG · #19	34	33	13-27	7-19	—	+15	9	4
Bench
B. HinsonF · #2	20	14	5-9	4-7	—	+24	3	1
O. TshiebweC · #34	15	7	3-3	—	1-1	+18	6	1
B. MbengG · #21	35	5	1-4	1-4	2-2	+34	5	6
Team		128	48-89	18-48	14-20		47	34
DNP: K. Love, S. Mykhailiuk, J. Konchar, I. Collier

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

32-78

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

15-44

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-48

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 8

UTAH99@

MIL113

Mar 20

MIL96@

UTAH128today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-25071%

UTAH+20533%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -5.5↗SpreadBet MIL -5.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat MIL 128-96. A. Bailey paced them with 33 PTS, 9 REB, 4 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 30-19 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 44% of pts

Starters(5)

42 PTS · 15 REB · 8 AST

GS 26

Bench(10)

54 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 37

UTAHstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

102 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST

GS 89

Bench(3)

26 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

UTAH1st Quarter · 8:44 · 6-6

+6pp→ 33% WP

Kyle Filipowski · kicked ball violation

MIL2nd Quarter · 6:51 · 35-40

+6pp→ 48% WP

Ousmane Dieng · makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)

MIL2nd Quarter · 5:38 · 40-44

+6pp→ 51% WP

Ryan Rollins · makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	19	25	29	23	96
UTAH	30	34	30	34	128

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · UTAH won 4

Dieng 5

Williams 11

Thomas 6

Filipowski 10

Rollins 7

Filipowski 6

Harris 6

Bailey 15

MIL

UTAH

Shooting comparison

MIL

UTAH

41%

32-78

54%

48-89

34%

15-44

3PT

38%

18-48

74%

17-23

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·5.9
Blake Hinson defensive rebound
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·8.8
Andre Jackson Jr. misses two point shot
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·18.7
shot clock turnover
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·43.2
Gary Harris makes 25-foot three pointer (Thanasis Antetokounmpo assists)
·
MIL 96·UTAH 128
Q4·1:03
Bez Mbeng out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIL 93·UTAH 128
Q4·1:09
Andre Jackson Jr. makes running layup
MIL 93·UTAH 128
Q4·1:14
Andersson Garcia lost ball turnover (Gary Harris steals)
·
MIL 91·UTAH 128
Q4·1:28
Gary Harris bad pass turnover (Andersson Garcia steals)
·
MIL 91·UTAH 128
Q4·1:38
Blake Hinson makes driving layup (Andersson Garcia assists)
·
MIL 91·UTAH 128
Q4·1:43
Blake Hinson offensive rebound
MIL 91·UTAH 126
Q4·1:45
Andersson Garcia misses free throw 1 of 1
MIL 91·UTAH 126
Q4·1:45
Gary Harris shooting foul
MIL 91·UTAH 126
Q4·1:45
Andersson Garcia makes driving layup (Elijah Harkless assists)
·
MIL 91·UTAH 126
Q4·2:00
Cormac Ryan makes free throw 3 of 3
MIL 91·UTAH 124
Q4·2:00
Oscar Tshiebwe enters the game for Ace Bailey
·
MIL 90·UTAH 124
Q4·2:00
Cormac Ryan makes free throw 2 of 3
MIL 90·UTAH 124
Q4·2:00
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 89·UTAH 124
Q4·2:00
Cormac Ryan misses free throw 1 of 3
MIL 89·UTAH 124
Q4·2:00
Blake Hinson shooting foul
MIL 89·UTAH 124
Q4·2:12
Bez Mbeng makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 89·UTAH 124
Q4·2:12
Bez Mbeng makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 89·UTAH 123
Q4·2:12
Cormac Ryan shooting foul
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:14
Gary Harris bad pass turnover (Ace Bailey steals)
·
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:23
Pete Nance defensive rebound
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:28
Elijah Harkless misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:39
Cormac Ryan loose ball foul
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:39
Jazz defensive team rebound
MIL 89·UTAH 122
Q4·2:39
Cormac Ryan misses 3-foot floating jump shot
MIL 89·UTAH 122

Betting line

MIL -5.5·O/U 227.5·MIL -250/UTAH +205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz held off Milwaukee Bucks, 128–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

UTAH +5.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Bez MbengUTAH · G
DEFL3.998
Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Elijah HarklessUTAH · G
DEFL2.688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Ace BaileyUTAH
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

UTAH

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.6%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR