NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAL

LAL

45-25

134126

MIA

38-32

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-0VegasMIA -3.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

51.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

22.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ MIA

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 10:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	38	19	8-12	—	3-5	+4	15	10
D. AytonC · #5	29	6	3-5	—	—	+13	4	0
M. SmartG · #36	28	13	2-6	1-4	8-9	+15	2	4
L. DoncicG · #77	38	60	18-30	9-17	15-19	+7	7	3
A. ReavesG · #15	40	18	5-12	2-7	6-10	+13	5	4
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	18	7	3-6	1-2	—	-5	1	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	18	5	2-3	1-1	—	+5	6	1
J. HayesC · #11	19	6	2-6	—	2-2	-7	5	1
L. KennardG · #10	13	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	2	0
Team		134	43-81	14-32	34-45		47	23
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, D. Timme, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. FontecchioF · #0	19	7	3-6	1-3	—	-9	3	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	38	28	9-19	3-8	7-10	-12	10	2
D. MitchellG · #45	32	16	7-10	2-5	—	-14	3	6
T. HerroG · #14	33	21	8-19	4-10	1-1	-12	8	5
P. LarssonG · #9	33	11	3-8	0-2	5-6	-16	2	5
Bench
K. WareC · #7	21	14	7-11	0-2	—	+8	9	1
N. PowellG · #24	33	20	7-13	1-5	5-5	+6	2	3
D. SmithG · #12	16	2	1-3	—	—	+6	2	4
K. JakucionisG · #25	16	7	3-5	1-3	—	+3	2	3
Team		126	48-94	12-38	18-22		41	31
DNP: A. Wiggins, M. Gardner, K. Johnson, J. Jaquez Jr., N. Jovic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

43-81

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-94

FG %

14-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-38

34-45

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 2-0

Nov 3

MIA120@

LAL130

Mar 20

LAL134@

MIA126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+12445%

MIA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -3.5↗SpreadBet MIA -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat MIA 134-126. L. Doncic led the way with 60 points and 7 rebounds. LAL outscored the other side 38-23 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 87% of pts

Starters(5)

116 PTS · 33 REB · 21 AST

GS 100

Bench(4)

18 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

MIAstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 26 REB · 20 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

43 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA2nd Quarter · 6:02 · 42-53

+12pp→ 82% WP

Austin Reaves · out of bounds lost ball turnover

LAL4th Quarter · 10:26 · 97-91

+14pp→ 87% WP

Dru Smith · shooting foul

MIA4th Quarter · 2:18 · 121-116

+10pp→ 20% WP

Austin Reaves · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	29	30	38	37	134
MIA	42	23	23	38	126

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · MIA won 2

Doncic 12

Adebayo 9

James 9

Adebayo 6

Doncic 19

Fontecchio 12

Doncic 20

Adebayo 14

LAL

MIA

Shooting comparison

LAL

MIA

53%

43-81

51%

48-94

44%

14-32

3PT

32%

12-38

76%

34-45

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·0.2
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·0.6
Bam Adebayo misses 27-foot three point jumper
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·2.0
Pelle Larsson offensive rebound
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·5.8
Davion Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·7.5
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·10.1
Tyler Herro misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·14.8
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 134·MIA 126
Q4·14.8
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 133·MIA 126
Q4·14.8
Luka Doncic misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 133·MIA 126
Q4·14.8
Pelle Larsson personal foul
LAL 133·MIA 126
Q4·15.6
Kasparas Jakucionis makes 2-foot two point shot
LAL 133·MIA 126
Q4·20.8
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 133·MIA 124
Q4·20.8
Deandre Ayton enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
LAL 132·MIA 124
Q4·20.8
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 132·MIA 124
Q4·20.8
Tyler Herro personal take foul
LAL 131·MIA 124
Q4·22.6
Luke Kennard enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAL 131·MIA 124
Q4·22.6
Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Simone Fontecchio
·
LAL 131·MIA 124
Q4·22.6
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 131·MIA 124
Q4·30.7
Tyler Herro out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAL 131·MIA 124
−2pp
Q4·37.8
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 131·MIA 124
Q4·37.8
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 130·MIA 124
+1pp
Q4·37.8
Austin Reaves misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 130·MIA 124
−4pp
Q4·37.8
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Norman Powell
·
LAL 130·MIA 124
Q4·37.8
(00:37.8) [Heat] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Heat] charged with a timeout
LAL 130·MIA 124
+3pp
Q4·37.8
Heat Full timeout
LAL 130·MIA 124
+2pp
Q4·37.8
Norman Powell personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 130·MIA 124
−6pp
Q4·55.2
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 1
LAL 130·MIA 124
+4pp
Q4·55.2
Davion Mitchell away from play foul
LAL 129·MIA 124
−4pp

Betting line

MIA -3.5·O/U 242.5·LAL +124/MIA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Miami Heat and beat them, 134–126.

LAL +3.5 cashed (MIA lost outright). Total cleared the 242.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

MIA

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.8%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR