NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19CHA

ORL

38-31

111130

CHA

36-34

NBAThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesCHA wins series 3-1VegasCHA -5.5

ORL · top performer

Desmond Bane

G · #3

20.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 1:02

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	28	20	6-16	1-5	7-8	-23	3	7
T. da SilvaF · #23	22	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-12	2	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	19	4	2-3	—	—	-17	2	1
D. BaneG · #3	26	24	8-15	3-5	5-5	-21	7	2
J. SuggsG · #4	22	9	4-12	1-5	—	-15	0	1
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	19	5	1-5	0-3	3-4	-14	1	1
J. CainF · #8	18	15	5-10	3-7	2-2	+9	1	1
N. PendaF · #93	21	8	3-8	2-6	—	0	2	2
C. CastletonC · #14	10	2	1-3	—	—	+12	4	1
J. CarterG · #2	19	11	4-11	3-7	—	-9	4	3
A. MoralesG · #30	12	2	1-2	—	—	+14	3	4
J. HowardG · #13	16	5	2-3	1-2	—	-24	1	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	7	2	1-1	—	—	+5	1	0
Team		111	39-93	14-42	19-21		31	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	23	11	4-8	1-3	2-3	+18	3	0
M. DiabateF · #14	24	3	1-3	—	1-1	+10	5	1
B. MillerF · #24	28	25	8-14	5-10	4-4	+27	4	8
L. BallG · #1	20	20	7-13	3-8	3-3	+12	6	5
K. KnueppelG · #7	25	17	5-11	4-9	3-3	+7	6	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	17	0	0-1	0-1	—	+9	3	0
X. TillmanF · #26	2	0	0-1	—	0-2	-4	0	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	24	13	5-5	—	3-3	+9	5	0
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	7	0	0-2	0-1	—	-8	0	0
C. WhiteG · #3	23	27	7-13	5-8	8-8	-2	3	5
J. GreenG · #10	18	5	2-4	1-3	—	-5	3	0
T. MannG · #23	7	3	1-3	1-1	—	-8	0	1
S. JamesG · #4	22	6	2-2	2-2	—	+30	3	4
Team		130	42-80	22-46	24-27		41	28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

39-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-80

FG %

14-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

22-46

19-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 3-1

Oct 30

ORL123@

CHA107

Dec 27

CHA120@

ORL105

Jan 23

CHA124@

ORL97

Mar 19

ORL111@

CHA130today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+18535%

CHA-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗SpreadBet CHA -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat ORL 130-111. B. Miller paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 14 REB · 12 AST

GS 47

Bench(8)

50 PTS · 17 REB · 12 AST

GS 35

CHAstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 24 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(8)

54 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL1st Quarter · 2:58 · 30-22

+8pp→ 59% WP

Kon Knueppel · misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot

CHA1st Quarter · 1:02 · 32-29

+10pp→ 57% WP

Hornets de · fensive team rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	32	21	24	34	111
CHA	34	38	38	20	130

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · CHA won 3

Bane 11

Ball 14

Banchero 7

Knueppel 12

Bane 8

Miller 15

Cain 13

White 12

ORL

CHA

Shooting comparison

ORL

CHA

42%

39-93

53%

42-80

33%

14-42

3PT

48%

22-46

90%

19-21

89%

24-27

Play-by-play · 487 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 111·CHA 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 111·CHA 130
Q4·18.5
Jamal Cain makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Alex Morales assists)
·
ORL 111·CHA 130
Q4·31.1
Colin Castleton defensive rebound
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·34.2
Xavier Tillman misses free throw 2 of 2
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·34.2
Hornets offensive team rebound
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·34.2
Xavier Tillman misses free throw 1 of 2
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·34.2
Alex Morales shooting foul
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·34.2
Colin Castleton bad pass turnover (Xavier Tillman steals)
·
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·38.2
Colin Castleton defensive rebound
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·40.1
Xavier Tillman misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·1:02
Noah Penda makes 27-foot three point jumper (Alex Morales assists)
·
ORL 109·CHA 130
Q4·1:11
Tre Mann makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 106·CHA 130
Q4·1:26
Alex Morales bad pass turnover (Pat Connaughton steals)
·
ORL 106·CHA 127
Q4·1:33
Jamal Cain defensive rebound
ORL 106·CHA 127
Q4·1:35
Tre Mann misses two point shot
ORL 106·CHA 127
Q4·1:46
Jase Richardson makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
ORL 106·CHA 127
Q4·1:56
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 104·CHA 127
Q4·1:56
Xavier Tillman enters the game for Sion James
·
ORL 104·CHA 126
Q4·1:56
Ryan Kalkbrenner makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 104·CHA 126
Q4·1:56
Jase Richardson personal foul
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:03
Jamal Cain bad pass turnover (Tre Mann steals)
·
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:06
Jase Richardson defensive rebound
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:09
Pat Connaughton misses 25-foot three point jumper
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:31
Ryan Kalkbrenner defensive rebound
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:35
Jamal Cain misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:44
(02:44) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:44
Tre Mann personal foul
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·2:44
Tre Mann lost ball turnover (Jase Richardson steals)
· ·
ORL 104·CHA 125
Q4·3:02
Alex Morales loose ball foul
·
ORL 104·CHA 125

Betting line

CHA -5.5·O/U 225.5·ORL +185/CHA -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Orlando Magic, 130–111.

CHA -5.5 cashed (won by 19). Total cleared the 225.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

CHA

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR