NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8LAL

LAL

44-25

124116

HOU

41-27

NBAWed, Mar 18FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-1VegasHOU -1.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

29.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

27.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 1:40

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	34	30	13-14	2-2	2-3	0	5	2
D. AytonC · #5	34	16	8-10	—	—	+1	4	2
M. SmartG · #36	34	5	2-7	1-5	—	+7	3	4
L. DoncicG · #77	38	40	12-25	7-17	9-14	+2	9	10
A. ReavesG · #15	39	14	4-9	1-3	5-6	+6	3	8
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	21	8	3-4	2-2	—	+8	3	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	10	5	2-4	1-1	—	+3	3	2
J. HayesC · #11	14	1	—	—	1-4	+6	3	1
L. KennardG · #10	18	5	2-3	1-2	—	+7	1	1
Team		124	46-76	15-32	17-27		34	30
DNP: J. Vanderbilt, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	38	18	7-11	2-5	2-3	-2	6	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	38	18	7-15	3-8	1-2	-2	5	4
T. EasonF · #17	32	10	4-13	0-3	2-2	0	6	1
A. SengunC · #28	37	27	10-15	1-2	6-6	+7	4	10
A. ThompsonG · #1	42	26	11-19	0-1	4-4	-8	11	4
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	10	3	1-3	1-3	—	-13	2	0
C. CapelaC · #30	3	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	14	3	1-3	1-2	—	-8	2	0
R. SheppardG · #15	27	11	4-12	3-8	—	-8	2	3
Team		116	45-91	11-32	15-17		38	26
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

46-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-91

FG %

15-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-32

17-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LAL win series 4-2

Apr 19

HOU98@

LAL107

Apr 22

HOU94@

LAL101

Apr 25

LAL112@

HOU108

Apr 27

LAL96@

HOU115

Apr 30

HOU99@

LAL93

May 2

LAL98@

HOU78

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+11048%

HOU-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat HOU 124-116. L. Doncic led the way with 40 points and 10 assists. HOU outscored the other side 37-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

105 PTS · 24 REB · 26 AST

GS 90

Bench(4)

19 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 19

HOUstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 32 REB · 23 AST

GS 85

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

GS 10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL4th Quarter · 3:53 · 110-109

+15pp→ 52% WP

Rui Hachimura · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 3:14 · 113-109

+15pp→ 75% WP

Luka Doncic · makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

LAL4th Quarter · 1:40 · 115-111

+20pp→ 85% WP

Alperen Sengun · out of bounds bad pass turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	35	32	22	35	124
HOU	26	29	37	24	116

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · HOU won 1

Doncic 13

Thompson 8

James 10

Jr. 10

Doncic 12

Durant 13

Doncic 10

Sengun 9

LAL

HOU

Shooting comparison

LAL

HOU

61%

46-76

49%

45-91

47%

15-32

3PT

34%

11-32

63%

17-27

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 124·HOU 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 124·HOU 116
Q4·8.5
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
LAL 124·HOU 116
Q4·9.7
Alperen Sengun misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAL 124·HOU 116
−0.6pp
Q4·20.6
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 124·HOU 116
+0.5pp
Q4·20.6
Rui Hachimura enters the game for Luke Kennard
·
LAL 123·HOU 116
Q4·20.6
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 123·HOU 116
Q4·20.6
Reed Sheppard personal take foul
LAL 122·HOU 116
−1pp
Q4·22.9
Alperen Sengun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)
·
LAL 122·HOU 116
+1pp
Q4·30.8
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 122·HOU 113
Q4·30.8
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
LAL 121·HOU 113
Q4·30.8
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
LAL 121·HOU 113
Q4·30.8
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 121·HOU 113
Q4·30.8
Tari Eason personal take foul
LAL 120·HOU 113
−2pp
Q4·32.5
Luke Kennard enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAL 120·HOU 113
Q4·32.5
(00:32.5) [Rockets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Rockets] retain their timeout
LAL 120·HOU 113
+2pp
Q4·32.5
Rockets Full timeout
LAL 120·HOU 113
Q4·39.2
Josh Okogie enters the game for Alperen Sengun
·
LAL 120·HOU 113
Q4·39.2
Amen Thompson personal foul
LAL 120·HOU 113
−2pp
Q4·53.6
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 120·HOU 113
−2pp
Q4·53.6
Tari Eason enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
LAL 120·HOU 112
Q4·53.6
Alperen Sengun makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 120·HOU 112
Q4·53.6
Marcus Smart shooting foul
LAL 120·HOU 111
+2pp
Q4·58.4
Rockets Full timeout
LAL 120·HOU 111
Q4·58.4
Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 120·HOU 111
−4pp
Q4·1:19
Kevin Durant out of bounds bad pass turnover
LAL 117·HOU 111
−4pp
Q4·1:22
LeBron James makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
LAL 117·HOU 111
−6pp
Q4·1:40
Alperen Sengun out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LAL 115·HOU 111
−20pp
Q4·1:51
LeBron James enters the game for Rui Hachimura
· ·
LAL 115·HOU 111
Q4·1:51
Luka Doncic personal foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 115·HOU 111
+15pp

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 223.5·LAL +110/HOU -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 124–116.

LAL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

HOU

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR