POR
34-36
IND
15-55
POR · top performer
Donovan Clingan
C · #23
28
Pts
13
Reb
2
Ast
IND · top performer
Jalen Slawson
F · #18
17
Pts
7
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 59.9
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 8 | 3-11 | 0-6 | 2-2 | +8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 30 | 17 | 7-11 | 3-7 | — | +9 | 2 | 1 | |
| 32 | 32 | 9-21 | 1-6 | 13-16 | +10 | 11 | 5 | |
| 25 | 28 | 10-19 | 3-5 | 5-6 | +8 | 13 | 2 | |
| 32 | 15 | 5-13 | 4-8 | 1-2 | +11 | 3 | 8 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 3-8 | 2-5 | — | -1 | 4 | 4 | |
| 21 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | -7 | 10 | 2 | |
| 14 | 6 | 2-5 | 2-4 | — | +3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 26 | 9 | 4-8 | 1-3 | — | -5 | 3 | 5 | |
| 10 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Team | 127 | 45-101 | 16-46 | 21-26 | 52 | 32 | ||
| DNP: D. Lillard, V. Krejci, B. Wesley, J. Kent, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 37 | 17 | 6-10 | 2-4 | 3-3 | -4 | 7 | 4 | |
| 33 | 10 | 4-11 | 2-4 | — | -10 | 7 | 2 | |
| 23 | 18 | 7-18 | — | 4-5 | -9 | 8 | 3 | |
| 20 | 7 | 3-5 | — | 1-2 | -17 | 5 | 10 | |
| 26 | 15 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | -16 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 21 | 11 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | -8 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 8 | 3-3 | 2-2 | — | +11 | 2 | 1 | |
| 19 | 10 | 4-8 | 2-3 | — | -1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 20 | 13 | 5-7 | — | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +9 | 1 | 2 | |
| 13 | 10 | 4-6 | 2-4 | — | +5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Team | 119 | 46-91 | 12-27 | 15-17 | 39 | 32 | ||
| DNP: M. Potter, A. Nembhard | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
45
FG %
51
32
Ast
32
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
IND
Home
45-101
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-91
45
FG %
51
16-46
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
12-27
21-26
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
15-17
32
Assists
32
13
Turnovers
11
Season series
POR wins series 2-0
IND111@POR131POR127@IND119todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
233.5
High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR-67587%IND+49017%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
233.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat IND 127-119. D. Clingan paced them with 28 PTS, 13 REB, 2 AST. POR outscored the other side 42-29 in the 2nd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
IND vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
100 PTS · 32 REB · 17 AST
GS 80
Bench(5)
27 PTS · 20 REB · 15 AST
GS 29
INDstarters 56% of ptsStarters(5)
67 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST
GS 61
Bench(6)
52 PTS · 9 REB · 12 AST
GS 43
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKobe Brown · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Slawson assists)
Jrue Holiday · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 37 | 42 | 26 | 22 | 127 |
| IND | 33 | 29 | 24 | 33 | 119 |
Period scoring
POR won 3 · IND won 1
Q1
Clingan 14
Nesmith 9
Q2
Avdija 9
Slawson 7
Q3
Camara 7
Zubac 9
Q4
Holiday 8
Peter 10
Shooting comparison
45%
45-101
FG
51%
46-91
35%
16-46
3PT
44%
12-27
81%
21-26
FT
88%
15-17
Play-by-play · 506 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 127·IND 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 127·IND 119
- Q4·14.7
Kobe Brown out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 127·IND 119
- Q4·15.4
Kobe Brown offensive rebound
POR 127·IND 119
- Q4·18.5
Taelon Peter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 127·IND 119
−0.5pp
- Q4·26.7
Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 127·IND 119
- Q4·26.7
Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 126·IND 119
- Q4·26.7
Kam Jones personal foul
POR 125·IND 119
−1pp
- Q4·32.9
Jalen Slawson makes 2-foot two point shot (Kam Jones assists)
·
POR 125·IND 119
+0.8pp
- Q4·36.2
Pacers Full timeout
POR 125·IND 117
- Q4·36.2
Pacers Full timeout
POR 125·IND 117
- Q4·36.2
Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 125·IND 117
+0.5pp
- Q4·36.2
Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 124·IND 117
- Q4·36.2
Kam Jones shooting foul
POR 123·IND 117
−2pp
- Q4·51.7
Trail Blazers defensive team rebound
POR 123·IND 117
−0.6pp
- Q4·53.4
Kam Jones misses 27-foot three point jumper
POR 123·IND 117
−2pp
- Q4·59.9
Jrue Holiday makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 123·IND 117
−8pp
- Q4·1:17
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
POR 120·IND 117
−2pp
- Q4·1:18
Jarace Walker misses layup
POR 120·IND 117
+2pp
- Q4·1:29
Deni Avdija enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
POR 120·IND 117
- Q4·1:29
(01:29) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Trail Blazers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
POR 120·IND 117
−7pp
- Q4·1:29
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 120·IND 117
- Q4·1:29
Scoot Henderson offensive foul turnover
POR 120·IND 117
- Q4·1:29
Scoot Henderson offensive foulBIG MOMENT
POR 120·IND 117
+7pp
- Q4·1:52
Kobe Brown makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Slawson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
POR 120·IND 117
+8pp
- Q4·1:57
Taelon Peter defensive rebound
POR 120·IND 114
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:58
Jerami Grant misses driving layup
POR 120·IND 114
+2pp
- Q4·2:08
Robert Williams III offensive rebound
POR 120·IND 114
−2pp
- Q4·2:11
Jrue Holiday misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
POR 120·IND 114
+2pp
- Q4·2:24
Jerami Grant enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
POR 120·IND 114
Betting line
POR -11.5·O/U 233.5·POR -675/IND +490
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 127–119.
IND +11.5 cashed (POR won by 8). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 12.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Deni AvdijaPOR · FDRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Ivica ZubacIND · CCONT9.298
Jay HuffIND · CCONT8.796
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
IND vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 165 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Pascal SiakamIND23.8± 7.9high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Ivica ZubacIND9.5± 4.1high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Andrew NembhardIND8.5± 4.7high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND8.1± 4.3high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
Blocks
- Jay HuffIND1.9± 1.9high
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Tyrese HaliburtonIND1.6± 1.3high
- Jalen SlawsonIND1.5± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
IND
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶45.8%
114.6
PPG
114.9
112.4
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.7
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶13.8