NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28DEN

PHI

37-32

96124

DEN

42-27

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesDEN wins series 2-0VegasDEN -15.5

PHI · top performer

Trendon Watford

F · #12

13.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Christian Braun

G · #0

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ DEN

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. EdwardsF · #11	25	11	4-12	2-7	1-1	-16	5	3
D. BarlowF · #25	27	8	4-7	0-2	—	-18	9	4
A. BonaC · #30	15	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	-7	3	1
Q. GrimesG · #5	26	12	5-12	1-5	1-2	-21	2	1
V. EdgecombeG · #77	23	9	3-12	0-3	3-3	-21	3	4
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	22	12	3-7	0-2	6-6	-9	3	6
M. BeauchampF · #16	20	16	6-11	4-8	—	-4	2	1
D. TerryF · #14	18	8	4-7	0-1	—	-9	0	3
A. DrummondC · #1	28	9	4-10	1-4	—	-18	10	3
C. PaynePG · #20	18	5	2-11	1-6	0-1	-17	2	2
K. LowryG · #7	18	0	0-2	0-2	—	0	3	2
Team		96	37-94	9-41	13-15		42	30

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GordonF · #32	19	12	4-8	2-3	2-2	+17	5	2
C. JohnsonF · #23	23	18	6-8	3-3	3-4	+22	2	1
N. JokicC · #15	25	8	4-7	0-1	—	+14	7	14
J. MurrayG · #27	26	12	3-7	1-3	5-7	+23	6	4
C. BraunG · #0	27	22	7-9	2-3	6-6	+21	5	3
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	9	2	1-3	0-1	—	+2	2	0
S. JonesF · #21	24	7	3-4	1-2	—	+8	5	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	19	8	3-10	0-1	2-6	+15	9	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	19	9	3-11	2-7	1-2	+7	4	4
T. JonesG · #5	10	5	2-4	1-3	—	+2	1	2
B. BrownG · #11	19	12	4-7	2-3	2-2	+12	3	2
J. PickettG · #24	7	4	1-1	1-1	1-2	-2	1	1
J. StrawtherG · #3	13	5	2-7	1-2	—	-1	3	1
Team		124	43-86	16-33	22-31		53	35

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

37-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-86

FG %

9-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-33

13-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 2-0

Jan 6

DEN125@

PHI124

Mar 18

PHI96@

DEN124today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+75012%

DEN-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -15.5↗SpreadBet DEN -15.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat PHI 124-96. C. Braun led with 22 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST. DEN outscored the other side 38-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 32

Bench(6)

50 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST

GS 39

DENstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 25 REB · 24 AST

GS 68

Bench(8)

52 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 40

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	22	18	31	25	96
DEN	38	34	28	24	124

Period scoring

PHI won 2 · DEN won 2

Edgecombe 5

Braun 10

Payne 5

Johnson 11

Beauchamp 6

Braun 8

Beauchamp 7

Strawther 5

PHI

DEN

Shooting comparison

PHI

DEN

39%

37-94

50%

43-86

22%

9-41

3PT

48%

16-33

87%

13-15

71%

22-31

Play-by-play · 482 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 96·DEN 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 96·DEN 124
Q4·14.4
shot clock turnover
PHI 96·DEN 124
Q4·38.9
Dalen Terry makes running dunk (Trendon Watford assists)
·
PHI 96·DEN 124
Q4·43.0
Jalen Pickett bad pass turnover (Trendon Watford steals)
·
PHI 94·DEN 124
Q4·59.1
Nuggets defensive team rebound
PHI 94·DEN 124
Q4·1:00
MarJon Beauchamp misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 94·DEN 124
Q4·1:07
Jalen Pickett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)
· ·
PHI 94·DEN 124
Q4·1:20
Andre Drummond makes 2-foot dunk (Trendon Watford assists)
·
PHI 94·DEN 121
Q4·1:39
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 92·DEN 121
Q4·1:42
Jalen Pickett misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 92·DEN 121
Q4·1:42
Jalen Pickett makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 92·DEN 121
Q4·1:42
Kyle Lowry shooting foul
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·1:45
Jalen Pickett defensive rebound
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·1:47
Kyle Lowry misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·1:54
Kyle Lowry defensive rebound
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·1:57
Julian Strawther misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·2:04
Zeke Nnaji defensive rebound
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·2:06
MarJon Beauchamp misses two point shot
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·2:22
76ers Full timeout
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·2:24
Julian Strawther makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)
·
PHI 92·DEN 120
Q4·2:50
Trendon Watford makes driving layup (Dalen Terry assists)
·
PHI 92·DEN 117
Q4·3:07
MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound
PHI 90·DEN 117
Q4·3:08
Tyus Jones misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
PHI 90·DEN 117
Q4·3:21
Dalen Terry makes 1-foot running dunk
PHI 90·DEN 117
Q4·3:26
Trendon Watford defensive rebound
PHI 88·DEN 117
Q4·3:32
Zeke Nnaji misses 25-foot three point jumper
PHI 88·DEN 117
Q4·3:40
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
·
PHI 88·DEN 117
Q4·3:42
MarJon Beauchamp misses 27-foot three point jumper
PHI 88·DEN 117
Q4·3:48
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas
· ·
PHI 88·DEN 117

Betting line

DEN -15.5·O/U 235.5·PHI +750/DEN -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Philadelphia 76ers, 124–96. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

DEN -15.5 cashed (won by 28). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
VJ EdgecombePHI · G
TOUCHES66.190
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.790
Aaron GordonDEN · F
CONT6.790

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Joel EmbiidPHI
25.3± 7.2high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
25.0± 6.5high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Joel EmbiidPHI
8.0± 3.5high
VJ EdgecombePHI
6.1± 2.7high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Tyrese MaxeyPHI
5.9± 1.9high

Blocks

Joel EmbiidPHI
1.3± 1.4high
Adem BonaPHI
1.1± 1.3high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Paul GeorgePHI
1.5± 1.1high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

DEN

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR