NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12MIN

PHX

39-30

104116

MIN

42-27

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesPHX wins series 2-1VegasMIN -3.5

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

19.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIN · top performer

Julius Randle

F · #30

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 18pp · 1st Quarter · 7:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	29	9	3-6	3-6	—	+4	2	2
O. IghodaroF · #11	34	16	7-12	—	2-2	-6	10	4
D. BookerG · #1	35	34	11-27	1-7	11-14	-3	6	3
C. GillespieG · #12	37	12	4-13	3-9	1-1	-10	4	7
J. GreenG · #4	27	9	3-17	2-6	1-2	-3	1	5
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
H. HighsmithF · #19	9	3	1-2	1-2	—	-8	2	1
R. DunnF · #0	17	7	3-3	1-1	—	-10	4	1
R. FlemingF · #20	15	9	3-7	2-4	1-2	-11	1	0
K. MaluachC · #10	12	2	1-3	—	—	-2	2	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	24	3	1-6	0-2	1-2	-11	8	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	1	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		104	37-97	13-37	17-23		40	25
DNP: A. Coffey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. RandleF · #30	33	32	10-17	2-3	10-13	+8	7	2
J. McDanielsF · #3	37	16	6-12	1-3	3-4	-4	7	4
R. GobertC · #27	37	9	4-7	—	1-3	+2	19	1
D. DiVincenzoG · #0	28	0	0-8	0-6	—	+3	1	3
A. DosunmuG · #13	34	19	9-17	1-4	—	+11	5	2
Bench
K. AndersonF · #12	25	7	3-4	0-1	1-2	+12	5	6
N. ReidC · #11	18	11	3-5	1-3	4-4	+10	3	5
B. HylandG · #8	29	22	8-14	4-8	2-3	+18	2	5
Team		116	43-84	9-28	21-29		49	28
DNP: J. Ingles, R. Zikarsky, M. Conley, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

37-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-84

FG %

13-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-28

17-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 2-1

Nov 22

MIN113@

PHX114

Dec 9

PHX108@

MIN105

Mar 18

PHX104@

MIN116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+14241%

MIN-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗SpreadBet MIN -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat PHX 116-104. J. Randle paced them with 32 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. Julius Randle's play in the 1st quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIN vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 23 REB · 21 AST

GS 57

Bench(7)

24 PTS · 17 REB · 4 AST

GS 22

MINstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 39 REB · 12 AST

GS 62

Bench(3)

40 PTS · 10 REB · 16 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX3rd Quarter · 11:44 · 66-64

+9pp→ 45% WP

Collin Gillespie · makes 24-foot three pointer (Jalen Green assists)

PHX1st Quarter · 7:37 · 15-7

+18pp→ 58% WP

Julius Randle · lost ball turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)

MIN3rd Quarter · 2:46 · 80-83

+8pp→ 69% WP

Bones Hyland · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	39	24	23	18	104
MIN	36	28	28	24	116

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · MIN won 3

Booker 12

Ighodaro 11

Ighodaro 6

McDaniels 9

Booker 12

Ighodaro 64

Booker 8

Randle 11

PHX

MIN

Shooting comparison

PHX

MIN

38%

37-97

51%

43-84

35%

13-37

3PT

32%

9-28

74%

17-23

72%

21-29

Play-by-play · 522 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·21.7
shot clock turnover
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·44.6
Julius Randle defensive rebound
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·46.8
Jamaree Bouyea misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·1:04
Bones Hyland makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 104·MIN 116
Q4·1:04
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Jordan Goodwin
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Isaiah Livers enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Devin Booker
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Bones Hyland misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:04
Jordan Goodwin personal foul
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:18
Oso Ighodaro bad pass turnover (Julius Randle steals)
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:19
Oso Ighodaro offensive rebound
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:21
Jaden McDaniels blocks Oso Ighodaro 's 2-foot layup
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:32
Rudy Gobert enters the game for Kyle Anderson
·
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:32
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 104·MIN 115
Q4·1:32
Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 104·MIN 114
Q4·1:32
Oso Ighodaro shooting foul
PHX 104·MIN 113
+0.7pp
Q4·1:47
Jordan Goodwin makes two point shot
PHX 104·MIN 113
Q4·1:59
Oso Ighodaro offensive rebound
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·1:59
Oso Ighodaro misses tip shot
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·1:59
Oso Ighodaro offensive rebound
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·2:01
Devin Booker misses driving layup
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·2:10
shot clock turnover
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·2:17
Bones Hyland enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·2:17
Timberwolves Full timeout
PHX 102·MIN 113
Q4·2:38
Devin Booker makes 1-foot two point shot
PHX 102·MIN 113

Betting line

MIN -3.5·O/U 221.5·PHX +142/MIN -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

innesota Timberwolves held off Phoenix Suns, 116–104.

MIN -3.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 221.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Rudy GobertMIN · C
CONT1299+
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Ayo DosunmuMIN · G
TS%63.086

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Anthony EdwardsMIN
23.7± 9.4high
LaMelo BallMIN
22.2± 8.0high

Rebounds

Rudy GobertMIN
10.1± 3.9high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

LaMelo BallMIN
7.3± 2.5high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Ayo DosunmuMIN
3.9± 3.1high

Blocks

Rudy GobertMIN
1.4± 1.2high
Joan BeringerMIN
1.1± 2.1high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Donte DiVincenzoMIN
1.2± 1.3high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

MIN

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.6%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.8

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR