NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CLE

CLE

42-27

123116

MIL

28-40

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesCLE wins series 3-1VegasCLE -12.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kevin Porter Jr.

G · #7

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 2:26

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	25	9	4-8	1-4	—	+13	2	2
E. MobleyC · #4	33	27	12-21	0-2	3-5	+7	15	2
J. HardenG · #1	34	27	7-10	2-4	11-13	+17	5	6
D. MitchellG · #45	34	19	4-14	1-4	10-13	-15	8	3
S. MerrillG · #5	28	17	6-12	3-8	2-2	+22	6	2
Bench
T. BryantC · #3	10	5	2-4	1-3	—	-5	0	0
D. SchroderG · #8	16	3	1-2	0-1	1-1	-8	1	5
M. StrusG · #2	23	6	2-6	2-6	—	+1	6	4
J. TysonG · #20	13	2	1-5	0-2	—	-5	0	2
K. EllisG · #14	24	8	3-4	2-2	—	+8	3	1
Team		123	42-86	12-36	27-34		46	27
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Enaruna, N. Tomlin, R. Minix

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. PrinceF · #12	23	8	3-7	2-4	—	-20	2	1
K. KuzmaF · #18	17	3	1-6	1-4	—	-6	0	2
J. SimsC · #00	16	4	2-3	—	0-1	-18	6	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	33	25	8-15	1-4	8-8	-9	3	10
R. RollinsG · #13	34	19	6-13	3-7	4-4	-5	3	4
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	33	19	8-19	3-7	—	+8	9	4
P. NanceF · #35	30	13	5-6	3-4	0-2	+7	7	1
O. DiengF · #21	30	19	7-12	5-8	0-2	+2	5	1
A. GreenG · #20	26	6	2-7	2-7	—	+6	4	1
Team		116	42-88	20-45	12-17		39	24
DNP: T. Antetokounmpo, G. Harris, G. Trent Jr., C. Ryan, C. Thomas, A. Jackson Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

42-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-88

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-45

27-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CLE wins series 3-1

Oct 26

MIL113@

CLE118

Nov 18

MIL106@

CLE118

Feb 26

CLE116@

MIL118

Mar 18

CLE123@

MIL116today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-62586%

MIL+45518%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗SpreadBet CLE -12.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat MIL 123-116. J. Harden paced them with 27 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. MIL outscored the other side 34-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

99 PTS · 36 REB · 15 AST

GS 87

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 10 REB · 12 AST

GS 18

MILstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 14 REB · 17 AST

GS 46

Bench(4)

57 PTS · 25 REB · 7 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL3rd Quarter · 7:14 · 67-68

+13pp→ 32% WP

Keon Ellis · enters the game for Donovan Mitchell

CLE3rd Quarter · 4:26 · 77-71

+14pp→ 87% WP

Dennis Schroder · enters the game for James Harden

CLE3rd Quarter · 2:26 · 79-78

+18pp→ 74% WP

Kevin Porter Jr. · offensive charge

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	37	20	28	38	123
MIL	24	34	29	29	116

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · MIL won 2

Harden 14

Rollins 9

Harden 5

Portis 9

Merrill 10

Jr. 16

Mobley 9

Nance 10

CLE

MIL

Shooting comparison

CLE

MIL

49%

42-86

48%

42-88

33%

12-36

3PT

44%

20-45

79%

27-34

71%

12-17

Play-by-play · 461 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 123·MIL 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 123·MIL 116
Q4·11.9
Max Strus defensive rebound
CLE 123·MIL 116
Q4·14.0
Kevin Porter Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
CLE 123·MIL 116
−1pp
Q4·20.9
James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 123·MIL 116
+0.8pp
Q4·20.9
James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 122·MIL 116
Q4·20.9
Kevin Porter Jr. personal take foul
CLE 121·MIL 116
−3pp
Q4·29.1
Cavaliers offensive team rebound
CLE 121·MIL 116
Q4·29.1
Donovan Mitchell misses technical free throw
CLE 121·MIL 116
+2pp
Q4·29.1
excess timeout technical foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 121·MIL 116
−5pp
Q4·29.1
Bucks Full timeout
CLE 121·MIL 116
+4pp
Q4·30.2
Cavaliers Full timeout
CLE 121·MIL 116
Q4·30.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 121·MIL 116
−3pp
Q4·30.2
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CLE 121·MIL 115
+6pp
Q4·30.2
(00:30.2) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Cavaliers] charged with a timeoutBIG MOMENT
CLE 121·MIL 114
−6pp
Q4·30.2
Evan Mobley loose ball foul
CLE 121·MIL 114
+4pp
Q4·30.2
James Harden bad pass turnover
CLE 121·MIL 114
+1pp
Q4·32.9
Bobby Portis makes driving layup (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)
·
CLE 121·MIL 114
Q4·38.8
Bucks Full timeout
CLE 121·MIL 112
Q4·38.8
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 121·MIL 112
Q4·38.8
Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 120·MIL 112
Q4·38.8
AJ Green personal take foul
CLE 119·MIL 112
−1pp
Q4·55.4
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 119·MIL 112
−1pp
Q4·55.4
Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 119·MIL 111
Q4·55.4
Max Strus shooting foul
CLE 119·MIL 110
+2pp
Q4·1:05
Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound
CLE 119·MIL 110
Q4·1:08
Sam Merrill misses 27-foot three point jumper
CLE 119·MIL 110
Q4·1:22
Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound
CLE 119·MIL 110
Q4·1:26
AJ Green misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CLE 119·MIL 110
−0.7pp
Q4·1:33
Evan Mobley makes layup (James Harden assists)
·
CLE 119·MIL 110
−1pp

Betting line

CLE -12.5·O/U 226.5·CLE -625/MIL +455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 123–116.

MIL +12.5 cashed (CLE won by 7). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high
Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
5.1± 2.3high

Assists

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high
Olivier SarrCLE
0.8± 1.6low

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

MIL

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

117.4

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR