NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5OKC

OKC

54-15

113108

ORL

38-30

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesOKC wins series 2-0VegasOKC -9.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

29.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 3:40

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	16	0	0-2	—	—	+2	7	8
C. HolmgrenC · #7	33	20	8-14	0-2	4-5	+10	12	1
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	36	40	14-27	3-5	9-11	-4	5	2
L. DortG · #5	19	5	1-5	1-5	2-2	-24	2	0
A. MitchellG · #25	28	16	5-12	1-3	5-5	-9	2	3
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	21	8	2-7	2-6	2-2	+11	6	2
A. CarusoG · #9	24	2	1-3	0-1	—	+19	8	1
I. JoeG · #11	22	5	2-5	1-3	—	+2	4	0
A. WigginsG · #21	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	+1	3	1
C. WallaceG · #22	23	9	3-6	1-2	2-2	+8	2	1
J. McCainG · #3	12	6	3-6	0-1	—	+9	2	0
Team		113	40-90	9-29	24-27		53	19
DNP: P. Sandfort, K. Williams

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	32	12-21	3-6	5-6	+9	10	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	32	13	4-12	1-6	4-4	+16	4	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	29	11	3-9	0-4	5-6	+19	5	3
D. BaneG · #3	36	16	6-11	4-7	—	-6	3	1
J. SuggsG · #4	33	14	5-12	4-9	—	-5	7	6
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	5	1-6	1-3	2-2	-28	1	0
J. CainF · #8	10	3	1-4	1-2	—	+14	2	1
N. PendaF · #93	7	0	—	—	—	-16	2	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	6	0	—	—	—	-1	1	1
J. CarterG · #2	19	11	4-11	2-7	1-2	-4	4	1
J. HowardG · #13	20	3	1-7	1-6	—	-23	2	1
Team		108	37-93	17-50	17-20		41	21
DNP: J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

40-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-93

FG %

9-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-50

24-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 2-0

Feb 4

ORL92@

OKC128

Mar 17

OKC113@

ORL108today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-45582%

ORL+35022%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat ORL 113-108. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 40 points and 5 rebounds.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 63

Bench(6)

32 PTS · 25 REB · 5 AST

GS 29

ORLstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 29 REB · 16 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

22 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC2nd Quarter · 1:03 · 51-44

+15pp→ 87% WP

Aaron Wiggins · enters the game for Cason Wallace

OKC4th Quarter · 5:07 · 97-93

+12pp→ 82% WP

Isaiah Joe · misses 41-foot three point jumper

OKC4th Quarter · 3:40 · 98-95

+13pp→ 86% WP

Ajay Mitchell · makes free throw 1 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	26	25	34	28	113
ORL	22	28	29	29	108

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · ORL won 2

Gilgeous-Alexander 11

Banchero 8

Holmgren 8

Suggs 11

Gilgeous-Alexander 19

Banchero 15

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Bane 8

OKC

ORL

Shooting comparison

OKC

ORL

44%

40-90

40%

37-93

31%

9-29

3PT

34%

17-50

89%

24-27

85%

17-20

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
OKC 113·ORL 108
Q4·0.0
Desmond Bane makes 22-foot three point jumper
OKC 113·ORL 108
Q4·2.4
Desmond Bane offensive rebound
OKC 113·ORL 105
Q4·2.4
Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point jumper
OKC 113·ORL 105
Q4·5.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lost ball turnover (Jamal Cain steals)
·
OKC 113·ORL 105
Q4·9.2
Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Suggs assists)
·
OKC 113·ORL 105
Q4·15.4
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 1
OKC 113·ORL 102
Q4·15.4
Tristan da Silva shooting foul
OKC 112·ORL 102
Q4·15.4
Chet Holmgren makes 1-foot layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 112·ORL 102
Q4·20.8
Paolo Banchero makes driving layup
OKC 110·ORL 102
Q4·27.8
Ajay Mitchell lost ball turnover (Desmond Bane steals)
·
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·35.1
Jamal Cain enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.
· ·
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·35.1
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·46.4
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·48.5
Wendell Carter Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·1:01
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 110·ORL 100
Q4·1:01
Cason Wallace enters the game for Jaylin Williams
· ·
OKC 109·ORL 100
Q4·1:01
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 109·ORL 100
Q4·1:01
Tristan da Silva personal foul
OKC 108·ORL 100
−0.7pp
Q4·1:12
Jalen Suggs lost ball turnover (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)
·
OKC 108·ORL 100
Q4·1:12
(01:12) [Thunder] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Thunder] retain their timeout
OKC 108·ORL 100
−1pp
Q4·1:12
Thunder Coach's Challenge
OKC 108·ORL 100
+0.5pp
Q4·1:13
5 second violation
OKC 108·ORL 100
+1pp
Q4·1:13
Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 108·ORL 100
Q4·1:13
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 108·ORL 100
−0.8pp
Q4·1:13
Jalen Suggs blocks Cason Wallace 's 7-foot driving layup
·
OKC 108·ORL 100
Q4·1:36
Paolo Banchero makes driving layup
OKC 108·ORL 100
Q4·1:49
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot turnaround jump shot
OKC 108·ORL 98
−0.8pp

Betting line

OKC -9.5·O/U 224.5·OKC -455/ORL +350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 113–108. Decided by 5.

ORL +9.5 cashed (OKC won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

140

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

ORL

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

26.0

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR