NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18NO

DAL

23-46

111129

23-46

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesNO wins series 3-1VegasNO -8.5

DAL · top performer

Naji Marshall

F · #13

26.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

22.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 2:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	31	18	7-13	4-8	—	-6	7	2
N. MarshallF · #13	33	32	12-24	2-4	6-8	-6	8	7
C. FlaggF · #32	30	21	10-21	0-3	1-2	+1	7	8
M. ChristieG · #00	32	12	4-7	4-6	—	+2	4	0
R. NembhardG · #9	25	2	1-8	0-2	—	-3	4	5
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	18	6	2-9	2-7	—	-20	4	1
D. PowellF · #7	13	1	—	—	1-2	-6	3	1
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	19	9	4-7	1-1	—	-14	9	1
T. SmithF · #23	5	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	-3	1	0
B. WilliamsG · #10	5	0	0-2	—	—	-16	0	1
J. PoulakidasG · #1	18	3	1-5	1-5	—	-19	2	0
A. JohnsonG · #8	12	4	2-5	0-1	—	0	2	1
Team		111	44-104	14-39	9-14		51	27

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	29	10	4-9	1-3	1-1	+8	3	4
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	27	11-13	—	5-9	+5	4	1
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	33	17	7-15	2-9	1-2	+10	7	7
Y. MissiC · #21	28	4	1-4	—	2-4	-2	10	5
S. BeyG · #41	35	23	8-18	1-6	6-6	+1	6	3
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	20	13	5-7	2-2	1-1	+20	10	1
D. QueenC · #22	21	9	2-4	1-1	4-4	+14	6	2
J. PooleG · #3	18	4	2-9	0-6	0-1	+10	1	2
M. PeavyG · #14	2	0	0-1	—	0-2	+3	2	1
J. HawkinsG · #24	2	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+3	2	0
J. FearsG · #0	25	17	7-14	3-7	0-2	+18	6	5
Team		129	48-95	11-35	22-34		57	31
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, D. Murray

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

44-104

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-95

FG %

14-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-35

9-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO wins series 3-1

Nov 6

NO101@

DAL99

Nov 22

NO115@

DAL118

Dec 23

DAL113@

NO119

Mar 17

DAL111@

NO129today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+27027%

NO-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -8.5↗SpreadBet NO -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat DAL 129-111. Z. Williamson paced them with 27 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 30 REB · 22 AST

GS 69

Bench(7)

26 PTS · 21 REB · 5 AST

GS 17

NOstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 30 REB · 20 AST

GS 74

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 27 REB · 11 AST

GS 41

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	26	28	32	25	111
NO	32	35	36	26	129

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · NO won 4

Washington 9

Bey 10

Christie 9

Williamson 17

Marshall 12

Washington 15

Flagg 10

Nembhard 7

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

42%

44-104

51%

48-95

36%

14-39

3PT

31%

11-35

64%

9-14

65%

22-34

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·6.8
Tyler Smith defensive rebound
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
Micah Peavy misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
Pelicans offensive team rebound
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
Micah Peavy misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
AJ Johnson shooting foul
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
Micah Peavy offensive rebound
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·8.8
Micah Peavy misses running dunk
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·13.1
Jordan Hawkins defensive rebound
·
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·16.4
Ryan Nembhard misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·22.3
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·26.0
Tyler Smith misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·37.6
Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 2 of 2
·
DAL 111·NO 129
Q4·37.6
Jordan Hawkins makes free throw 1 of 2
·
DAL 111·NO 128
Q4·37.6
John Poulakidas shooting foul
DAL 111·NO 127
Q4·49.6
Jordan Hawkins offensive rebound
·
DAL 111·NO 127
Q4·49.6
Jeremiah Fears misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 111·NO 127
Q4·54.7
AJ Johnson makes 2-foot layup (Ryan Nembhard assists)
·
DAL 111·NO 127
Q4·55.6
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
DAL 109·NO 127
Q4·59.9
AJ Johnson blocks Derik Queen 's 15-foot pullup jump shot
·
DAL 109·NO 127
Q4·1:12
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
DAL 109·NO 127
Q4·1:15
Ryan Nembhard misses 15-foot fade away jump shot
DAL 109·NO 127
Q4·1:23
Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Micah Peavy assists)
· ·
DAL 109·NO 127
Q4·1:23
Micah Peavy defensive rebound
DAL 109·NO 124
Q4·1:25
Derik Queen blocks AJ Johnson 's 1-foot driving layup
·
DAL 109·NO 124
Q4·1:34
Micah Peavy out of bounds lost ball turnover
DAL 109·NO 124
Q4·1:42
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
DAL 109·NO 124
Q4·1:45
Tyler Smith misses free throw 2 of 2
DAL 109·NO 124
Q4·1:45
Micah Peavy enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
DAL 109·NO 124

Betting line

NO -8.5·O/U 240.5·DAL +270/NO -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans held off Dallas Mavericks, 129–111.

NO -8.5 cashed (won by 18). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

115.5

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR