NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25CHI

MEM

23-44

107132

CHI

28-40

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasCHI -7.5

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

13.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

25.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 8pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:29

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	24	13	6-11	1-3	0-1	-26	3	0
C. CowardF · #23	24	17	7-13	2-7	1-2	-21	0	5
J. WellsF · #0	23	16	5-9	2-5	4-4	-15	3	1
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	26	12	5-11	2-5	—	-35	2	7
R. RupertG · #32	27	3	1-6	1-4	—	-29	4	1
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	8	2	1-2	—	—	-1	2	0
T. BurtonF · #5	21	8	2-6	1-3	3-4	-4	8	1
T. HendricksF · #22	21	16	6-11	2-5	2-2	+9	3	0
D. JarreauG · #77	23	5	2-4	0-1	1-2	-3	5	6
C. SpencerG · #24	16	12	3-7	2-4	4-4	+9	1	7
J. MashackG · #21	26	3	1-6	1-2	—	-9	6	2
Team		107	39-86	14-39	15-19		37	30
DNP: G. Jackson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	27	13	5-10	0-4	3-3	+30	5	0
M. BuzelisF · #14	32	29	12-22	5-13	—	+26	7	1
L. MillerF · #33	28	10	3-5	2-3	2-3	+21	7	2
T. JonesG · #30	28	17	7-12	1-5	2-2	+13	5	5
J. GiddeyG · #3	34	16	6-12	2-5	2-2	+25	15	13
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	18	13	3-4	2-3	5-6	-8	0	0
P. WilliamsF · #44	20	9	3-7	3-6	—	-4	0	2
N. RichardsC · #13	13	5	2-4	—	1-2	+6	6	1
L. OlbrichC · #47	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
R. DillinghamG · #7	27	15	6-15	3-9	—	+15	1	4
Y. KawamuraG · #8	12	5	1-2	—	3-3	+2	1	2
Team		132	48-93	18-48	18-21		47	30
DNP: I. Okoro

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

39-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-93

FG %

14-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-48

15-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Mar 17

MEM107@

CHI132today

Mar 29

CHI124@

MEM125

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+22531%

CHI-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -7.5↗SpreadBet CHI -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MEM 132-107. J. Giddey stuffed the line with 16 PTS, 15 REB, and 13 AST. CHI outscored the other side 35-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 12 REB · 14 AST

GS 42

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 45

CHIstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 39 REB · 21 AST

GS 87

Bench(6)

47 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 3:40 · 21-22

+7pp→ 64% WP

Tyler Burton · shooting foul

MEM2nd Quarter · 6:29 · 38-37

+8pp→ 46% WP

Tyler Burton · bad pass turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)

CHI3rd Quarter · 11:20 · 59-64

+7pp→ 70% WP

Leonard Miller · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	27	30	29	21	107
CHI	29	32	36	35	132

Period scoring

MEM won 0 · CHI won 4

Wells 7

Jones 9

Coward 12

Smith 17

Spencer 10

Buzelis 18

Wells 5

Dillingham 10

MEM

CHI

Shooting comparison

MEM

CHI

45%

39-86

52%

48-93

36%

14-39

3PT

38%

18-48

79%

15-19

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·5.1
shot clock turnover
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·26.6
Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·28.5
Rayan Rupert misses 8-foot pullup jump shot
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·39.0
Yuki Kawamura out of bounds bad pass turnover
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·50.1
Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·52.4
Rayan Rupert misses 24-foot three point jumper
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·1:11
Patrick Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)
·
MEM 107·CHI 132
Q4·1:33
Taylor Hendricks makes running layup (Cedric Coward assists)
·
MEM 107·CHI 129
Q4·1:40
Rob Dillingham lost ball turnover (Taylor Hendricks steals)
·
MEM 105·CHI 129
Q4·1:54
Cedric Coward makes 15-foot jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
MEM 105·CHI 129
Q4·1:56
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·1:56
Leonard Miller blocks Cedric Coward 's 5-foot driving layup
·
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·2:08
Lachlan Olbrich out of bounds lost ball turnover
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·2:13
Bulls defensive team rebound
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·2:15
Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·2:28
Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 103·CHI 129
Q4·2:28
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Jalen Smith
·
MEM 103·CHI 128
Q4·2:28
Taylor Hendricks enters the game for Tyler Burton
·
MEM 103·CHI 128
Q4·2:28
Walter Clayton Jr. shooting foul
MEM 103·CHI 128
Q4·2:28
Leonard Miller makes two point shot
MEM 103·CHI 128
Q4·2:29
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
MEM 103·CHI 126
Q4·2:30
Rob Dillingham misses 30-foot three point jumper
MEM 103·CHI 126
Q4·2:44
Tyler Burton makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 103·CHI 126
Q4·2:44
Tyler Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 102·CHI 126
Q4·2:44
Patrick Williams shooting foul
MEM 101·CHI 126
Q4·2:45
Walter Clayton Jr. offensive rebound
MEM 101·CHI 126
Q4·2:47
Jahmai Mashack misses 25-foot three point jumper
MEM 101·CHI 126
Q4·2:51
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Tre Jones
·
MEM 101·CHI 126

Betting line

CHI -7.5·O/U 243.5·MEM +225/CHI -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Memphis Grizzlies, 132–107. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHI -7.5 cashed (won by 25). Total stayed UNDER 243.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Leonard MillerCHI · F
TS%63.387

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Ja MorantMEM
19.6± 8.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

CHI

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

114.7

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

27.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR