NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8GS

33-35

125117

WSH

16-51

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesGS leads series 1-0VegasGS -7.5

GS · top performer

Kristaps Porzingis

C · #7

28.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Bilal Coulibaly

G · #0

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 3:56

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	29	5	2-8	1-5	—	-8	8	7
G. SantosF · #15	28	18	7-10	4-6	—	+20	4	5
D. MeltonG · #8	30	27	12-17	0-2	3-3	+10	5	4
B. PodziemskiG · #2	28	10	3-11	1-4	3-4	+8	4	3
W. RichardG · #3	32	0	0-6	0-4	—	-2	3	2
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	16	8	4-5	0-1	—	+2	2	0
O. YurtsevenC · #77	2	2	—	—	2-2	+1	0	1
K. PorzingisC · #7	26	30	8-13	1-5	13-14	+7	5	4
G. Payton IIG · #0	24	15	7-10	—	1-3	-6	6	2
N. WilliamsG · #19	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	+6	1	0
P. SpencerG · #61	22	10	3-9	2-4	2-2	+2	3	4
Team		125	46-91	9-32	24-28		41	32
DNP: A. Horford, Q. Post, M. Moody

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ReeseF · #15	24	12	5-7	—	2-2	-5	6	1
T. YoungG · #3	21	21	7-10	3-5	4-5	+3	2	5
B. CoulibalyG · #0	33	21	7-10	2-2	5-6	+6	8	4
W. RileyG · #27	39	21	6-13	4-8	5-6	+5	4	5
T. JohnsonG · #12	23	13	5-12	2-7	1-2	+2	1	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	32	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-2	8	2
T. VukcevicF · #00	15	11	3-9	2-7	3-4	-10	2	1
S. CooperG · #13	13	4	1-3	—	2-2	-15	2	1
J. WatkinsG · #5	16	6	3-4	—	—	-11	3	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	12	4	2-6	0-3	—	-17	0	1
J. HardyG · #8	12	0	—	—	—	+4	0	0
Team		117	40-78	13-34	24-29		36	24
DNP: J. Champagnie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

46-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-78

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-34

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 1-0

Mar 16

GS125@

WSH117today

Mar 28

WSH126@

GS131

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-31076%

WSH+25029%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -7.5↗SpreadBet GS -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat WSH 125-117. K. Porzingis paced them with 30 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST. GS outscored the other side 34-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 24 REB · 21 AST

GS 52

Bench(6)

65 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 59

WSHstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH4th Quarter · 4:29 · 115-109

+7pp→ 14% WP

Brandin Podziemski · shooting foul

GS4th Quarter · 3:56 · 117-110

+8pp→ 95% WP

Will Riley · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	34	30	34	27	125
WSH	23	34	29	31	117

Period scoring

GS won 2 · WSH won 2

Porzingis 10

Young 7

Melton 9

Young 12

Melton 10

Johnson 31

Porzingis 12

Coulibaly 9

WSH

Shooting comparison

WSH

51%

46-91

51%

40-78

28%

9-32

3PT

38%

13-34

86%

24-28

83%

24-29

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·6.1
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·12.7
Brandin Podziemski misses 23-foot three point jumper
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·37.4
Bilal Coulibaly bad pass turnover (Gui Santos steals)
·
GS 125·WSH 117
−1pp
Q4·43.3
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·45.1
De'Anthony Melton misses driving floating jump shot
GS 125·WSH 117
Q4·1:05
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 125·WSH 117
−1pp
Q4·1:05
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 125·WSH 116
Q4·1:05
Gui Santos shooting foul
GS 125·WSH 115
+1pp
Q4·1:08
Bilal Coulibaly offensive rebound
GS 125·WSH 115
Q4·1:08
Kristaps Porzingis blocks Julian Reese 's 1-foot two point shot
·
GS 125·WSH 115
Q4·1:08
Julian Reese offensive rebound
GS 125·WSH 115
Q4·1:10
Bilal Coulibaly misses driving layup
GS 125·WSH 115
−0.5pp
Q4·1:28
Gary Payton II makes 2-foot reverse layup (Gui Santos assists)
·
GS 125·WSH 115
−0.6pp
Q4·1:35
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
GS 123·WSH 115
−1pp
Q4·1:37
Kristaps Porzingis misses 25-foot three point jumper
GS 123·WSH 115
+0.7pp
Q4·1:55
Will Riley traveling turnover
GS 123·WSH 115
−2pp
Q4·2:07
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 123·WSH 115
+1pp
Q4·2:07
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 122·WSH 115
Q4·2:07
Bilal Coulibaly shooting foul
GS 121·WSH 115
−3pp
Q4·2:24
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 121·WSH 115
−2pp
Q4·2:24
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 121·WSH 114
+0.6pp
Q4·2:24
Gary Payton II personal foul
GS 121·WSH 113
+4pp
Q4·2:29
Anthony Gill offensive rebound
GS 121·WSH 113
+1pp
Q4·2:34
Will Riley misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot
GS 121·WSH 113
−1pp
Q4·2:44
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 121·WSH 113
+1pp
Q4·2:44
Kristaps Porzingis makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 120·WSH 113
Q4·2:44
Julian Reese shooting foul
GS 119·WSH 113
−3pp
Q4·3:01
Will Riley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)
·
GS 119·WSH 113
+3pp

Betting line

GS -7.5·O/U 234.5·GS -310/WSH +250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 125–117.

GS -7.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Alex SarrWSH
6.8± 2.8high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

WSH

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

46.2%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

114.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR