NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12ATL

ORL

38-29

112124

ATL

37-31

NBAMon, Mar 16FinalSeriesATL leads series 3-0VegasATL -3.5

ORL · top performer

Wendell Carter Jr.

C · #34

13.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

36.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 3:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	33	18	3-13	1-2	11-16	-16	10	3
T. da SilvaF · #23	28	7	2-8	1-5	2-2	-8	2	1
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	28	17	6-10	2-5	3-3	-17	3	1
D. BaneG · #3	31	18	7-16	3-7	1-1	-24	2	4
J. SuggsG · #4	28	8	4-11	0-5	—	-10	6	5
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	14	7	3-9	1-5	—	-3	6	1
J. CainF · #8	14	2	1-1	—	—	0	3	1
N. PendaF · #93	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	+4	1	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	5	4	2-3	—	—	+8	3	1
J. CarterG · #2	19	13	5-8	3-6	—	-10	3	2
J. HowardG · #13	19	10	4-10	2-5	—	+8	1	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	5	6	2-4	1-2	1-1	+8	0	0
Team		112	40-95	14-43	18-23		40	20

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	37	15	5-12	2-6	3-4	+4	7	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	37	24	10-19	2-6	2-2	+12	15	13
C. McCollumG · #3	32	9	3-14	1-7	2-2	+20	2	3
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	37	41	12-21	9-14	8-9	+27	7	5
D. DanielsG · #5	36	15	6-9	0-1	3-5	+7	12	3
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	4	3	1-3	1-3	—	-4	0	0
J. KumingaF · #0	19	7	2-7	—	3-5	-8	8	1
M. GueyeF · #18	8	0	0-1	0-1	—	-8	0	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	10	2	1-2	—	—	+8	2	0
J. LandaleC · #31	11	8	3-4	1-1	1-2	+8	1	2
G. VincentG · #4	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	0	1
Team		124	43-93	16-40	22-29		54	33
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

40-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-93

FG %

14-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-40

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

Oct 24

ATL111@

ORL107

Nov 5

ORL112@

ATL127

Mar 16

ORL112@

ATL124today

Apr 1

ATL130@

ORL101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL+13043%

ATL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗SpreadBet ATL -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat ORL 124-112. N. Alexander-Walker led the way with 41 points and 7 rebounds. ATL outscored the other side 34-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 23 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(7)

44 PTS · 17 REB · 6 AST

GS 36

ATLstarters 84% of pts

Starters(5)

104 PTS · 43 REB · 28 AST

GS 93

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 12

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	21	29	33	29	112
ATL	34	33	37	20	124

Period scoring

ORL won 1 · ATL won 3

Jr. 8

Alexander-Walker 14

Banchero 9

Alexander-Walker 10

Bane 11

Johnson 12

Howard 10

Daniels 17

ORL

ATL

Shooting comparison

ORL

ATL

42%

40-95

46%

43-93

33%

14-43

3PT

40%

16-40

78%

18-23

76%

22-29

Play-by-play · 505 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·4.8
shot clock turnover
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·17.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·19.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·40.5
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·43.8
Jase Richardson misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·49.3
Magic defensive team rebound
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·50.9
Jalen Johnson misses 24-foot three point jumper
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·53.4
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·56.1
Jalen Johnson misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·1:16
Goga Bitadze makes two point shot
ORL 112·ATL 124
Q4·1:16
Goga Bitadze offensive rebound
ORL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:18
Jett Howard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
ORL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:33
Onyeka Okongwu makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)
·
ORL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:51
Jase Richardson makes free throw 1 of 1
ORL 110·ATL 121
Q4·1:51
Onyeka Okongwu shooting foul
ORL 109·ATL 121
−0.6pp
Q4·1:51
Jase Richardson makes running layup
ORL 109·ATL 121
Q4·1:53
Nickeil Alexander-Walker lost ball turnover (Jase Richardson steals)
·
ORL 107·ATL 121
Q4·2:13
Jamal Cain makes 1-foot layup (Goga Bitadze assists)
·
ORL 107·ATL 121
Q4·2:25
Jamal Cain defensive rebound
ORL 105·ATL 121
Q4·2:28
CJ McCollum misses 23-foot three point jumper
ORL 105·ATL 121
Q4·2:44
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ORL 105·ATL 121
Q4·2:44
Jett Howard misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 105·ATL 121
Q4·2:54
Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk
ORL 105·ATL 121
Q4·2:59
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
ORL 105·ATL 119
Q4·3:01
Jase Richardson misses driving layup
ORL 105·ATL 119
Q4·3:12
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
ORL 105·ATL 119
Q4·3:12
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
ORL 105·ATL 118
Q4·3:12
Jamal Cain shooting foul
ORL 105·ATL 117

Betting line

ATL -3.5·O/U 232.5·ORL +130/ATL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Orlando Magic, 124–112.

ATL -3.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

ATL

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

26.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR