NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23ATL

MIL

27-39

99122

ATL

36-31

NBASat, Mar 14FinalSeriesATL wins series 2-1VegasATL -11.5

MIL · top performer

Ryan Rollins

G · #13

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 4:04

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	24	11	5-8	0-3	1-2	-12	4	1
M. TurnerC · #3	24	8	3-7	1-4	1-1	-16	6	3
J. SimsC · #00	25	7	2-2	—	3-4	-7	2	1
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	30	18	7-13	0-2	4-4	-19	7	7
R. RollinsG · #13	31	22	8-11	4-7	2-2	-13	3	8
Bench
T. PrinceF · #12	12	0	—	—	—	-9	2	1
B. PortisF · #9	27	14	5-15	3-7	1-2	-16	6	1
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	4	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
P. NanceF · #35	15	3	1-2	1-2	0-2	-8	1	2
G. HarrisG · #11	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-6	0	0
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	14	5	2-7	1-5	—	-2	1	0
A. GreenG · #20	21	9	3-6	2-5	1-1	-5	2	0
C. ThomasG · #24	3	0	0-3	0-1	—	-4	0	0
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	4	2	1-1	—	—	+1	2	0
Team		99	37-76	12-37	13-18		37	24

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	27	4	2-6	0-4	—	+16	4	4
J. JohnsonF · #1	35	23	10-20	2-5	1-2	+23	10	12
C. McCollumG · #3	27	30	10-18	7-10	3-4	+17	3	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	34	20	7-14	3-7	3-3	+24	3	1
D. DanielsG · #5	29	8	4-8	0-1	—	+14	7	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	15	13	4-7	0-2	5-5	+8	4	1
M. GueyeF · #18	13	0	0-2	0-1	—	0	2	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	20	7	2-7	1-4	2-2	+4	6	2
J. LandaleC · #31	17	10	5-7	—	0-2	+9	6	1
C. KolokoC · #35	3	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
G. VincentG · #4	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	0	0	1
K. WallaceG · #2	3	2	1-2	0-1	—	0	2	1
R. DennisG · #00	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	3	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		122	47-95	14-38	14-18		47	29
DNP: B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

37-76

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-95

FG %

12-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Jan 19

MIL112@

ATL110

Mar 5

ATL131@

MIL113

Mar 14

MIL99@

ATL122today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL+38021%

ATL-50083%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -11.5↗SpreadBet ATL -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MIL 122-99. J. Johnson stuffed the line with 23 PTS, 10 REB, and 12 AST. ATL outscored the other side 35-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 22 REB · 20 AST

GS 54

Bench(9)

33 PTS · 15 REB · 4 AST

GS 15

ATLstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 72

Bench(9)

37 PTS · 20 REB · 6 AST

GS 32

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	30	22	26	21	99
ATL	31	29	35	27	122

Period scoring

MIL won 0 · ATL won 4

Rollins 10

Alexander-Walker 8

Portis 5

Kispert 9

Green 5

McCollum 11

Jr. 8

McCollum 8

MIL

ATL

Shooting comparison

MIL

ATL

49%

37-76

49%

47-95

32%

12-37

3PT

37%

14-38

72%

13-18

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 458 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 99·ATL 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 99·ATL 122
Q4·22.2
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
MIL 99·ATL 122
Q4·25.3
Gary Trent Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 99·ATL 122
Q4·36.1
Christian Koloko makes layup (Keaton Wallace assists)
·
MIL 99·ATL 122
Q4·51.8
Gary Trent Jr. makes 14-foot step back jumpshot (Pete Nance assists)
·
MIL 99·ATL 120
Q4·1:11
Keaton Wallace makes two point shot
MIL 97·ATL 120
Q4·1:16
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
MIL 97·ATL 118
Q4·1:19
Gary Harris misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 97·ATL 118
Q4·1:26
Pete Nance defensive rebound
MIL 97·ATL 118
Q4·1:29
Mouhamed Gueye misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 97·ATL 118
Q4·1:39
Andre Jackson Jr. makes tip in dunk
MIL 97·ATL 118
Q4·1:39
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·1:40
Gary Trent Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·1:46
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·1:50
Keaton Wallace misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:05
Keaton Wallace defensive rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:10
Pete Nance misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:34
Christian Koloko out of bounds lost ball turnover
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:53
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Pete Nance misses free throw 2 of 2
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
RayJ Dennis enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Christian Koloko enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Pete Nance misses free throw 1 of 2
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·2:55
Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul
MIL 95·ATL 118
Q4·3:04
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 95·ATL 118

Betting line

ATL -11.5·O/U 228.5·MIL +380/ATL -500

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Milwaukee Bucks, 122–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -11.5 cashed (won by 23). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

ATL

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.2%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.5

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR