NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2HOU

22-46

105107

HOU

41-25

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesHOU leads series 2-1VegasHOU -5.5

NO · top performer

Dejounte Murray

G · #5

29.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

26.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · 4th Quarter · 7.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	35	8	2-12	1-7	3-5	+3	9	3
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	34	21	7-10	—	7-9	-3	5	1
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	37	14	5-15	3-8	1-2	+7	6	7
D. MurrayG · #5	31	35	14-18	4-5	3-5	+19	7	4
S. BeyG · #41	30	5	2-11	0-4	1-1	-15	5	1
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	22	8	3-3	2-2	—	0	4	2
D. QueenC · #22	12	0	0-3	0-1	—	-11	4	1
Y. MissiC · #21	25	5	1-3	—	3-4	+1	7	0
J. FearsG · #0	13	9	3-9	3-5	—	-11	1	0
Team		105	37-84	13-32	18-26		48	19
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	40	32	13-24	3-7	3-4	-1	6	5
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	27	0	0-3	0-3	—	+5	4	2
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	38	16	6-16	3-10	1-1	+4	5	3
T. EasonF · #17	19	4	2-11	0-3	—	0	8	0
A. ThompsonG · #1	40	23	7-15	2-3	7-8	+11	12	8
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	9	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	3	0
C. CapelaC · #30	22	9	4-6	—	1-2	-5	5	2
J. OkogieG · #20	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	+4	4	2
R. SheppardG · #15	32	18	6-14	5-11	1-2	-1	5	3
Team		107	40-94	14-41	13-17		52	25
DNP: A. Sengun, A. Holiday, T. Newton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

37-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-94

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-41

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU leads series 2-1

Dec 19

HOU128@

NO133

Jan 19

NO110@

HOU119

Mar 14

NO105@

HOU107today

Mar 29

HOU134@

NO102

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+18535%

HOU-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -5.5↗SpreadBet HOU -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat NO 107-105. K. Durant paced them with 32 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. Kevin Durant's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 32 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

22 PTS · 16 REB · 3 AST

GS 21

HOUstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 35 REB · 18 AST

GS 59

Bench(4)

32 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU4th Quarter · 21.7 · 104-103

+16pp→ 33% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)

HOU4th Quarter · 13.0 · 104-103

+16pp→ 47% WP

Dejounte Murray · steps out of bounds turnover

HOU4th Quarter · 7.6 · 104-105

+19pp→ 66% WP

Kevin Durant · makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	24	25	23	33	105
HOU	28	29	23	27	107

Period scoring

NO won 1 · HOU won 2

Murray 10

Thompson 9

Murray 9

Sheppard 9

Jones 8

Durant 9

Murray 13

Sheppard 9

HOU

Shooting comparison

HOU

44%

37-84

43%

40-94

41%

13-32

3PT

34%

14-41

69%

18-26

76%

13-17

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 105·HOU 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 105·HOU 107
Q4·0.0
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 105·HOU 107
Q4·0.0
Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot fade away jump shot
NO 105·HOU 107
+3pp
Q4·1.1
Trey Murphy III offensive rebound
NO 105·HOU 107
+2pp
Q4·3.4
Dejounte Murray misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 105·HOU 107
+9pp
Q4·3.4
Yves Missi enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 105·HOU 107
Q4·3.4
Clint Capela enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
NO 105·HOU 107
Q4·3.4
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 105·HOU 107
−1pp
Q4·3.4
Amen Thompson personal take foul
NO 104·HOU 107
−3pp
Q4·6.3
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 104·HOU 107
−4pp
Q4·6.3
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 104·HOU 106
+1pp
Q4·6.3
Dejounte Murray personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 104·HOU 105
+14pp
Q4·7.6
Zion Williamson out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
NO 104·HOU 105
+13pp
Q4·7.6
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
NO 104·HOU 105
Q4·7.6
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 104·HOU 105
Q4·7.6
Kevin Durant makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 104·HOU 105
+19pp
Q4·13.0
Rockets Full timeout
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·13.0
Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·13.0
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie
·
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·13.0
Rockets Full timeout
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·13.0
Dejounte Murray steps out of bounds turnoverBIG MOMENT
NO 104·HOU 103
+16pp
Q4·14.8
Yves Missi enters the game for Karlo Matkovic
·
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·14.8
Josh Okogie enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
NO 104·HOU 103
Q4·14.8
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 104·HOU 103
−2pp
Q4·21.7
Jabari Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 104·HOU 103
+16pp
Q4·31.8
Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 104·HOU 100
+6pp
Q4·31.8
Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 103·HOU 100
−2pp
Q4·31.8
Reed Sheppard shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 102·HOU 100
−14pp
Q4·48.1
Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound
NO 102·HOU 100
−3pp

Betting line

HOU -5.5·O/U 230.5·NO +185/HOU -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off New Orleans Pelicans, 107–105. Decided by 2.

NO +5.5 cashed (HOU won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

HOU

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.4%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

25.1

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR