NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16DET

MEM

23-43

110126

DET

48-18

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -16.5

MEM · top performer

Javon Small

G · #10

23.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

28.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 16pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	22	17	7-11	3-6	—	-14	1	1
T. HendricksF · #22	30	7	2-6	0-3	3-5	+6	5	0
C. CowardF · #23	25	7	3-8	1-3	—	-17	3	2
T. JeromeG · #2	25	21	8-17	3-7	2-3	-17	1	3
C. SpencerG · #24	30	19	7-13	2-5	3-3	-16	2	5
Bench
T. GibsonF · #67	12	3	1-5	1-2	—	+3	3	0
T. BurtonF · #5	27	4	1-9	1-5	1-2	-24	5	1
D. JarreauG · #77	24	6	2-6	0-2	2-2	-3	7	3
J. MashackG · #21	23	3	1-5	0-2	1-2	+1	3	2
J. SmallG · #10	23	23	6-9	4-6	7-7	+1	3	3
Team		110	38-89	15-41	19-24		33	20
DNP: J. Wells, W. Clayton Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. RobinsonF · #55	24	14	6-8	2-4	—	+24	6	4
J. DurenC · #0	28	30	12-15	—	6-10	+20	13	0
J. GreenG · #31	21	6	2-6	2-4	—	+19	1	2
M. SasserG · #25	22	16	6-11	4-8	—	+20	3	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	30	17	6-11	2-4	3-3	+23	8	15
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	4	0	0-1	—	—	-1	1	0
I. StewartF · #28	20	10	5-10	0-2	—	-2	4	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	17	12	5-7	—	2-2	-1	4	1
I. JonesC · #13	5	2	1-1	—	—	-3	2	0
C. LeVertG · #8	23	4	2-10	0-5	—	-10	1	2
K. HuerterG · #27	24	11	4-8	2-6	1-1	+1	5	2
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	-10	4	7
Team		126	50-92	12-35	14-18		52	36
DNP: T. Smith, B. Klintman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

DET

Home

38-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-92

FG %

15-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-35

19-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Nov 4

DET114@

MEM106

Mar 13

MEM110@

DET126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -16.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+90010%

DET-160094%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -16.5↗SpreadBet DET -16.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

16.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat MEM 126-110. J. Duren paced them with 30 PTS, 13 REB, 0 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 21 REB · 9 AST

GS 32

DETstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 87

Bench(7)

43 PTS · 21 REB · 13 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET1st Quarter · 5:55 · 13-18

+6pp→ 84% WP

Jahmai Mashack · enters the game for Ty Jerome

DET2nd Quarter · 7:35 · 44-46

+6pp→ 81% WP

Duncan Robinson · makes 20-foot running jump shot (Daniss Jenkins assists)

DET3rd Quarter · 6:54 · 75-88

+16pp→ 96% WP

Ty Jerome · misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	35	26	23	26	110
DET	37	31	30	28	126

Period scoring

MEM won 0 · DET won 4

Small 12

Hendricks 19

Spencer 9

Duren 10

Prosper 10

Jerome 42

Small 8

Small 17

MEM

DET

Shooting comparison

MEM

DET

43%

38-89

54%

50-92

37%

15-41

3PT

34%

12-35

79%

19-24

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 475 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 110·DET 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 110·DET 126
Q4·9.0
shot clock turnover
MEM 110·DET 126
Q4·33.1
Javon Small makes 23-foot running jump shot (DeJon Jarreau assists)
·
MEM 110·DET 126
Q4·39.3
DeJon Jarreau defensive rebound
MEM 107·DET 126
Q4·43.0
Caris LeVert misses 23-foot three point jumper
MEM 107·DET 126
Q4·59.0
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
MEM 107·DET 126
Q4·1:01
Tyler Burton misses free throw 2 of 2
MEM 107·DET 126
Q4·1:01
Tyler Burton makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 107·DET 126
Q4·1:01
Paul Reed shooting foul
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:11
Jahmai Mashack defensive rebound
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:13
Paul Reed misses layup
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:20
Kevin Huerter defensive rebound
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:24
DeJon Jarreau misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:35
Isaac Jones makes driving layup
MEM 106·DET 126
Q4·1:54
Paul Reed defensive rebound
MEM 106·DET 124
Q4·1:57
Javon Small misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
MEM 106·DET 124
Q4·2:22
Kevin Huerter makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 106·DET 124
Q4·2:22
Pistons Full timeout
MEM 106·DET 123
Q4·2:22
DeJon Jarreau shooting foul
MEM 106·DET 123
Q4·2:22
Kevin Huerter makes 1-foot running dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
MEM 106·DET 123
Q4·2:23
Isaac Jones defensive rebound
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:25
Paul Reed blocks Tyler Burton 's 2-foot reverse layup
·
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:27
Tyler Burton offensive rebound
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:31
Taylor Hendricks misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:36
Paul Reed bad pass turnover (Tyler Burton steals)
·
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:42
Javon Small makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeJon Jarreau assists)
·
MEM 106·DET 121
Q4·2:59
Daniss Jenkins makes 2-foot dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)
·
MEM 103·DET 121
Q4·3:12
Javon Small makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 103·DET 119
+0.6pp
Q4·3:12
Javon Small makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 102·DET 119

Betting line

DET -16.5·O/U 233.5·MEM +900/DET -1600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Memphis Grizzlies, 126–110.

MEM +16.5 cashed (DET won by 16). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Ja MorantMEM
19.6± 8.8high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Ausar ThompsonDET
7.1± 3.2high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Ja MorantMEM
8.1± 3.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

DET

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

114.7

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR