NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5DEN

DEN

41-26

136131

48-18

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -3.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

38.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 16pp · 4th Quarter · 7:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	31	15	6-8	1-2	2-2	+8	5	1
S. JonesF · #21	33	19	8-13	3-6	—	+14	4	2
N. JokicC · #15	39	31	9-17	2-6	11-11	+8	20	12
J. MurrayG · #27	40	39	11-21	2-6	15-15	+13	2	7
C. BraunG · #0	38	11	3-11	2-7	3-4	+22	9	2
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	5	4	1-3	—	2-2	-8	2	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	19	1	0-4	0-3	1-2	-4	2	1
T. JonesG · #5	3	0	—	—	—	-11	0	0
B. BrownG · #11	17	6	2-5	0-2	2-2	-6	1	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	15	10	4-6	2-4	—	-11	2	1
Team		136	44-88	12-36	36-38		47	27
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Roddy, J. Pickett

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	23	8	3-7	2-4	—	-3	7	1
L. KornetC · #7	25	0	—	—	—	-11	3	0
D. FoxG · #4	36	27	10-19	4-10	3-6	-5	3	9
D. VassellG · #24	32	18	5-14	4-10	4-5	-10	1	3
S. CastleG · #5	35	30	7-15	4-8	12-13	-11	11	10
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	27	20	6-10	2-5	6-7	+1	7	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	5	2-12	1-5	—	-2	7	3
C. BryantF · #11	9	10	4-6	1-2	1-1	+7	3	1
M. PlumleeC · #45	8	0	—	—	—	0	2	1
D. HarperG · #2	24	13	6-12	1-3	—	+9	5	5
Team		131	43-95	19-47	26-32		49	34
DNP: K. Olynyk, L. Waters III, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

Home

44-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-95

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-47

36-38

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 29

SA139@

DEN136

Mar 13

DEN136@

SA131today

Apr 4

SA134@

DEN136

Apr 13

DEN128@

SA118

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+13043%

SA-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -3.5↗SpreadBet SA -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat SA 136-131. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 31 PTS, 20 REB, and 12 AST. DEN outscored the other side 42-25 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

115 PTS · 40 REB · 24 AST

GS 109

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 7 REB · 3 AST

GS 11

SAstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 25 REB · 23 AST

GS 71

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 7:15 · 112-113

+16pp→ 59% WP

Spencer Jones · blocks Keldon Johnson's layup

SA4th Quarter · 1:23 · 130-125

+13pp→ 26% WP

Spencer Jones · shooting foul

DEN4th Quarter · 19.8 · 132-129

+11pp→ 85% WP

Stephon Castle · misses 27-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	25	28	41	42	136
SA	37	32	37	25	131

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · SA won 2

Jokic 12

Vassell 9

Strawther 7

Castle 9

Murray 14

Castle 10

Murray 16

Fox 9

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

50%

44-88

45%

43-95

33%

12-36

3PT

40%

19-47

95%

36-38

81%

26-32

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 136·SA 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 136·SA 131
−0.7pp
Q4·1.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 136·SA 131
Q4·1.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 135·SA 131
Q4·1.9
Carter Bryant personal foul
DEN 134·SA 131
−3pp
Q4·4.2
Nikola Jokic enters the game for Spencer Jones
· ·
DEN 134·SA 131
Q4·4.2
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
DEN 134·SA 131
Q4·4.2
Carter Bryant enters the game for Harrison Barnes
·
DEN 134·SA 131
Q4·4.2
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 134·SA 131
Q4·4.2
Harrison Barnes makes 3-foot reverse layup
DEN 134·SA 131
+0.7pp
Q4·6.4
Harrison Barnes offensive rebound
DEN 134·SA 129
+1pp
Q4·7.5
De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
DEN 134·SA 129
−3pp
Q4·12.2
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 134·SA 129
+2pp
Q4·12.2
Bruce Brown enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 133·SA 129
Q4·12.2
Luke Kornet enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
DEN 133·SA 129
Q4·12.2
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 133·SA 129
−0.8pp
Q4·12.2
De'Aaron Fox personal foul
DEN 132·SA 129
Q4·13.9
Julian Champagnie enters the game for Luke Kornet
·
DEN 132·SA 129
Q4·13.9
Luke Kornet personal foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 132·SA 129
−8pp
Q4·16.0
Christian Braun defensive rebound
DEN 132·SA 129
−4pp
Q4·19.8
Stephon Castle misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 132·SA 129
−11pp
Q4·29.0
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
DEN 132·SA 129
+2pp
Q4·32.5
Cameron Johnson misses two point shotBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 132·SA 129
+6pp
Q4·56.2
De'Aaron Fox makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)
·
DEN 132·SA 129
+5pp
Q4·1:00
Jamal Murray makes 6-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
DEN 132·SA 127
−7pp
Q4·1:23
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 130·SA 127
−7pp
Q4·1:23
Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 130·SA 126
+2pp
Q4·1:23
Spencer Jones shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 130·SA 125
+13pp
Q4·1:33
Harrison Barnes defensive rebound
DEN 130·SA 125
+1pp
Q4·1:36
Cameron Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
DEN 130·SA 125
+3pp

Betting line

SA -3.5·O/U 241.5·DEN +130/SA -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets went into San Antonio Spurs and beat them, 136–131. Decided by 5.

DEN +3.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total cleared the 241.5 OVER by 25.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high
Aaron GordonDEN
5.3± 2.9high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high

Blocks

Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Spencer JonesDEN
0.7± 1.0high
Julian ChampagnieSA
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.7%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

118.2

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.3

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR