NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11ATL

BKN

17-49

97108

ATL

35-31

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesATL leads series 3-0VegasATL -15.5

BKN · top performer

Josh Minott

F · #00

23.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

21.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBKN ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 11:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. ClowneyF · #21	20	10	4-9	2-4	—	-4	6	1
D. WolfF · #2	28	8	2-7	1-5	3-4	-9	8	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	21	8	4-6	—	0-2	-6	4	2
D. PowellG · #4	32	11	4-13	1-6	2-2	-17	1	3
B. SarafG · #77	31	10	4-7	0-2	2-2	-13	1	4
Bench
J. WilsonF · #22	17	5	2-5	1-3	—	-1	2	0
E.J. LiddellF · #9	13	4	2-3	0-1	—	-10	6	0
J. MinottF · #00	24	24	6-9	4-7	8-10	+2	3	1
C. JohnsonF · #31	20	3	1-3	1-2	—	-4	3	3
T. MannG · #14	16	8	3-5	—	2-2	+6	2	1
T. EtienneG · #10	18	6	2-5	2-5	—	+1	3	2
Team		97	34-72	12-35	17-22		39	19
DNP: O. Agbaji

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. KispertF · #24	20	7	2-8	1-5	2-2	+6	3	4
O. OkongwuF · #17	30	13	4-10	0-3	5-7	+6	9	0
J. JohnsonF · #1	36	21	7-15	4-7	3-4	+12	9	9
C. McCollumG · #3	30	14	6-17	0-7	2-2	+1	4	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	36	18	5-13	2-8	6-6	+9	2	2
Bench
J. KumingaF · #0	19	2	0-4	—	2-4	-11	9	2
M. GueyeF · #18	5	4	1-1	—	2-2	+2	1	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	31	19	6-12	3-5	4-6	+17	9	1
J. LandaleC · #31	13	4	2-5	0-1	0-2	+3	2	0
G. VincentG · #4	19	6	2-4	2-4	—	+10	3	2
Team		108	35-89	12-40	26-35		51	22
DNP: A. Newell, B. Hield, K. Wallace, R. Dennis, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BKN

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

34-72

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-89

FG %

12-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-40

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-35

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 3-0

Oct 29

ATL117@

BKN112

Feb 22

BKN104@

ATL115

Mar 12

BKN97@

ATL108today

Apr 3

ATL141@

BKN107

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BKN+75012%

ATL-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -15.5↗SpreadBet ATL -15.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat BKN 108-97. J. Johnson led with 21 PTS, 9 REB, 9 AST. ATL outscored the other side 30-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs BKN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BKNstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

47 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 24

Bench(6)

50 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 39

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 59

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 24 REB · 5 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BKN3rd Quarter · 3:37 · 74-74

+6pp→ 27% WP

Josh Minott · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chaney Johnson assists)

BKN4th Quarter · 11:45 · 79-82

+9pp→ 29% WP

Zaccharie Risacher · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BKN	21	29	29	18	97
ATL	30	27	25	26	108

Period scoring

BKN won 2 · ATL won 2

Wolf 5

Risacher 9

Minott 7

Risacher 7

Clowney 8

Alexander-Walker 10

Minott 9

Johnson 9

BKN

ATL

Shooting comparison

BKN

ATL

47%

34-72

39%

35-89

34%

12-35

3PT

30%

12-40

77%

17-22

74%

26-35

Play-by-play · 480 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BKN 97·ATL 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BKN 97·ATL 108
Q4·22.2
Josh Minott makes running dunk
BKN 97·ATL 108
Q4·23.9
Chaney Johnson defensive rebound
·
BKN 95·ATL 108
Q4·27.9
CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper
BKN 95·ATL 108
Q4·47.3
Josh Minott makes free throw 3 of 3
BKN 95·ATL 108
Q4·47.3
Nets offensive team rebound
BKN 94·ATL 108
Q4·47.3
Josh Minott misses free throw 2 of 3
BKN 94·ATL 108
Q4·47.3
Josh Minott makes free throw 1 of 3
BKN 94·ATL 108
Q4·47.3
Zaccharie Risacher shooting foul
BKN 93·ATL 108
Q4·51.5
Zaccharie Risacher makes two point shot
BKN 93·ATL 108
Q4·51.5
Zaccharie Risacher offensive rebound
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·54.6
Josh Minott blocks Zaccharie Risacher 's 4-foot running layup
·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·59.3
Drake Powell bad pass turnover (Onyeka Okongwu steals)
·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:06
CJ McCollum personal foul
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:08
Chaney Johnson defensive rebound
·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:10
Jalen Johnson misses running layup
·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:14
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:20
Drake Powell misses 26-foot three point jumper
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:33
E.J. Liddell defensive rebound
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:36
E.J. Liddell blocks CJ McCollum's driving layup
·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·1:56
Drake Powell makes 1-foot dunk (Chaney Johnson assists)
· ·
BKN 93·ATL 106
Q4·2:08
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
BKN 91·ATL 106
Q4·2:08
Hawks offensive team rebound
BKN 91·ATL 105
Q4·2:08
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
BKN 91·ATL 105
Q4·2:08
Ben Saraf shooting foul
BKN 91·ATL 105
Q4·2:16
E.J. Liddell bad pass turnover (CJ McCollum steals)
·
BKN 91·ATL 105
Q4·2:37
Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)
· ·
BKN 91·ATL 105
Q4·2:47
Ben Saraf bad pass turnover (Zaccharie Risacher steals)
·
BKN 91·ATL 102
+0.5pp
Q4·3:06
CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2
BKN 91·ATL 102

Betting line

ATL -15.5·O/U 226.5·BKN +750/ATL -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Brooklyn Nets, 108–97.

BKN +15.5 cashed (ATL won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Nic ClaxtonCHI · C
CONT7.392
Josh MinottBKN · F
TS%65.092
Noah ClowneyBKN · F
CONT6.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BKN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BKN

league avg

ATL

52.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

44.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

105.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR