NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5ORL

WSH

16-49

131136

ORL

37-28

NBAThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesORL wins series 3-1VegasORL -14.5

WSH · top performer

Bilal Coulibaly

G · #0

20.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Jalen Suggs

G · #4

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 5.8

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. SarrC · #20	23	16	6-12	1-4	3-4	-14	4	0
T. YoungG · #3	21	15	5-7	2-4	3-3	-13	3	6
B. CoulibalyG · #0	37	29	9-21	5-11	6-6	-11	5	5
W. RileyG · #27	33	8	3-10	1-6	1-2	-6	5	0
T. JohnsonG · #12	23	3	1-11	1-6	—	-12	5	1
Bench
A. GillF · #16	16	4	2-5	0-1	—	+5	2	2
L. BlackF · #14	28	12	4-5	2-2	2-2	+14	4	3
J. ChampagnieF · #9	17	12	6-9	0-1	—	+3	4	1
T. VukcevicF · #00	21	11	5-12	1-5	—	-4	11	1
S. CooperG · #13	3	2	0-1	—	2-2	+3	0	1
J. WatkinsG · #5	16	7	2-5	1-4	2-3	-1	1	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	28	12	5-7	0-2	2-2	+11	5	5
Team		131	48-105	14-46	21-24		49	26
DNP: J. Hardy

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	42	18	4-13	0-2	10-14	+11	10	5
T. da SilvaF · #23	41	26	10-18	3-6	3-3	+3	7	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	34	19	8-13	2-3	1-2	+13	11	3
D. BaneG · #3	42	22	7-14	2-5	6-6	+14	1	6
J. SuggsG · #4	34	28	10-17	3-8	5-6	+6	4	8
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	11	7	3-8	1-1	0-1	+4	5	0
J. IsaacF · #1	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	1	0
N. PendaF · #93	14	0	—	—	—	-12	3	2
G. BitadzeC · #35	4	0	0-2	—	—	-4	2	0
J. CarterG · #2	21	6	2-6	2-6	—	-7	2	2
J. HowardG · #13	20	10	3-8	2-3	2-2	-1	6	2
Team		136	47-100	15-34	27-34		52	30
DNP: J. Cain, C. Castleton, A. Morales, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

48-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-100

FG %

14-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-34

21-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

27-34

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL wins series 3-1

Nov 1

ORL125@

WSH94

Jan 7

ORL112@

WSH120

Mar 4

WSH109@

ORL126

Mar 12

WSH131@

ORL136today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+62514%

ORL-95090%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -14.5↗SpreadBet ORL -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat WSH 136-131. J. Suggs paced them with 28 PTS, 4 REB, 8 AST. WSH outscored the other side 42-27 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 47

Bench(7)

60 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 55

ORLstarters 83% of pts

Starters(5)

113 PTS · 33 REB · 24 AST

GS 99

Bench(6)

23 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 9.0 · 120-121

+17pp→ 90% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · personal take foul

WSH4th Quarter · 5.8 · 123-123

+32pp→ 45% WP

Bilal Coulibaly · makes 26-foot three point shot

ORLOT · 1:27 · 131-134

+21pp→ 75% WP

Jalen Suggs · makes 25-foot three pointer

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
WSH	26	30	25	42	8	131
ORL	36	27	33	27	13	136

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · ORL won 3

Sarr 8

Howard 13

Champagnie 6

Suggs 9

Young 6

Suggs 19

Coulibaly 13

Bane 9

Coulibaly 5

Suggs 5

WSH

ORL

Shooting comparison

WSH

ORL

46%

48-105

47%

47-100

30%

14-46

3PT

44%

15-34

88%

21-24

79%

27-34

Play-by-play · 536 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
WSH 131·ORL 136
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
WSH 131·ORL 136
+2pp
OT·5.1
Leaky Black defensive rebound
WSH 131·ORL 136
+0.7pp
OT·8.9
Desmond Bane misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 131·ORL 136
OT·18.9
Tristan da Silva offensive rebound
WSH 131·ORL 136
+3pp
OT·22.9
Jalen Suggs misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 131·ORL 136
−1pp
OT·38.3
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
WSH 131·ORL 136
+1pp
OT·41.2
Tristan da Silva blocks Bilal Coulibaly 's 2-foot driving layup
·
WSH 131·ORL 136
+5pp
OT·56.1
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 131·ORL 136
−4pp
OT·56.1
Jalen Suggs makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 131·ORL 135
+1pp
OT·56.1
Anthony Gill shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 131·ORL 134
+7pp
OT·1:08
Jalen Suggs defensive rebound
WSH 131·ORL 134
+3pp
OT·1:12
Bilal Coulibaly misses 28-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 131·ORL 134
+8pp
OT·1:27
Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
WSH 131·ORL 134
+21pp
OT·1:39
Bilal Coulibaly makes 25-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 131·ORL 131
−19pp
OT·2:04
Desmond Bane makes 13-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
WSH 128·ORL 131
+10pp
OT·2:15
Bilal Coulibaly personal foul
WSH 128·ORL 129
OT·2:28
Bilal Coulibaly bad pass turnover (Tristan da Silva steals)BIG MOMENT
·
WSH 128·ORL 129
+10pp
OT·2:49
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 2-foot dunkBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 128·ORL 129
+7pp
OT·2:49
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 128·ORL 127
+7pp
OT·2:51
Wendell Carter Jr. misses layupBIG MOMENT
·
WSH 128·ORL 127
−7pp
OT·3:03
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
WSH 128·ORL 127
+7pp
OT·3:03
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 127·ORL 127
−1pp
OT·3:03
Desmond Bane shooting foulBIG MOMENT
WSH 126·ORL 127
−14pp
OT·3:08
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
WSH 126·ORL 127
−2pp
OT·3:14
Paolo Banchero misses 13-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
WSH 126·ORL 127
−6pp
OT·3:25
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
WSH 126·ORL 127
+2pp
OT·3:29
Tristan Vukcevic misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
WSH 126·ORL 127
+7pp
OT·3:37
Jalen Suggs personal foul
WSH 126·ORL 127
OT·3:46
Desmond Bane traveling turnoverBIG MOMENT
WSH 126·ORL 127
−8pp

Betting line

ORL -14.5·O/U 236.5·WSH +625/ORL -950

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Washington Wizards, 136–131 in overtime. Decided by 5.

WSH +14.5 cashed (ORL won by 5). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 30.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

ORL

53.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR