NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6CHI

CHI

27-38

130124

32-33

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasGS -6.5

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

33.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Draymond Green

F · #23

15.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 65pp · 4th Quarter · 57.6

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	23	2	0-3	0-1	2-2	-11	5	1
J. SmithF · #25	34	12	3-13	2-10	4-4	+1	12	3
M. BuzelisF · #14	45	41	16-28	5-15	4-5	+8	6	2
L. MillerF · #33	38	17	8-16	1-3	—	+14	11	1
J. GiddeyG · #3	43	21	7-16	4-9	3-4	+14	13	17
Bench
N. RichardsC · #13	28	10	4-7	—	2-3	-5	10	1
T. JonesG · #30	33	22	10-18	2-6	—	+11	4	5
R. DillinghamG · #7	20	5	2-11	1-3	—	-2	3	4
Team		130	50-112	15-47	15-18		64	34
DNP: P. Williams, I. Okoro, C. Sexton, Y. Kawamura

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	29	12	4-5	4-5	—	-19	7	4
G. SantosF · #15	37	17	7-19	3-9	—	-5	5	1
A. HorfordC · #20	34	13	5-18	3-10	—	-7	9	5
B. PodziemskiG · #2	27	9	3-8	1-4	2-2	-20	2	7
W. RichardG · #3	32	8	3-9	1-5	1-1	-4	4	1
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	2	0	—	—	—	-6	1	0
K. PorzingisC · #7	20	17	5-13	2-6	5-5	+4	4	2
G. Payton IIG · #0	22	12	5-7	0-1	2-2	+4	11	2
N. WilliamsG · #19	11	2	1-3	0-1	—	-13	2	0
L. CryerG · #18	21	17	4-7	3-5	6-7	+18	1	2
P. SpencerG · #61	30	17	7-16	3-8	0-1	+18	3	6
Team		124	44-105	20-54	16-18		49	30
DNP: Q. Post, D. Melton, M. Moody

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

Home

50-112

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-105

FG %

15-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-54

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 8

GS123@

CHI91

Mar 11

CHI130@

GS124today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+19534%

GS-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -6.5↗SpreadBet GS -6.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat GS 130-124. M. Buzelis led the way with 41 points and 6 rebounds. CHI outscored the other side 31-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 47 REB · 24 AST

GS 86

Bench(3)

37 PTS · 17 REB · 10 AST

GS 27

GSstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 27 REB · 18 AST

GS 49

Bench(6)

65 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 57

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 12:00 · 57-51

+33pp→ 59% WP

Will Richard · enters the game for Kristaps Porzingis

CHI4th Quarter · 9.0 · 114-117

+18pp→ 34% WP

Gui Santos · personal foul

GS4th Quarter · 57.6 · 110-115

+65pp→ 90% WP

Al Horford · misses tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
CHI	26	31	32	29	12	130
GS	30	21	32	35	6	124

Period scoring

CHI won 2 · GS won 2

Jones 7

Porzingis 7

Giddey 8

Podziemski 4

Buzelis 11

Richard 24

Buzelis 12

Spencer 9

Buzelis 5

Green 6

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

45%

50-112

42%

44-105

32%

15-47

3PT

37%

20-54

83%

15-18

89%

16-18

Play-by-play · 568 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
CHI 130·GS 124
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
CHI 130·GS 124
OT·0.0
Warriors offensive team rebound
CHI 130·GS 124
OT·0.0
Gui Santos misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 130·GS 124
−2pp
OT·9.0
Al Horford defensive rebound
CHI 130·GS 124
OT·10.6
Josh Giddey misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 130·GS 124
+2pp
OT·10.6
Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 130·GS 124
OT·10.6
Gui Santos personal take foul
CHI 129·GS 124
OT·13.0
Will Richard personal take foul
CHI 129·GS 124
−2pp
OT·16.3
Jalen Smith defensive rebound
CHI 129·GS 124
−1pp
OT·19.3
Pat Spencer misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 129·GS 124
−4pp
OT·28.4
Gui Santos defensive rebound
CHI 129·GS 124
OT·32.2
Matas Buzelis misses 24-foot three point jumper
CHI 129·GS 124
+2pp
OT·39.0
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 129·GS 124
−1pp
OT·42.4
Gui Santos misses 23-foot three point jumper
CHI 129·GS 124
−4pp
OT·55.5
Draymond Green defensive rebound
CHI 129·GS 124
+0.7pp
OT·59.0
Matas Buzelis misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 129·GS 124
+3pp
OT·1:08
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
CHI 129·GS 124
−1pp
OT·1:10
Pat Spencer misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 129·GS 124
−4pp
OT·1:23
Tre Jones makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 129·GS 124
−6pp
OT·1:42
Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Spencer assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 127·GS 124
+9pp
OT·1:44
Warriors offensive team rebound
CHI 127·GS 121
+2pp
OT·1:45
Al Horford misses 5-foot two point shot
CHI 127·GS 121
−3pp
OT·1:58
Josh Giddey makes driving layup
CHI 127·GS 121
−4pp
OT·2:06
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
CHI 125·GS 121
−2pp
OT·2:09
Will Richard misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHI 125·GS 121
−5pp
OT·2:20
Matas Buzelis makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Josh Giddey assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 125·GS 121
−16pp
OT·2:28
Leonard Miller enters the game for Nick Richards
· ·
CHI 122·GS 121
OT·2:28
Bulls offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 122·GS 121
−7pp
OT·2:28
Draymond Green blocks Tre Jones 's 4-foot running layupBIG MOMENT
·
CHI 122·GS 121
+7pp

Betting line

GS -6.5·O/U 227.5·CHI +195/GS -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 130–124 in overtime.

CHI +6.5 cashed (GS lost outright). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
6.6± 1.9high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

28.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR