NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12ATL

DAL

21-44

112124

ATL

34-31

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesATL leads series 1-0VegasATL -9.5

DAL · top performer

Klay Thompson

G · #31

14.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 16pp · 1st Quarter · 14.2

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	25	14	6-9	—	2-4	-22	10	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	29	7	3-11	0-4	1-2	-9	6	0
N. MarshallF · #13	30	14	5-9	2-5	2-2	-18	2	4
C. FlaggF · #32	32	14	6-16	1-1	1-2	-13	12	5
M. ChristieG · #00	25	6	2-6	2-6	—	-12	3	1
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	24	16	5-8	2-3	4-4	+7	1	2
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	21	7	3-7	1-2	—	+8	6	6
K. ThompsonG · #31	28	21	8-16	5-11	—	-10	1	1
B. WilliamsG · #10	18	13	3-4	—	7-8	+4	2	5
R. NembhardG · #9	9	0	—	—	—	+5	0	3
Team		112	41-86	13-32	17-22		43	28
DNP: D. Powell, C. Martin, A. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	33	18	7-12	3-5	1-2	+25	9	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	38	27	10-18	2-5	5-7	+14	7	8
C. McCollumG · #3	28	13	5-15	2-7	1-3	+17	9	4
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	37	29	12-19	5-8	—	+19	2	3
D. DanielsG · #5	36	14	6-11	0-2	2-2	+20	7	10
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	15	2	1-3	0-1	—	-1	0	0
M. GueyeF · #18	10	9	3-4	0-1	3-4	-2	5	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	17	4	2-4	0-1	—	-11	3	0
J. LandaleC · #31	15	0	0-5	0-3	—	-13	3	1
G. VincentG · #4	11	8	3-4	2-3	—	-8	0	1
Team		124	49-95	14-36	12-18		45	29
DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

41-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-95

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Mar 10

DAL112@

ATL124today

Mar 19

ATL135@

DAL120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+33023%

ATL-42581%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -9.5↗SpreadBet ATL -9.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat DAL 124-112. J. Johnson paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST. ATL outscored the other side 40-26 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 49% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 33 REB · 11 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

57 PTS · 10 REB · 17 AST

GS 49

ATLstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 34 REB · 27 AST

GS 94

Bench(5)

23 PTS · 11 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL1st Quarter · 14.2 · 24-40

+16pp→ 94% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · blocks Daniel Gafford's layup

DAL4th Quarter · 9:34 · 95-97

+8pp→ 29% WP

Klay Thompson · makes 27-foot three pointer (Khris Middleton assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 8:41 · 97-99

+10pp→ 76% WP

Klay Thompson · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	26	27	38	21	112
ATL	40	24	31	29	124

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · ATL won 2

Williams 9

Okongwu 9

Christie 6

Marshall 18

Middleton 10

Alexander-Walker 9

Thompson 8

Johnson 13

DAL

ATL

Shooting comparison

DAL

ATL

48%

41-86

52%

49-95

41%

13-32

3PT

39%

14-36

77%

17-22

67%

12-18

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·4.7
shot clock turnover
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·28.2
Jalen Johnson defensive rebound
·
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·31.8
Khris Middleton misses 10-foot fade away jump shot
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·38.7
Khris Middleton defensive rebound
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·42.5
CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·58.3
Cooper Flagg makes tip shot
DAL 112·ATL 124
Q4·58.3
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:00
Cooper Flagg misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:08
Onyeka Okongwu traveling turnover
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:17
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:26
P.J. Washington misses 23-foot three point jumper
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:34
Jalen Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk (Dyson Daniels assists)
· ·
DAL 110·ATL 124
Q4·1:36
Khris Middleton bad pass turnover (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
·
DAL 110·ATL 122
+0.7pp
Q4·1:38
Onyeka Okongwu personal foul
DAL 110·ATL 122
−0.6pp
Q4·1:41
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
DAL 110·ATL 122
Q4·1:45
CJ McCollum misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 110·ATL 122
Q4·1:59
Cooper Flagg makes alley oop layup (Khris Middleton assists)
·
DAL 110·ATL 122
Q4·2:00
P.J. Washington enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
DAL 108·ATL 122
Q4·2:00
Max Christie enters the game for Naji Marshall
·
DAL 108·ATL 122
Q4·2:00
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 108·ATL 122
Q4·2:00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)
· ·
DAL 108·ATL 122
Q4·2:19
Cooper Flagg makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Naji Marshall assists)
·
DAL 108·ATL 119
Q4·2:31
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
·
DAL 106·ATL 119
Q4·2:36
Khris Middleton bad pass turnover (Jalen Johnson steals)
· ·
DAL 106·ATL 116
+0.8pp
Q4·2:48
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
·
DAL 106·ATL 116
Q4·2:48
Hawks offensive team rebound
DAL 106·ATL 115
−0.5pp
Q4·2:48
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
DAL 106·ATL 115
Q4·2:48
Daniel Gafford shooting foul
DAL 106·ATL 115
+0.8pp

Betting line

ATL -9.5·O/U 240.5·DAL +330/ATL -425

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Dallas Mavericks, 124–112.

ATL -9.5 cashed (won by 12). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

ATL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR