NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16SAC

CHI

26-38

110126

SAC

15-50

NBASun, Mar 8FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasCHI -4.5

CHI · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #2

25.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Russell Westbrook

G · #18

26.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 14pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:43

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	22	4	1-6	1-3	1-2	0	5	3
I. OkoroF · #35	24	9	2-5	2-5	3-4	-9	1	1
M. BuzelisF · #14	30	20	5-12	2-6	8-9	-4	8	4
T. JonesG · #30	32	12	5-10	0-3	2-3	-16	1	5
J. GiddeyG · #3	34	15	6-13	2-6	1-1	0	12	10
Bench
J. SmithF · #25	20	4	1-6	1-5	1-4	-6	3	0
P. WilliamsF · #44	17	5	2-6	1-4	—	-18	1	0
L. MillerF · #11	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
N. RichardsC · #13	21	10	3-8	0-1	4-7	+5	11	1
C. SextonG · #2	22	28	9-12	7-9	3-4	-9	2	3
R. DillinghamG · #7	15	3	1-5	1-2	—	-17	5	0
Y. KawamuraG · #8	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		110	35-84	17-45	23-34		49	27

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	39	13	6-12	1-1	—	+17	9	3
M. RaynaudC · #42	38	26	10-20	0-1	6-6	+15	11	2
R. WestbrookG · #18	35	23	7-17	3-5	6-6	+10	11	12
D. PlowdenG · #29	35	16	6-13	2-7	2-3	+4	3	2
N. CliffordG · #5	31	8	3-7	2-4	—	+9	6	3
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	10	5	2-4	—	1-2	+1	4	0
M. MonkG · #0	31	30	11-24	3-10	5-5	+16	4	5
D. CarterG · #22	6	3	1-4	—	1-1	+3	4	3
K. HayesG · #3	16	2	1-4	0-1	—	+5	3	3
Team		126	47-105	11-29	21-23		55	33
DNP: D. McDermott, I. Stevens, P. Baldwin Jr.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

35-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-105

FG %

17-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-29

23-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Oct 30

SAC113@

CHI126

Mar 9

CHI110@

SAC126today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI-20567%

SAC+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗SpreadBet CHI -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SAC beat CHI 126-110. R. Westbrook stuffed the line with 23 PTS, 11 REB, and 12 AST. SAC outscored the other side 35-26 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

60 PTS · 27 REB · 23 AST

GS 53

Bench(8)

50 PTS · 22 REB · 4 AST

GS 30

SACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 40 REB · 22 AST

GS 80

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI2nd Quarter · 11:44 · 28-30

+7pp→ 56% WP

Rob Dillingham · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)

CHI2nd Quarter · 2:31 · 49-60

+8pp→ 24% WP

Josh Giddey · enters the game for Jalen Smith

CHI3rd Quarter · 7:43 · 67-79

+14pp→ 18% WP

Russell Westbrook · misses 1-foot tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	25	26	38	21	110
SAC	30	35	39	22	126

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · SAC won 4

Sexton 8

Monk 7

Sexton 8

Raynaud 14

Sexton 12

Plowden 10

Buzelis 10

Monk 32

CHI

SAC

Shooting comparison

CHI

SAC

42%

35-84

45%

47-105

38%

17-45

3PT

38%

11-29

68%

23-34

91%

21-23

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 110·SAC 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 110·SAC 126
Q4·18.1
shot clock turnover
CHI 110·SAC 126
Q4·39.2
Russell Westbrook defensive rebound
CHI 110·SAC 126
Q4·41.5
Rob Dillingham misses driving layup
CHI 110·SAC 126
+1pp
Q4·48.9
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 110·SAC 126
Q4·48.9
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 110·SAC 125
Q4·48.9
Yuki Kawamura personal foul
CHI 110·SAC 124
Q4·59.9
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
CHI 110·SAC 124
Q4·1:03
Leonard Miller misses 27-foot three point jumper
CHI 110·SAC 124
Q4·1:16
Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 1
CHI 110·SAC 124
Q4·1:16
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Tre Jones
·
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Jalen Smith
·
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Leonard Miller enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Jalen Smith shooting foul
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:16
Malik Monk makes driving layup
CHI 110·SAC 123
Q4·1:27
Matas Buzelis personal foul
CHI 110·SAC 121
+0.5pp
Q4·1:34
Bulls delay of game violation
CHI 110·SAC 121
Q4·1:34
Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)
·
CHI 110·SAC 121
Q4·1:40
Precious Achiuwa makes driving layup
CHI 107·SAC 121
Q4·1:49
Matas Buzelis makes 4-foot alley oop dunk (Josh Giddey assists)
·
CHI 107·SAC 119
Q4·1:51
Josh Giddey defensive rebound
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·1:54
Russell Westbrook misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·2:20
Josh Giddey out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·2:21
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·2:24
Malik Monk misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·2:45
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
CHI 105·SAC 119
Q4·2:47
Patrick Williams misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHI 105·SAC 119

Betting line

CHI -4.5·O/U 236.5·CHI -205/SAC +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

acramento Kings held off Chicago Bulls, 126–110.

SAC +4.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

SAC

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR